Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Thekiwi]

Part (99.99%) of me wishing Elon is fighting tooth and nail to secure SP inclusion this Q.
A guy can only hope.

I don’t think S&P inclusion is at all on anyone’s mind at Tesla at present - it would make no difference for day to day operations either way.

 

[InstiTes]

I wouldn't lose sleep over this "factory shutdown". I believe we will see a correction from the City of Fremont shortly advising that Tesla is indeed an essential business and can continue operating. Same with Giga in Reno. Sheriff clearly overstepped his pay grade, probably got pressured into making this announcement by the surely unbiased media barraging him all day.

 

[InstiTes]

Though it does amuse me to think of all these short and distort types on twitter being giddy and excited going to bed only to wake up to a nice surprise tomorrow morning (hopefully I don't jinx it!)

 

[jhm]

Can Tesla manufacture ventilators, face masks, and other critical medical supplies?

Tesla has proven itself to be a very flexible manufacturer, capable of rapid response. We need that sort of capability to get through this pandemic.

 

[myt-e-s-l-a]

 

[Artful Dodger]

Can Tesla manufacture ventilators, face masks, and other critical medical supplies?

Tesla has proven itself to be a very flexible manufacturer, capable of rapid response. We need that sort of capability to get through this pandemic.

Didn't Jack Ma send a plane load of 500K test kits and 1M masks from Shanghai?

Alibaba's Jack Ma Sends Boxes of Coronavirus Test Kits and Masks to U.S.

I hear he's a friend of Elon's...

Cheers!

 

[Quesder]

looks like most of people here had already sold their shares when Curtis (sorry I don't spell right, but you know, the long term bullish master) sold at 5xx?
Some of you might remember my post about "didn't sell at 7xx and my parents are going to rebuke me".
At that time some people encouraged me. To be honest I have some complain about that now, but, I should have sold my shares when I saw Curtis sell all his shares.

Now what should I to do? It is a torture to see the SP goes down everyday, no decent rebound at all. Only some short intra-day rebound that lasts for 5 minutes. And in after hours, another 5%. The next day, another 13% if macro is bad, or 5% if macro rebound.

My average cost was $234, but I don't think I can sustain the torture if the price goes below $350.
When I see some people are adding more shares along the way, I really think : " are you sure? Curtis has sold"

My cash can support my family for roughly 5 months; I may sell my MSFT stock to get another 12 months of living expense. But my job and my wife's job are not very stable. Should I keep holding and maybe in 2022 the SP could go back to $500?

When I recall one of you said he sold at $557 because of panic, I really wish I was panic enough and did that.

 

[StealthP3D]

@StealthP3D, I always enjoy your posts and you have always (unless I missed some) recommended just hanging to your shares through this major dip. What are your current thoughts please?

I've been through a number of market disruptions in my investing career. I'm always surprised at how much panic I see. I think it has to do with people thinking money is more important than life itself. Also with a very short time horizon. I'm lucky that I see time on a different scale. I've always lived happily and easily within my means so these events have never bothered me. I just look at a chart of the DOW and know that as the population increases, so does the economy over time (and the businesses that we depend upon grow and become more valuable). It's the time value of money. It's always been a bumpy ride and it helps to not look at it like a casino.

I haven't sold a single TSLA share. I've picked up a few more shares through writing puts at an effective price of $498 (assuming the puts are exercised which I assume they will be) and this morning I bought some Jan 2022 $650 calls for only $91 each. Due to a lot of very profitable calls that I closed out in January, my brokerage account is worth more than ever (save for Jan-Feb of this year). And I still have a lot of cash beyond the proceeds from my TSLA calls due to liquidating two other major positions in January because the market was acting "toppy". I didn't sell TSLA because it wasn't over-valued over the next couple of years. The stocks I sold, I simply couldn't see a way for them to grow into their valuations in any realistic time period so I sold them. I'm still about 40% in cash and will continue to deploy more cash at intervals as the market goes up or down. I'll deploy it steadily in a reserved manner as the market goes down and in larger amounts, maybe all at once, if it starts to look like we've passed peak fear. I won't deploy the last 20% cash. That buffer is necessary for me due to my status as being retired, having almost no earned income, and being more concentrated in TSLA. This will vary with different situations obviously. But I do feel that cash buffer helps me be more comfortable with my brokerage account being so concentrated in one stock.

The main thing is to not assign excessive meaning to the current trading price. If the invested money is not destined for other purposes other than long-term growth, it's easy to make light of the current price. Companies are always valued less highly during periods of uncertainty but the thing to remember is that things always settle back down eventually, growth resumes and there is investment capital looking for a home so the valuations will rise up to reflect that growth and demand for growth investments. In the interim, I think Tesla is increasing, not decreasing, it's competitive advantage. Current prices are a bargain going forward even if they end up touching a much lower price point in coming weeks (which they may or may not do). Nobody can predict these things because human nature is involved and it's not up to me to worry my brain over it.

