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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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In 2018 when Kilauea erupted on the Big Island in the lower east rift zone in parts of Leilani Estates and then later flowed down to the ocean wiping out many communities, Hawaii County Mayor Harry Kim issued several emergency proclamations that prevented people from staying in the area and returning during the eruption period. There was danger from the lava but also health related issues from deadly SO2 and H2S gases and volcanic glass shards in the air. The edicts were enforced by local law enforcement authorities.
So Harry Kim decided, not the sheriff. (Capt Janeway would be proud) ;)
 
I think a large part of the rally to 900 was brought on by confidence in the balance sheet and now that we are dropping below the convertible bond prices the balance sheet is looking a lot worse at a time of increased uncertainty which has an almost delta hedging like magnification effect on the movement down. At least someone convinced Elon to raise when he did, but he should have raised more and the company could have reduced some of it's leverage. I am a buyer below my current cost basis (257) and I think we could get there. I have confidence Elon will pull the company through this but it's going to be interesting...
 
I think a large part of the rally to 900 was brought on by confidence in the balance sheet and now that we are dropping below the convertible bond prices the balance sheet is looking a lot worse at a time of increased uncertainty which has an almost delta hedging like magnification effect on the movement down. At least someone convinced Elon to raise when he did, but he should have raised more and the company could have reduced some of it's leverage. I am a buyer below my current cost basis (257) and I think we could get there. I have confidence Elon will pull the company through this but it's going to be interesting...
There's nothing big due in 2020, the next big one is 1.38B in March 2021.
 

Looks like this article was time stamped at 7:29 pm EST, so that was before the news this afternoon from the sheriff and other officials, along with the headlines of closing most operations on CNBC and other outlets.
Will be interesting how this plays out, but I have feeling Elon will ignore the orders based on his attitude towards the virus so far.
 
Why or how would anyone think making cars at this point is an "essential" business?

Argue what you will but trying to argue that point sounds crazy to me.

If the law says I owe 40% of my income as taxes, it doesn't allow me to question whether the law makes good sense or is fair, I just pay the 40%. Likewise, if the law defines my business as an "essential" business, I don't question the law or whether it makes sense, I just follow the law as intended.

Let's look at what the law actually says:

"i. The minimum necessary activities to maintain the value of the business’s inventory, ensure security, process payroll and employee benefits, or for related functions."

The business's inventory consists of auto parts and assembled vehicles. Because car sales of all brands are allowed to proceed under this law, Tesla has a right to replace the cars it sells to maintain the value of its inventory. Apparently, the sheriff would not make a good lawyer or Judge which is not surprising because he's not trained as either.

However, the order does prohibit Tesla from making significantly more cars than it sells. Or stockpiling parts in excess of what it needs to build cars to replace those sold. I don't see either of these limitations as being a problem unless Tesla can't sell every car it can make. Because in that case it could be helpful to stockpile certain parts or even entire cars to a limited degree.
 
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I think a large part of the rally to 900 was brought on by confidence in the balance sheet and now that we are dropping below the convertible bond prices the balance sheet is looking a lot worse at a time of increased uncertainty which has an almost delta hedging like magnification effect on the movement down. At least someone convinced Elon to raise when he did, but he should have raised more and the company could have reduced some of it's leverage. I am a buyer below my current cost basis (257) and I think we could get there. I have confidence Elon will pull the company through this but it's going to be interesting...


the balance sheet will remain healthy even with last years number tesla generated free cash flow. Plus they have nearly 4.6b additional from the two raise. Calling debt or balance sheet risk is purely fear mongering.
 
In the NV policy on "non-essential" business closures, the Gov writes:

"Restaurants Auto Plants will be allowed to remain open if they can provide food home delivery or curbside pickup. Diners Drivers will not be allowed to eat enter inside of restaurants showrooms"​

Now CA, can we just FTFY? Common sense says if you can get take-out, why not cars?
 
Read last night that the 3 Detroit auto manufacturers were in negotiations with UAW about health safety for the workers due to virus. They want plants shut down and mfgrs don’t. Understood some proposal was to be presented tonight at 6pm. I think they’ll shut down in the end.

