If they plan to shut down goods transfer through Zeebrugge, definitely let us know.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
If they plan to shut down goods transfer through Zeebrugge, definitely let us know.
Words of HABIT
Active Member
We all can't wait until Tesla is listed on the S&P500, sooner the better, right?
Why is everyone here o'k to short SPY but it is a sin to sell TSLA to lock in gains? Because TSLA is not yet on the S&P500? The index selling will clobber S&P500, so TSLA shareholders should that their lucky stars TSLA is not in the S&P.
A 7.0 earthquake under Fremont is a black swan event. Within 24 hours, rebuilding would begin. Wuhan is still in lockdown, three months later. This is not a drill. Don't panic, however we all need to take care of yourselves and your families and take the warnings by your governments seriously. Wash your hands. Do not gather in large groups, social distancing, be aware of your surrounds. Limit your contact with others. Help reduce the spread of C19.
Ironically the C19 is serving to clean the World's air buy effectively shutting down industry, far quicker than any planned initiative. I live over a flight path to Pearson Toronto International Airport. Typically a plane would fly over the house en route to landing every two minutes. There are much fewer planes flying over my house this morning. The sky looks bluer and clearer. Nothing can take away our hope.
Why is everyone here o'k to short SPY but it is a sin to sell TSLA to lock in gains? Because TSLA is not yet on the S&P500? The index selling will clobber S&P500, so TSLA shareholders should that their lucky stars TSLA is not in the S&P.
A 7.0 earthquake under Fremont is a black swan event. Within 24 hours, rebuilding would begin. Wuhan is still in lockdown, three months later. This is not a drill. Don't panic, however we all need to take care of yourselves and your families and take the warnings by your governments seriously. Wash your hands. Do not gather in large groups, social distancing, be aware of your surrounds. Limit your contact with others. Help reduce the spread of C19.
Ironically the C19 is serving to clean the World's air buy effectively shutting down industry, far quicker than any planned initiative. I live over a flight path to Pearson Toronto International Airport. Typically a plane would fly over the house en route to landing every two minutes. There are much fewer planes flying over my house this morning. The sky looks bluer and clearer. Nothing can take away our hope.
Why do you assume that everyone here is ok to short SPY?
I have sold none of my TSLA shares. I do not plan on selling any of my shares for a few years.
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Exxon Mobil shares slide 10% premarket as RBC downgrades to underperform
Exxon has the highest dividend breakeven in RBC's coverage universe and analysts are expecting all of its business to be challenged in 2020. They downgraded their stock price target to $40 from $55. RBC is now expecting Brent crude prices to average $42 a barrel in 2020 and $46 a barrel in 2021. "Our cash flow estimates for XOM are 30% lower in 2020 and 22% lower in 2021," the analysts wrote in a note to clients. RBC is expecting near=term cuts in the Permian basis, and expects spending on major LNG projects to be deferred, impacting volume forecasts for the period from 2020 to 2025. Exxon shares have fallen 52% in the last 12 months,
Exxon has the highest dividend breakeven in RBC's coverage universe and analysts are expecting all of its business to be challenged in 2020. They downgraded their stock price target to $40 from $55. RBC is now expecting Brent crude prices to average $42 a barrel in 2020 and $46 a barrel in 2021. "Our cash flow estimates for XOM are 30% lower in 2020 and 22% lower in 2021," the analysts wrote in a note to clients. RBC is expecting near=term cuts in the Permian basis, and expects spending on major LNG projects to be deferred, impacting volume forecasts for the period from 2020 to 2025. Exxon shares have fallen 52% in the last 12 months,
LN1_Casey
Draco dormiens nunquam titillandus
Well, they are calling it the "Boomer Remover" virus, so I guess by inheritance, yes.
Just playin'.
Weird day when the CNBC.com headlines aren't bothering to clickbait and FUD Tesla:
Breaking News: Stocks making the biggest moves in the premarket: Boeing, American Air, Disney, Apple & more
Breaking News: Stocks making the biggest moves in the premarket: Boeing, American Air, Disney, Apple & more
anthonyj
Stonks
I’m okay with this decline vs the $180 drop cuz the whole stock market world gets to suffer with us
Unlikely, as the Belgian government has already stated that Belgium is too small, and has too many border crossings to make this feasible.
