Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[junas]

Fremont closure is definitely priced in. In addition, most profit taking and forced selling is probably over now. We also know Q1 numbers are not a total disaster. I would call this bottom if we had some visibility when the virus threat is over.

What makes me worried though is that our ministry of health (in Finland) is now talking about estimated 6 months of quarantine measures rather than few weeks. Officially it's still only one month, but they warned this morning it's very likely to be continued. It wouldn't be the first time they talk nonsense, but situation is getting quite bad here since testing is done only for seriously ill persons. Official figures are a joke when people with clear symptoms cannot get tested anymore (one of my friends got quite ill two days back and still not getting tested). Of course California is not Finland and Finland is not Italy (luckily). All countries handle this differently and we don't yet know where the results will be worst. I'm not worried at all about Fremont ability to produce cars during Q2 and Q3, but instead getting more worried about near-future demand. I just cannot see people buying cars in Europe during this summer if they cannot drive them. I really hope US and China will be different because still holding 50% of my original shares.

I have both fear of missing out and fear of buying too high. Really hard decisions.

 

[Fact Checking]

I fear this is probably not the bottom, US still did not see a lot of Covid cases.
Let's hope they do not see them, but we'll know in 1-2 weeks.

On a related note, Covid-19 testing has finally accelerated massively in the U.S.:

Coronavirus numbers by state

Note the last line and the "Negative" column: the negatives/tests ratio is now 9.5x - which is roughly the ratio South Korea used for their successful containment and tracing efforts.

Crude mortality rate has halved from 2.7% to 1.4%, due to the better testing coverage. With more testing I'd expect it to drop further, assuming ICU capacity is holding up ...

Growth rate is still around 25%, which is the early exponential phase.

Macros will I believe react to this U.S. outbreak data very directly.

 

[LJS22]

This is the first time Tesla has gone against futures since this downturn started. Probably won’t hold, but Gotta start somewhere

 

[JBRR]

Adam jonas upgrade from under to equal weight. PT 480->460$.

 

[dl003]

I do think we are nearing a bottom. Conversations are now about actions "ventilator" "respirator" "checks"

 

[LJS22]

I do think we are nearing a bottom. Conversations are now about actions "ventilator" "respirator" "checks"

I wouldn’t bet on it, but what do I know haha I’m just excited thinking about the spring up we are going to hit in the near future that’s going to trap a bunch of these shorts and force them to cover thus making them buy back our shares...it shall be glorious, Again.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Italy's lockdown will be prolonged, prime minister says, as death toll spikes and hospitals struggle

Germany now thinking about a complete quarantene lockdown of entire Bavaria (link). This is getting tough.

 

[Ellec]

I do think we are nearing a bottom. Conversations are now about actions "ventilator" "respirator" "checks"

I would wait 2-3 months before you even begin to think it's bottomed.

 

[UncaNed]

Uncle Jack is back in the market. Says everyone is freaking out over nothing and stocks will shoot back up quickly when we get tired of hearing about the flu.

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Jack may be back in the market, but I see a lot of red in that chart. Still, it inspired me to enter some (slightly) low-ball LEAP orders to assuage my fear of missing out. I like uncle Jack.

I do think we are nearing a bottom. Conversations are now about actions "ventilator" "respirator" "checks"

What? No! That's scary! Indicates we think it's gonna get worse, not better, no?

 

[winfield100]

7 disagrees so far. I will report back when the above has happened. It won’t be too long. We went through the same denial stage in the EU. Today 475 people died in Italy due to Corona. Extrapolated, that means 2700 dead americans in the US only due to corona in one day. Every day.

Yes, they kiss and shake hands more. No, they are not partying in Miami. And their gun ownership rate is drastically less. No need for a discussion based on assumptions, time will tell (unfortunately)

@Cohiba
They are partying in “The Villages” in central Florida, western coast near Ocala, north of Tampa, the (seriously) STD capital for retirees in the US.

 

[loco]

I find it interesting to read different tones from EU and US posters. Guess this is because US is at an earlier stage. People locked down at home for a few weeks tend to be more grumpy. Here's a nice semi-log scale graph showing where the US currently is.



Edit: source on request. John Burn-Murdoch (@jburnmurdoch) | Twitter

 

[dl003]

Jack may be back in the market, but I see a lot of red in that chart. Still, it inspired me to enter some (slightly) low-ball LEAP orders to assuage my fear of missing out. I like uncle Jack.

