Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[TheTalkingMule]

Warren Buffett is somewhere doing backflips of joy right now.

 

[JusRelax]

Tesla Plunges as RBC Slashes Price Target Due to Coronavirus Pandemic

https://www.thestreet.com/investing...coronavirus?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO&yptr=yahoo

"In a research note, Spak said he was lowering his price target to $380 from $530 while maintaining an underperform rating on the stock amid what he expects to be constrained demand in the second quarter, which may force the company to cut production. Spak now expects 364,600 deliveries for 2020 and 572,100 deliveries for 2021, down from his prior estimates of 524,200 and 618,000, respectively."

If Tesla delivers less than 400,000 cars this year, then I'll be sure to buy myself a farting unicorn @anthonyj

 

[corduroy]

I haven't added to my position in about 2 years, but I'm a buyer today at this level.

 

[Artful Dodger]

This is madness, I can't take any more.
Good bye...

Lol! The Mission of Tesla will involve dragging the World* kicking and screaming to adopt renewable energy.

I just can't decide if this market meltdown is the kicking part or the screaming part...

Cheers!

* "You can always count on Americans to do the right thing - after they've tried everything else." - Winston Churchill

 

[NicoV]

Lots of places are closing borders these days to people, although thusfar I haven't seen any that ban the movement of goods. Namely because that would be shooting yourself in the foot for no good reason. There is no reason to suspect bulk goods as being a meaningful carrier of the disease.

Some borders are closed for some goods, see e.g. Subscribe to read | Financial Times . It is not clear to me whether Tesla Model 3s would fall in the category ‘components needed for manufacturers’. There’s definitely an issue here since Ursula von der Leyen urged the member states this weekend not to close off the internal EU market.

 

[FrankSG]

Conclusions of Goldman Sachs Investee call where 1,500 companies dialed in. The key economic takeaways were:

50% of Americans will contract the virus (150m people) as it's very communicable. This is on a par with the common cold (Rhinovirus) of which there are about 200 strains and which the majority of Americans will get 2-4 per year.

70% of Germany will contract it (58M people). This is the next most relevant industrial economy to be effected.

Peak-virus is expected over the next eight weeks, declining thereafter.

The virus appears to be concentrated in a band between 30-50 degrees north latitude, meaning that like the common cold and flu, it prefers cold weather. The coming summer in the northern hemisphere should help. This is to say that the virus is likely seasonal.

Of those impacted 80% will be early-stage, 15% mid-stage and 5% critical-stage. Early-stage symptoms are like the common cold and mid-stage symptoms are like the flu; these are stay at home for two weeks and rest. 5% will be critical and highly weighted towards the elderly.

Mortality rate on average of up to 2%, heavily weighted towards the elderly and immunocompromised; meaning up to 3m people (150m*.02). In the US about 3m/yr die mostly due to old age and disease, those two being highly correlated (as a percent very few from accidents). There will be significant overlap, so this does not mean 3m new deaths from the virus, it means elderly people dying sooner due to respiratory issues. This may however stress the healthcare system.

There is a debate as to how to address the virus pre-vaccine. The US is tending towards quarantine. The UK is tending towards allowing it to spread so that the population can develop a natural immunity. Quarantine is likely to be ineffective and result in significant economic damage but will slow the rate of transmission giving the healthcare system more time to deal with the case load.

China’s economy has been largely impacted which has affected raw materials and the global supply chain. It may take up to six months for it to recover.

Global GDP growth rate will be the lowest in 30 years at around 2%.

S&P 500 will see a negative growth rate of -15% to -20% for 2020 overall.

There will be economic damage from the virus itself, but the real damage is driven mostly by market psychology. Viruses have been with us forever. Stock markets should fully recover in the 2nd half of the year.

In the past week there has been a conflating of the impact of the virus with the developing oil price war between KSA and Russia. While reduced energy prices are generally good for industrial economies, the US is now a large energy exporter, so there has been a negative impact on the valuation of the domestic energy sector. This will continue for some time as the Russians are attempting to economically squeeze the American shale producers and the Saudi’s are caught in the middle and do not want to further cede market share to Russia or the US.

Technically the market generally has been looking for a reason to reset after the longest bull market in history.

There is NO systemic risk. No one is even talking about that. Governments are intervening in the markets to stabilize them, and the private banking sector is very well capitalized. It feels more like ‪9/11 than it does like 2008.

Thanks so much for sharing this! Where did you get this information?

And "investee call with 1500 companies dialed in" means this is the opinion of investment companies that are clients of GS? Or are those 1500 companies GS is invested in?

 

[JusRelax]

Wow did we literally just go straight from market open to market halt? LOL

 

[FrankSG]

Well... looks like it took us like 10 seconds to hit the first circuit breaker?

 

[lafrisbee]

34,200 people died in the US last year from the flu and there wasn’t one post on this board about it affecting TSLA. Where were you then? We haven’t even approached 1% of that figure with covid19.

It is just like the Stock Market.... Fear and stupidity are a Tsunami...Sensibility and facts are the tide.

 

[thait84]

Well... looks like it took us like 10 seconds to hit the first circuit breaker?

We'll see how long it takes until the second circuit breaker.

 

[juanmedina]

Wow did we literally just go straight from market open to market halt? LOL

no wonder Robinhood is down lol

 

[ZeApelido]

Has anything fundamentally changed about Tesla’s long term value?

Will COVID ruin the global economy on a long term basis?

If you answer no to both, this may be a great buying opportunity.

I might have to pull out those $5

 

[HG Wells]

Some stock quotes (Yahoo Finance) are stuck at Fridays close.

Example MCD

 

[Unpilot]

Are market's locked...I am getting no updates at all

 

[KarenRei]

Has anything fundamentally changed about Tesla’s long term value?

Will COVID ruin the global economy on a long term basis?

No, and no.

Are market's locked...I am getting no updates at all

Yes, circuit breaker.

no wonder Robinhood is down lol

With Robinhood, you never know Could be a circuit breaker, could be that someone didn't stop to think that not all years have the same number of days per month

 

[dw4ngg]

OK... soooo who's buying this dip?

 

[StealthP3D]

OK... soooo who's buying this dip?

The market has to open before it can be called a dip, LOL!

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

Can’t they just close the stock market for a couple of months like everything else? Isn’t the stock market floor a place of mass gathering? Are the traders able to maintain three foot separation?

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Are you implying that there are no patients in ICU for reasons other than the virus, who might not be elderly?

It's just a general hysteria.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Well... looks like it took us like 10 seconds to hit the first circuit breaker?

Nope. It halted at T-0 (there's even video out already).

Cheers!