 

[deffu]

If the law says I owe 40% of my income as taxes, it doesn't allow me to question whether the law makes good sense or is fair, I just pay the 40%. Likewise, if the law defines my business as an "essential" business, I don't question the law or whether it makes sense, I just follow the law as intended.

Let's look at what the law actually says:

"i. The minimum necessary activities to maintain the value of the business’s inventory, ensure security, process payroll and employee benefits, or for related functions."

The business's inventory consists of auto parts and assembled vehicles. Because car sales of all brands are allowed to proceed under this law, Tesla has a right to replace the cars it sells to maintain the value of its inventory. Apparently, the sheriff would not make a good lawyer or Judge which is not surprising because he's not trained as either.

However, the order does prohibit Tesla from making significantly more cars than it sells. Or stockpiling parts in excess of what it needs to build cars to replace those sold. I don't see either of these limitations as being a problem unless Tesla can't sell every car it can make. Because in that case it could be helpful to stockpile certain parts or even entire cars to a limited degree.

My understanding is Sheriff dept only enforces the order rolled out by the city/county. how come they dictate the order?

 

[dw4ngg]

looks like most of people here had already sold their shares when Curtis (sorry I don't spell right, but you know, the long term bullish master) sold at 5xx?
Some of you might remember my post about "didn't sell at 7xx and my parents are going to rebuke me".
At that time some people encouraged me. To be honest I have some complain about that now, but, I should have sold my shares when I saw Curtis sell all his shares.

Now what should I to do? It is a torture to see the SP goes down everyday, no decent rebound at all. Only some short intra-day rebound that lasts for 5 minutes. And in after hours, another 5%. The next day, another 13% if macro is bad, or 5% if macro rebound.

My average cost was $234, but I don't think I can sustain the torture if the price goes below $350.
When I see some people are adding more shares along the way, I really think : " are you sure? Curtis has sold"

My cash can support my family for roughly 5 months, but my job and my wife's job are not very stable. Should I keep holding and maybe in 2022 the SP could go back to $500?

When I recall one of you said he sold at $557 because of panic, I really wish I was panic enough and did that.

Can you pls let us know when you sell?
May be indication of max fear (sorry the context is a bit selfish)
My advice: you held this long; are you testing your threshold for pain or investing?

 

[S3XY]

All that trouble to put up all those toilet-roll holders only to then mount the rolls the wrong way around. What a freak!!

Everyone knows that bog-roll has to hang OVER, not UNDER. Jeeze, some people!

Apparently you don't have a cat.

 

[thait84]

looks like most of people here had already sold their shares when Curtis (sorry I don't spell right, but you know, the long term bullish master) sold at 5xx?
Some of you might remember my post about "didn't sell at 7xx and my parents are going to rebuke me".
At that time some people encouraged me. To be honest I have some complain about that now, but, I should have sold my shares when I saw Curtis sell all his shares.

Now what should I to do? It is a torture to see the SP goes down everyday, no decent rebound at all. Only some short intra-day rebound that lasts for 5 minutes. And in after hours, another 5%. The next day, another 13% if macro is bad, or 5% if macro rebound.

My average cost was $234, but I don't think I can sustain the torture if the price goes below $350.
When I see some people are adding more shares along the way, I really think : " are you sure? Curtis has sold"

My cash can support my family for roughly 5 months; I may sell my MSFT stock to get another 12 months of living expense. But my job and my wife's job are not very stable. Should I keep holding and maybe in 2022 the SP could go back to $500?

When I recall one of you said he sold at $557 because of panic, I really wish I was panic enough and did that.

Don't let anyone bully you into keeping or selling your shares. None of us here know what the stock price will do.

I do think we are in a bit of an echo chamber and people that bring an alternate point of view get downvoted to hell.

You need to figure out what is right for your circumstances. A lot of it is about regret management. Are you going to regret it more if the stock shoots up and you miss the run? Or will you regret not having a cash buffer when this situation is prolonged?

 

[jhm]

Can Tesla manufacture ventilators, face masks, and other critical medical supplies?

Tesla has proven itself to be a very flexible manufacturer, capable of rapid response. We need that sort of capability to get through this pandemic.

DIY Ventilators Might Ease Supply Shortage Amid Coronavirus Pandemic
The ‘Surreal’ Frenzy Inside the US’ Biggest Mask Maker

 

[Buckminster]

Jeez, it's just a pandemic people! We have had 4 years of Brexit (and it still hasn't really happened), this is nothing... Climate change remains the real crisis. Make what you want from my half jokes.

To cheer you up, you may want to watch:

I haven't watched it yet but it is bound to lift your spirits.

Alternatively, this is a great article from the UK:
Tesla Model Y deliveries begin ahead of 2022 UK debut | Autocar
Autocar have been bullish before on Tesla and then pretend Tesla doesn't exist when comparing the killers to other killers. You have got to laugh about the poor understanding on UK prices. M3 costs £39,500 whereas they talk about a £26k MY.... Should get people looking on Tesla.com.

