sorry but FCA reported that they had a confirmed worker in their plant and let’s face it maybe more but unknown for lack of tests or not meeting all the testing requirements but still able to pass on. Don’t see how that’s really any different as it’s highly contagious.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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- elon is an ass
sorry but FCA reported that they had a confirmed worker in their plant and let’s face it maybe more but unknown for lack of tests or not meeting all the testing requirements but still able to pass on. Don’t see how that’s really any different as it’s highly contagious.
At open yesterday, you didn't know Fremont is shutting down for an indeterminate period. If fact that's not totally certain even now.
As @FrankSG said, for every market-timer who guesses right, there is one who guesses wrong. Good luck guessing when "it hits lows."
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If it is closed when they do the earnings report, they will address it..
Q1 P&D is the one thing that may shift the price up... not that it definitely will, but it might..
IMO the big risk with trying to time the market is being too greedy or too fearful, you need to recognise a good price, and good timing when you see it...
I never said I knew it would close. I was just updating as I had asked the question before the opening yesterday about going to cash.
I dont expect to pick the exact bottom. But I see a real risk of the price dropping to the recent (last year) local lows around $180 if factory imperiled. Lower still if its closed for more than a few weeks.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
You shouldn't always worry that the glass is half full.
If anything, good numbers in the face of adversity will impress even more. It will be simple enough to calculate how many more would have been made with two more weeks worth of production.
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
The main concern of Russ Mitchell from the L.A. Times is likely to keep getting his paycheck - which to a large extent comes from ad revenue from traditional auto.
All it takes to motivate a media employee like Mitchell to go on a crusade against Tesla, would be for his supervisor to accidentally let him see a spreadsheet with what fraction of their revenue that comes from traditional auto ads - then someone like Mitchell would draw his own conclusions - and we end up with printed news articles on the heroism of activist short sellers like the Shorty Airforce.
Same for Lora Kolodny.
There doesn't have to be any actual collusion or anti-Tesla investment from these media people behind this.
Okay.
If TSLA goes lower than $180, I will sell everything else in sight to buy more.
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Nasdaq pre-market trading opened 5 minutes ago, and TSLA dropped to $380-ish values. I'm wondering to what extent the shutdown news was priced in yesterday, when TSLA dropped 10% relative to macro indices. Today there were further macro drops, which probably magnifies the TSLA drop.
$3xx does feel like Groundhog Day.
On the plus side, I'd expect Tesla to accelerate GF3 expansion and reallocate battery supply from Fremont to GF3. There's no news yet whether the Nevada restrictions affect GF1 though.
$3xx does feel like Groundhog Day.
On the plus side, I'd expect Tesla to accelerate GF3 expansion and reallocate battery supply from Fremont to GF3. There's no news yet whether the Nevada restrictions affect GF1 though.
I don't know about journalists in general, but it is well-known that journalists covering financial news are explicitly, financially incentivized by their employer to write market moving stories.
That's about as certain as you can get, that there is going to be biased reporting.
"Elon's Essential Auto Parts"
Current situation vis a vis stock price was probably unavoidable given macro climate. Tried to sound the alarm on this 2 months ago but was muzzled by forum politics. Looking forward.
TSLA rally was in some part a credit story. As the bonds came into the money, debt risk decreased.
Bonds and CDC now priced at a significant higher risk of default which is somewhat self fulfilling.
Tesla made a genius move by raising capital just as this was about to hit american shores. CFO proved himself yet again.
China contemplating temporarily removing exhaust restrictions - on the face of it will cause some of the selling we are seeing.
China vehicle traffic are almost back to normal levels. We have even seen higher vehicle traffic than same time last year.
But all public transport, rail, bus, metro and air are running at 25% capacity.
Auto manufacturers, and especially Tesla could surprise to the upside here as everyone who used public transport for part or full of their transportation needs will be looking to get their own transportation.
Most of our time at this point should be spend analyzing Tesla financials - making sure they can weather short/midterm slowdown. I'm highly confident they can and I think the current market priced probability of default is significantly too high.
TSLA rally was in some part a credit story. As the bonds came into the money, debt risk decreased.
Bonds and CDC now priced at a significant higher risk of default which is somewhat self fulfilling.
Tesla made a genius move by raising capital just as this was about to hit american shores. CFO proved himself yet again.
China contemplating temporarily removing exhaust restrictions - on the face of it will cause some of the selling we are seeing.
China vehicle traffic are almost back to normal levels. We have even seen higher vehicle traffic than same time last year.
But all public transport, rail, bus, metro and air are running at 25% capacity.
Auto manufacturers, and especially Tesla could surprise to the upside here as everyone who used public transport for part or full of their transportation needs will be looking to get their own transportation.
Most of our time at this point should be spend analyzing Tesla financials - making sure they can weather short/midterm slowdown. I'm highly confident they can and I think the current market priced probability of default is significantly too high.
mickificki
Member
Nasdaq pre-market trading opened 5 minutes ago, and TSLA dropped to $380-ish values. I'm wondering to what extent the shutdown news was priced in yesterday, when TSLA dropped 10% relative to macro indices. Today there were further macro drops, which probably magnifies the TSLA drop.