I’m more worried about one of the other neighbouring countries to close the border with Belgium. E.g. France could do this. France already did this in the past as an anti-terrorism measure.
Exactly, i'm ok i'm a little overexposed on Tesla since they are they most innovative and nimble companies out there. They were built to thrive in a potentially challenging economy. No dealerships to support. Limited inventory. No advertising machine to support. Home deliveries. Online sales. etcI’m okay with this decline vs the $180 drop cuz the whole stock market world gets to suffer with us
(Speaking from the perspective of not being leveraged and am somewhat diversified since we are not all in the same investment situations).
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Lots of places are closing borders these days to people, although thusfar I haven't seen any that ban the movement of goods. Namely because that would be shooting yourself in the foot for no good reason. There is no reason to suspect bulk goods as being a meaningful carrier of the disease.
bhtooefr
Active Member
FWIW, looking at what SPY is doing premarket... expect a level 1 circuit breaker to be hit almost immediately after open.
...and I wouldn't be surprised by a level 2 circuit breaker later in the day at this rate.
...and I wouldn't be surprised by a level 2 circuit breaker later in the day at this rate.
Dreadnought
Member
Reports from Italy indicate that the number of critical cases exceeds the ICU capacity, leading to a higher death rate. Countries that give free rein to the virus (Brazil? UK?) will be completely overwhelmed, resulting in critical cases percentage almost equal to mortality. A flu-like outcome requires the curve to remain flat.
It's ridiculous how much more Tesla has been dropping than the broader market. Early on sure, maybe taking some wind out of hype premium, but now? I can't wait for the shorts to get burned again in 3-12 months.
Last week I put some cash into SPY puts and some inverse ETFs. I was crazy up mid-week, but then flat Friday. I started to get worried that I'd underestimated the market until I went out Saturday night to run to get some cash for my generator. Even here in KC the streets were probably down to 20% of normal traffic.
Even with the pre-market price of $463 Tesla is still up 10,8% for the year. I think there are hardly any stocks left that are still green for 2020.
Conclusions of Goldman Sachs Investee call where 1,500 companies dialed in. The key economic takeaways were:
50% of Americans will contract the virus (150m people) as it's very communicable. This is on a par with the common cold (Rhinovirus) of which there are about 200 strains and which the majority of Americans will get 2-4 per year.
70% of Germany will contract it (58M people). This is the next most relevant industrial economy to be effected.
Peak-virus is expected over the next eight weeks, declining thereafter.
The virus appears to be concentrated in a band between 30-50 degrees north latitude, meaning that like the common cold and flu, it prefers cold weather. The coming summer in the northern hemisphere should help. This is to say that the virus is likely seasonal.
Of those impacted 80% will be early-stage, 15% mid-stage and 5% critical-stage. Early-stage symptoms are like the common cold and mid-stage symptoms are like the flu; these are stay at home for two weeks and rest. 5% will be critical and highly weighted towards the elderly.
Mortality rate on average of up to 2%, heavily weighted towards the elderly and immunocompromised; meaning up to 3m people (150m*.02). In the US about 3m/yr die mostly due to old age and disease, those two being highly correlated (as a percent very few from accidents). There will be significant overlap, so this does not mean 3m new deaths from the virus, it means elderly people dying sooner due to respiratory issues. This may however stress the healthcare system.
There is a debate as to how to address the virus pre-vaccine. The US is tending towards quarantine. The UK is tending towards allowing it to spread so that the population can develop a natural immunity. Quarantine is likely to be ineffective and result in significant economic damage but will slow the rate of transmission giving the healthcare system more time to deal with the case load.
China’s economy has been largely impacted which has affected raw materials and the global supply chain. It may take up to six months for it to recover.
Global GDP growth rate will be the lowest in 30 years at around 2%.
S&P 500 will see a negative growth rate of -15% to -20% for 2020 overall.
