Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Ameliorate]

The pattern continues to repeat itself. Expect a down day tomorrow after a modest rally today, continuing with steady declines to EOW.

Then the weekend.

Then Monday will be a bloodbath from bad news over the weekend.

The real question is where the bottom is and how much further we have yet to fall.

I didn't really think there was even remotely a change we would see $180 again on $TSLA but this is a black swan. When the swan is black, there is no predicting what will happen next.

Just to be contrarian No Idea where the bottom is, but I sure like the idea of feds giving a business interruption insurance to companies who do not lay off employees. (Not that I would get anything up here, it just sounds like one of the more logical and fair solutions)

Hedge fund manager: I'm buying stocks because investors are misinterpreting coronavirus hysteria

"While this will undoubtedly create an economic shock, the stock market reaction has gone completely too far, Sandler contended.

Sandler said even if U.S. GDP falls by 10% in the second quarter, which is a more dire forecast than the 5% prediction from Goldman Sachs, it equates to a loss of around $500 billion.

“We have lost $10 trillion in market cap” due to the market’s steep declines from its February highs, he said. “It is so far out of proportion I don’t even want to talk about the numbers.”

And with the government likely to provide fiscal relief measures to cushion some of the economic consequences, Sandler said the opportunities to buy stocks are there.

In particular, Sandler said a promise of business interruption insurance from the government would reduce worry, both from business managers who are concerned about their companies’ fate and workers who are concerned about their next paycheck."

 

[re04586]

I said Tesla was clear in their email that they were communicating with all of the relevant authorities. You made some bogus claim that Tesla was just going to do whatever they want when in fact there is a reasoning that they are discussing.

So you're saying they were clearly communicating, but the actual communication wasn't clear?
Got it, thanks.

 

[SMAlset]

This isn't going to be 2 days or 3 weeks. It's going to be 2 or 3 months, and than likely a reprise in the Fall once the weather gets colder again.

We need to find a way to keep the economy alive while managing the spread. Crippling industry is not helping the sick. Common sense precautions in a facility with no current outbreak should be enforced, but work must continue if the community is to continue.

No reason to think that warmer temps will stop the virus. Countries like Australia that are in their summer are experiencing the spread of the virus. Australia has 539 confirmed cases, 6 deaths with 23 recovered (from state and teritory health departments). Today NSW reports 57 new cases and one death.

 

[sparcs]

So you're saying they were clearly communicating, but the actual communication wasn't clear?
Got it, thanks.

What's the solution for Tesla? Not to talk to the relevant authorities in CA at all?

 

[Krugerrand]

I didn't know Russ and Lora were cats!

 

[StealthP3D]

Clearly Elon has always been extremely deferential to experts with proper academic credentials.

Yes, and it almost killed him when he had malaria and two medical doctors, with proper academic credentials, at two different hospitals, misdiagnosed his malaria and failed to give him the life-saving medicine. His life was saved only because a third doctor happened upon his chart and recognized malaria as malaria and prescribed him the life-saving anti-malarial drugs. The one doctor who knew how to diagnose malaria told him the medicine would likely not have worked if he had gone one more day without it.

I can hardly blame him for not taking the word of every "professional" with proper academic credentials! In my life, I have numerous experiences of being more competent than the credentialed professionals who gave poor advice. Needless to say, I will question idiots every time they say something that flies in the face of reason, even if they have the proper academic credentials.

 

[Jayjs20]

My college career day was the day of the 1987 crash. I had interviews all that day.

I put graduation off a semester and had a redo in the spring.

I got a number of offers and had a successful career.

Best of luck to you.

Wishing someone luck is a way to tell them to piss off, you're done with them.

Also, 2009 was 11 years ago.

 

[Singuy]

I am looking at a -500 point Dow futures drop and think "hey not bad". They really need to close the market. It's warping how I see reality.

 

[phantasms]

As someone who jumped at 700, bought at 640 and jumped again at 580, I've thought about this a lot lately. I'm thinking in 10-15 days when convention centers are filled with hospital beds and I'm getting a constant stream of NYtimes notifications on celebrities and politicians that have died, that'll be the time. I do hope that never happens and I completely miss the bottom.

TSLA bottom is getting closer according to my not factually backed up theory.

City asks New York state for use of Javits Center as ‘medical surge facility’

 

[dl003]

Part (99.99%) of me wishing Elon is fighting tooth and nail to secure SP inclusion this Q.
A guy can only hope.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

This isn't going to be 2 days or 3 weeks. It's going to be 2 or 3 months, and than likely a reprise in the Fall once the weather gets colder again.

We need to find a way to keep the economy alive while managing the spread. Crippling industry is not helping the sick. Common sense precautions in a facility with no current outbreak should be enforced, but work must continue if the community is to continue.

In the middle of June I'm going to be walking around worried about the flu? That seems.....unlikely. There are no indications this virus is terribly difficult to contain once you get your act together and(god forbid) have the ability to test anyone you feel needs testing.

We are a week to 10 days from every country except the idiots(US, Italy, Spain, UK, maybe another straggler or 2) having their act fully together and this thing fully contained to the point where they can ride it out with as much damage as the seasonal flu.

Shouldn't we be discussing this in the Coronavirus thread?