Husband had his MS in for annual maintenance today at Service center in Bay area and said while there were a few cancellations—got him an earlier appt time—there were other cars there too.


Just saw this story on this come across from the Detroit Free Press: "Detroit's 3 CEOs, UAW agree to 'partial' shutdown. Basically reduced shifts and clean down periods and distancing.

Detroit 3 CEOs, UAW agree to 'partial' shutdown

Another article from Associated Press with some different background: Auto workers union presses companies to close US factories | WTOP
 
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Will be interesting how this plays out, but I have feeling Elon will ignore the orders based on his attitude towards the virus so far.

I disagree. I think Elon will comply with the order. Completely.

Which means he will continue replacing inventory as it sells. Only if the County updates the order to exclude the manufacture of cars would Elon stop making cars. In other words, Elon will comply with whatever the County orders.
 
Here is the most important bit about how Tesla is talking with the local authorities and the reasoning:

That DHS NCI argument makes more sense than anything else I’ve heard. If that's coming from Tesla legal... well, I still think they should have coordinated with local gov't; but it sounds like they're on pretty firm ground. Federal law should prevail over state and local.
 
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Looks like this article was time stamped at 7:29 pm EST, so that was before the news this afternoon from the sheriff and other officials, along with the headlines of closing most operations on CNBC and other outlets.
Will be interesting how this plays out, but I have feeling Elon will ignore the orders based on his attitude towards the virus so far.
Tesla isn't ignoring anything. They were clear that they were communicating with all relevant authorities in CA regarding the federal government's guidance related to national security infrastructure.
 
Seems to me that shorts are desperate to close Fremont because they know that a week of production might be the difference between S and P index inclusion versus non inclusion.

It’s a factory. I’ve never seen people getting up close and personal while making cars. It’s a perfect place for social distancing.

I’m currently working on a house build. The only thing I have to remember - do not shake hands with the tradies when they arrive on site. It’s easy to keep distance and be physically productive.
 
I think a large part of the rally to 900 was brought on by confidence in the balance sheet and now that we are dropping below the convertible bond prices the balance sheet is looking a lot worse at a time of increased uncertainty which has an almost delta hedging like magnification effect on the movement down. At least someone convinced Elon to raise when he did, but he should have raised more and the company could have reduced some of it's leverage. I am a buyer below my current cost basis (257) and I think we could get there. I have confidence Elon will pull the company through this but it's going to be interesting...

Well the first indication we will have of anything is Q1 deliveries.

Company finances have been fairly opaque since Q4 2019 earnings and the capital raise...

Production and delivery seem fairly normal so far, but no one outside the company has solid numbers..

So the stock is mostly moving on macro fears, not actual company results in recent weeks.
 
aa


It was long overdue. The world was getting complacent. Life was too good. Everyone is up to their noses in debt (in Canada). Borrow borrow borrow, buy buy buy.

Some hard times is good for us. People used to tell me "Take it like a man". But that'd be too misogynist today... or is it sexit? Or not respecting my pronoun and assuming I am man?

Wow. Take it easy. No need to be so judgmental. People are suffering and dieing. No need to gloat if your boat is currently unaffected.
 
Yeah, graduating college and entering the work force into the second worst economy downturn in the history of the United States was super fun and easy.

My college career day was the day of the 1987 crash. I had interviews all that day.

I put graduation off a semester and had a redo in the spring.

I got a number of offers and had a successful career.

Best of luck to you.
 
The sheriff was not clear. The Alameda County supervisor was not clear.
The only thing clear about the order, is that it's not clear.

I said Tesla was clear in their email that they were communicating with all of the relevant authorities. You made some bogus claim that Tesla was going to do whatever they want when in fact there is a reasoning that they are discussing.
 
This isn't going to be 2 days or 3 weeks. It's going to be 2 or 3 months, and than likely a reprise in the Fall once the weather gets colder again.

We need to find a way to keep the economy alive while managing the spread. Crippling industry is not helping the sick. Common sense precautions in a facility with no current outbreak should be enforced, but work must continue if the community is to continue.