S&P 500 and a positive P/E ratio remain key for me:

OK. Well, given the positive results of 2019Q3/Q4, with any (GAAP-)profit in 2020Q2, Tesla could have a loss of up to 248M$ in Q1 and still qualify for S&P 500 inclusion w. Q2.

Chance of inclusion by June = ~30%?
Chance of inclusion by September = ~80%? (down from 90%)

 

[MC3OZ]

Don't let anyone bully you into keeping or selling your shares. None of us here know what the stock price will do.

I do think we are in a bit of an echo chamber and people that bring an alternate point of view get downvoted to hell.

You need to figure out what is right for your circumstances. A lot of it is about regret management. Are you going to regret it more if the stock shoots up and you miss the run? Or will you regret not having a cash buffer when this situation is prolonged?

At present I think the split is more like 60% negative 40% positive, the split with the share price at 900 was more like 99% positive 1% negative.

Not only is forum sentiment variable, it is a poor investment guide.

 

[Singuy]

looks like most of people here had already sold their shares when Curtis (sorry I don't spell right, but you know, the long term bullish master) sold at 5xx?
Some of you might remember my post about "didn't sell at 7xx and my parents are going to rebuke me".
At that time some people encouraged me. To be honest I have some complain about that now, but, I should have sold my shares when I saw Curtis sell all his shares.

Now what should I to do? It is a torture to see the SP goes down everyday, no decent rebound at all. Only some short intra-day rebound that lasts for 5 minutes. And in after hours, another 5%. The next day, another 13% if macro is bad, or 5% if macro rebound.

My average cost was $234, but I don't think I can sustain the torture if the price goes below $350.
When I see some people are adding more shares along the way, I really think : " are you sure? Curtis has sold"

My cash can support my family for roughly 5 months; I may sell my MSFT stock to get another 12 months of living expense. But my job and my wife's job are not very stable. Should I keep holding and maybe in 2022 the SP could go back to $500?

When I recall one of you said he sold at $557 because of panic, I really wish I was panic enough and did that.

You have to realize that some of the people here play the TSLA game because our risk tolerance is super high. I mean not many can throw hundreds of thousands for that 10x potential gain. So from that, please note that some of us don't really care about this money since our living expenses are taken care off to the point that we have F U money to throw around at this company.

If you are not in this situation, then don't be lead by people who are in this situation. So if cash is tight or you can't tolerate the negative days then it's time to let it go.

 

[S3XY]

So, I just escaped the coronavirus thread and came back here ... to read about coronavirus.

What's the consensus on Model 3 and Y sales this quarter? Presumably since the factory is still producing, and they haven't taken advantage of the panic to suspend Fremont for a few weeks, that means they have customers to deliver to, right?

I did see an anecdotal story about someone who received their Model Y, yet only placed their order in January 2020, which would imply that a lot of people are deferring their Model Y orders. But their Model Y backlog is probably pretty deep.

And then, China Model 3. That factory is still producing too, isn't it? Wouldn't that also imply good 1st quarter sales in China?

Just seems to be that if the above is true, Tesla could have a really positive surprising 1st quarter. I mean, it should be less than pre-corona projections, but they should look really good compared to many other companies?

I am anxiously awaiting my delivery. Ever since Tesla learned that I was getting home delivery (and I assume they couldn't complete delivery by EOQ) I've heard nothing. I even called my advisor and left a message asking for an update. Crickets. So I think there are plenty of deliveries taking place in this quarter. If there were not then they would be moving mine along. I expect I'll get an update in a week or two to take delivery in early April. But my main point is that the end of quarter push is likely alive and well.

 

[StealthP3D]

My understanding is Sheriff dept only enforces the order rolled out by the city/county. how come they dictate the order?

The Sheriff's department does not dictate an order of the County Health Dept. If the Sheriff told Tesla to shut down, Tesla would simply defer to the County Health Dept., not what the Sheriff said. Sheriff's do not interpret the law - the people who issued the directive do. If Tesla disagreed with County Health (which I doubt it will come to) then, and only then, it would be a matter for the courts. The Sheriff can go pound sand.

 

[Buckminster]

Is it fair to say that Governments are mostly looking to match the number of patients requiring hospital care to the number of beds/ventilators available?

Can one nurse look after twice the number of C19 patients compared to normal patients? Governments should be able to double the beds and ventilators in a month - nurses are not so easy to come by.

 

[kengchang]

Coronavirus: Tesla factory remains open; Musk goes to work

Looks like factory is going to be closed

Ultimately, the offices of Alameda County Administrator Susan Muranishi, County Counsel Donna Ziegler and County Public Health Officials made the decision about Tesla, Kelly said. The company was not alone in questioning the order, although it appears to be the largest employer to have done so.

Tesla, like other Alameda County businesses, can maintain basic functions under the shelter-in-place order, Kelly said. Those functions include maintaining the factory’s infrastructure and office work such as payroll but do not not include the manufacturing of electric cars.