 

[Singuy]

Part (99.99%) of me wishing Elon is fighting tooth and nail to secure SP inclusion this Q.
A guy can only hope.

He needs fsd. He was working on something, maybe preview 2.0?

 

[GaryW]

Wishing someone luck is a way to tell them to piss off, you're done with them.

Also, 2009 was 11 years ago.

Wow!
I missed any reference to 2009.

I said 1987, the day of the single largest percentage drop of the DJIA in history.

It was a surreal day, going to interviews with people trying to call their brokers instead of interviewing college kids.

As far as I know, we all got form letters from those ‘interviews’. No one was hiring for a while.

I wanted to reassure you. This is happening, it’s bad, and it’s likely to end.

I hope it all works out for you.

 

[Navin]

All Elon needs to do is rename Tesla factory to Not-a-factory. Done. Problem solved.

 

[MC3OZ]

All Elon needs to do is rename Tesla factory to Not-a-factory. Done. Problem solved.

How about Not-a-Factory-Not-Making-Cars-Nothing-To-See-Here?

I bet that is still fewer letters than Icelandic for "Hello".

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Just to be contrarian No Idea where the bottom is, but I sure like the idea of feds giving a business interruption insurance to companies who do not lay off employees. (Not that I would get anything up here, it just sounds like one of the more logical and fair solutions)

Hedge fund manager: I'm buying stocks because investors are misinterpreting coronavirus hysteria

"While this will undoubtedly create an economic shock, the stock market reaction has gone completely too far, Sandler contended.

Sandler said even if U.S. GDP falls by 10% in the second quarter, which is a more dire forecast than the 5% prediction from Goldman Sachs, it equates to a loss of around $500 billion.

“We have lost $10 trillion in market cap” due to the market’s steep declines from its February highs, he said. “It is so far out of proportion I don’t even want to talk about the numbers.”

And with the government likely to provide fiscal relief measures to cushion some of the economic consequences, Sandler said the opportunities to buy stocks are there.

In particular, Sandler said a promise of business interruption insurance from the government would reduce worry, both from business managers who are concerned about their companies’ fate and workers who are concerned about their next paycheck."

Most of the market cap loss has simply brought the S&P 500 back down to historical averages in terms of P/E ratios and P/S ratios and that sort of thing. The market was grossly overbought at the end of it's historic 12 years bull run. Most of this drop so far is simply correction of the index back to historical averages. So I think we still have further to drop, because the real recession isn't actually priced in yet. But sure let's listen to this hedge fund manager who desperately wants people to buy so he can save his hedge fund. I'm sorry, I'm basically a 1 man hedge fund with principal and sole investor myself so I have to look to my own portfolio, I don't have time for his.

 

[Jayjs20]

Most of the market cap loss has simply brought the S&P 500 back down to historical averages in terms of P/E ratios and P/S ratios and that sort of thing. The market was grossly overbought at the end of it's historic 12 years bull run. Most of this drop so far is simply correction of the index back to historical averages. So I think we still have further to drop, because the real recession isn't actually priced in yet. But sure let's listen to this hedge fund manager who desperately wants people to buy so he can save his hedge fund. I'm sorry, I'm basically a 1 man hedge fund with principal and sole investor myself so I have to look to my own portfolio, I don't have time for his.

^Yeah, what he said

https://www.isabelnet.com/wp-conten...vs.-USA-National-Income-Corporate-Profits.png

 

[Artful Dodger]

No reason to think that warmer temps will stop the virus. Countries like Australia that are in their summer are experiencing the spread of the virus. Australia has 539 confirmed cases, 6 deaths with 23 recovered (from state and teritory health departments). Today NSW reports 57 new cases and one death.

Yeah, I'm not the POTUS... it's not the Summer or Fall weather that leads to waning and waxing waves of reinfection: its the lifting of interventions that determines the risk of resurgence.

Individual response to COVID-19 'as important' as government action

 

[Artful Dodger]

In the middle of June I'm going to be walking around worried about the flu? That seems.....unlikely. There are no indications this virus is terribly difficult to contain once you get your act together and(god forbid) have the ability to test anyone you feel needs testing.

We are a week to 10 days from every country except the idiots(US, Italy, Spain, UK, maybe another straggler or 2) having their act fully together and this thing fully contained to the point where they can ride it out with as much damage as the seasonal flu.

Shouldn't we be discussing this in the Coronavirus thread?

Covid-19 is not the flu, don't expect it to progress like a flu epidemic. This is relevant in this thread because people are buying in the morning and I'm saying there is a real possibility that this outbreak still isn't under control by Q3.

 

[MC3OZ]

No reason to think that warmer temps will stop the virus. Countries like Australia that are in their summer are experiencing the spread of the virus. Australia has 539 confirmed cases, 6 deaths with 23 recovered (from state and teritory health departments). Today NSW reports 57 new cases and one death.

The weather has turned a bit colder in Australia, the regular flu seasons as started a bit early.... people are assuming weather is a factor like regular flu.. perhaps it is on the margins..

I just think there is more natural "social distancing" in summer, people are often outside, exercising and eating a healthier diet, so naturally spaced a bit wider. Warmer temps might not stop it but colder weather and more clustering indoors with other people might make it worse.

I think the big challenge for Australia is to get though the next winter, we are now fairly well prepared with good risk management in place.
What we need is more testing.. that is coming...