There will be economic damage from the virus itself, but the real damage is driven mostly by market psychology. Viruses have been with us forever. Stock markets should fully recover in the 2nd half of the year.
In the past week there has been a conflating of the impact of the virus with the developing oil price war between KSA and Russia. While reduced energy prices are generally good for industrial economies, the US is now a large energy exporter, so there has been a negative impact on the valuation of the domestic energy sector. This will continue for some time as the Russians are attempting to economically squeeze the American shale producers and the Saudi’s are caught in the middle and do not want to further cede market share to Russia or the US.
Technically the market generally has been looking for a reason to reset after the longest bull market in history.
There is NO systemic risk. No one is even talking about that. Governments are intervening in the markets to stabilize them, and the private banking sector is very well capitalized. It feels more like 9/11 than it does like 2008.
50% of Americans will contract the virus (150m people) as it's very communicable. This is on a par with the common cold (Rhinovirus) of which there are about 200 strains and which the majority of Americans will get 2-4 per year.
70% of Germany will contract it (58M people). This is the next most relevant industrial economy to be effected.
Peak-virus is expected over the next eight weeks, declining thereafter.
The virus appears to be concentrated in a band between 30-50 degrees north latitude, meaning that like the common cold and flu, it prefers cold weather. The coming summer in the northern hemisphere should help. This is to say that the virus is likely seasonal.
Of those impacted 80% will be early-stage, 15% mid-stage and 5% critical-stage. Early-stage symptoms are like the common cold and mid-stage symptoms are like the flu; these are stay at home for two weeks and rest. 5% will be critical and highly weighted towards the elderly.
Mortality rate on average of up to 2%, heavily weighted towards the elderly and immunocompromised; meaning up to 3m people (150m*.02). In the US about 3m/yr die mostly due to old age and disease, those two being highly correlated (as a percent very few from accidents). There will be significant overlap, so this does not mean 3m new deaths from the virus, it means elderly people dying sooner due to respiratory issues. This may however stress the healthcare system.
There is a debate as to how to address the virus pre-vaccine. The US is tending towards quarantine. The UK is tending towards allowing it to spread so that the population can develop a natural immunity. Quarantine is likely to be ineffective and result in significant economic damage but will slow the rate of transmission giving the healthcare system more time to deal with the case load.
China’s economy has been largely impacted which has affected raw materials and the global supply chain. It may take up to six months for it to recover.
Global GDP growth rate will be the lowest in 30 years at around 2%.
S&P 500 will see a negative growth rate of -15% to -20% for 2020 overall.
There will be economic damage from the virus itself, but the real damage is driven mostly by market psychology. Viruses have been with us forever. Stock markets should fully recover in the 2nd half of the year.
In the past week there has been a conflating of the impact of the virus with the developing oil price war between KSA and Russia. While reduced energy prices are generally good for industrial economies, the US is now a large energy exporter, so there has been a negative impact on the valuation of the domestic energy sector. This will continue for some time as the Russians are attempting to economically squeeze the American shale producers and the Saudi’s are caught in the middle and do not want to further cede market share to Russia or the US.
Technically the market generally has been looking for a reason to reset after the longest bull market in history.
There is NO systemic risk. No one is even talking about that. Governments are intervening in the markets to stabilize them, and the private banking sector is very well capitalized. It feels more like 9/11 than it does like 2008.
I’ve had home delivery. Not a big deal. I even had a dealer pick me up at the airport with the car and take me home to complete the paper work.
Okay, that’s it. This is completely ridiculous. As soon as the market opens I’m buying options.
HG Wells
Martian Embassy
Most stocks are near their close on Thursday.
Can't decide what to do.
Buy, sell or open a bottle of Corona.
Can't decide what to do.
Buy, sell or open a bottle of Corona.
tinm
2020 Model S LR+ Owner
Forget cigarettes. Or toilet paper. The new currency, even blows away Bitcoin, is Tamanishiki Super Premium Short Grain Rice. One 4.4lb bag on Walmart costs almost as much as the new Roadster.
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