$3xx does feel like Groundhog Day.
On the plus side, I'd expect Tesla to accelerate GF3 expansion and reallocate battery supply from Fremont to GF3. There's no news yet whether the Nevada restrictions affect GF1 though.
Not 100% but beginning to look like GF1 will be shut down.
Regarding the discussion on Critical Infrastructure, this is a quote from a Reuters article today on Wall Street dealing with WFH issues. (“Wall Street tempers begin to flare over coronavirus work-from-home policy”, March 18).
“However, since financial services is considered a critical infrastructure industry by the Department of Homeland Security, many bankers are still reporting to the office.”
Tesla very well has a point about auto manufacturing being exempt just like banking and other DHS classified industries. How many bailouts of the auto industry can America afford to do. I suspect similar measures that the Detroit companies have agreed to will be implemented at Fremont if not already doing so and it seems that GigaNevada is using some of them. This article was linked to earlier in this thread (sorry don’t recall by who). Tesla Giga Nevada Taking Similar C19 Precautions As Giga Shanghai
“However, since financial services is considered a critical infrastructure industry by the Department of Homeland Security, many bankers are still reporting to the office.”
Tesla very well has a point about auto manufacturing being exempt just like banking and other DHS classified industries. How many bailouts of the auto industry can America afford to do. I suspect similar measures that the Detroit companies have agreed to will be implemented at Fremont if not already doing so and it seems that GigaNevada is using some of them. This article was linked to earlier in this thread (sorry don’t recall by who). Tesla Giga Nevada Taking Similar C19 Precautions As Giga Shanghai
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Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
I'm wondering when global macro will bottom out - because I think with the Fremont shutdown out of the way and getting priced in today TSLA will largely be a function of macro forces going forward. There might be a bit of a 'sell the rumor, buy the news' mechanics to TSLA today as well. Trading volume was already elevated this week, with 21m and 24m shares trading volume on Monday and Tuesday, which suggests good buying interest at these price levels. ARK bought 30k more TSLA shares yesterday.
Infection numbers from many countries in Europe are showing early signs of successful containment efforts, but the U.S. is probably still going downhill, especially with more testing capacity becoming available which will show an increase beyond the true spreading speed, just due to more cases now getting diagnosed and reported.
I have a substantial chunk of dry powder set aside for such black swan events, but I'm a bit hesitant to utilize it until the U.S. bottom is clear - as U.S. sentiment tends to drive macro sentiment to a large degree. What do others think, what will be signs of the bottom of the U.S. panic?
Infection numbers from many countries in Europe are showing early signs of successful containment efforts, but the U.S. is probably still going downhill, especially with more testing capacity becoming available which will show an increase beyond the true spreading speed, just due to more cases now getting diagnosed and reported.
I have a substantial chunk of dry powder set aside for such black swan events, but I'm a bit hesitant to utilize it until the U.S. bottom is clear - as U.S. sentiment tends to drive macro sentiment to a large degree. What do others think, what will be signs of the bottom of the U.S. panic?
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Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
BTW., this exemption includes Tesla short selling hedge funds as well. Rather the double standard.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
BTW., Fremont and GF1 are not just critical "manufacturing sector", but also "energy sector" companies, so the federal prohibition on interfering with the operations of these critical national infrastructure factories would apply there too.
A question is whether Tesla wants to fight that fight in the courts though.
Sean Wagner
Member
Seconded. I'll go over their last statement again too to aid in my comprehension and better understand the conversation, as so many denizens of this thread are far better placed to expound on this than I.
I do think Tesla's relative [!] financial health should one day reveal itself beyond a bouncy stock market cap. It's the absolute, scenario-based contingencies that should prove interesting now.
Some big US companies have successfully issued debt just these past days, if I recall correctly.
Which is not the same as many others like Boeing maxing out their credit lines.
[It was 13.something billion USD, by the way.]
We will know the bottom once it's far behind us. Reality bites.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
In other news, EU financial regulators are shining more sunlight into the dark corners of the financial world:
I'd expect more short selling restrictions to come in place globally.
EU toughens short-selling rules as markets hit by coronavirus
The ESMA’s new rules – which also apply to the UK under the post-Brexit transition period – mean any short-selling position that accounts for 0.1% or more of a company’s outstanding shares must be announced to the market, compared with the previous threshold of 0.2%.
The measures, which come into force immediately and will last three months, have been prompted by severe stock market losses that have caused some of the biggest ever one-day falls for indexes such as the FTSE 100.
The ESMA’s new rules – which also apply to the UK under the post-Brexit transition period – mean any short-selling position that accounts for 0.1% or more of a company’s outstanding shares must be announced to the market, compared with the previous threshold of 0.2%.
The measures, which come into force immediately and will last three months, have been prompted by severe stock market losses that have caused some of the biggest ever one-day falls for indexes such as the FTSE 100.
I'd expect more short selling restrictions to come in place globally.
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