What? No! That's scary! Indicates we think it's gonna get worse, not better, no?

In my opinion market is about sentiment and forward looking. Its a good sign that we begin to have ideas of what we can do and not totally hopeless. Thats what counts. Market already priced in the worsening numbers. Especially for Tesla since we ve been shorted and distorted so much and p&d is coming up. People are beginning to use experimental drugs in the US. We have potentially good news coming in. Market closure has already been ruled out. When people have something to do they worry less. Thats why Trump declared *war* and called it the China virus. I dont know how successful it will be. SPY will definitely go down when we are actually seeing unemployment spiking but thats months down the road. Im not willing to wait to buy TSLA that long

 

[MartinAustin]

The County has the sole authority to rezone land.

There is a reason Toyota didn't sell the land to home developers.

The land is considered toxic for residential use after 40 years of ICEv manufacturing.

It would take a reclamation project and about 20 years before it meets residential standards.

At the time Toyota sold the factory to Tesla the reclamation project was estimated to cost $750M to $1.1B.

And the land was said to be worth $1B if it was rezoned residential.

Toyota didn't want to be affiliated with toxic reclamation project for 20 years, nobody else wanted the property, so they sold it to Tesla for $42M after agreeing to invest $50M in Tesla.

Exactly. Which is also why Tesla has never bit at any of the offers to take up closed-down ICE factories e.g. Lordstown. The grounds are full of really nasty chemicals after decades without regulation. And Elon is actually interested in improving the state of the planet, not making cash per se.

As I stare at the pre-market ticker I can't help wonder if there are signs of life, based on the 1/4 workforce negotiation and the macro from European ECB. However... the longer-term macro is still negative for me, it seems like things are still going to get a lot worse for manufacturing and purchasing Tesla cars in the USA.

 

[UncaNed]

In my opinion market is about sentiment and forward looking. Its a good sign that we begin to have ideas of what we can do and not totally hopeless. Thats what counts. Market already priced in the worsening numbers. Especially for Tesla since we ve been shorted and distorted so much and p&d is coming up. People are beginning to use experimental drugs in the US. We have potentially good news coming in. Market closure has already been ruled out. When people have something to do they worry less. Thats why Trump declared *war* and called it the China virus. I dont know how success it will be. SPY will definitely go down when we are actually seeing unemployment spiking but thats months down the road. Im not willing to wait to buy TSLA that long

I don't disagree, but it was never looking hopeless to me. But as far as your experimental drugs... well, I have friends that did that in the 1960's, and it didn't seem to do them much good...

Shouldn't discussions of when prices will recover include a discussion of oil prices? That's probably a bigger factor than the virus in the recent drops, no?

 

[neezer]

There is no need to see any other clip about what needs to be done, besides this one.

He is 100% right, this is unsustainable if it drags on. Note for the squeamish; he will sound ultra bearish and doomsday-ish, but don't think like this, he's actually on a buying frenzy of equities; but what he says is the ONLY way to do it, and you will see, this weekend or max monday, they'll let the public and media know only AFTER they've finalized the mobilizations and plans .. martial law, full lockdown of the United States. Don't be scared, but the General needs to be in charge now instead of the public services folks and doctors. As he says, just do an extended spring break (started today) with the fam at home, 30 days ultra lockdown, no other way. Sorry Musk, but they're right here, and you're not:

 

[copyhacker]

Meanwhile, the perfect contrarian did this:
View attachment 523364

so, Spiegel bottom?

 

[JBRR]

There is no need to see any other clip about what needs to be done, besides this one.

He is 100% right, this is unsustainable if it drags on. Note for the squeamish; he will sound ultra bearish and doomsday-ish, but don't think like this, he's actually on a buying frenzy of equities; but what he says is the ONLY way to do it, and you will see, this weekend or max monday, they'll let the public and media know only AFTER they've finalized the mobilizations and plans .. martial law, full lockdown of the United States. Don't be scared, but the General needs to be in charge now instead of the public services folks and doctors. As he says, just do an extended spring break (started today) with the fam at home, 30 days ultra lockdown, no other way. Sorry Musk, but they're right here, and you're not:

He's right. If US implemented this I would close all shorts and buy hand over fist.

 

[MartinAustin]

so, Spiegel bottom?

He has to say something like it's going to zero or whatever. Has he said something similar recently that we can laugh at later? I have to admit I have not been observing his communications

OR - are you saying when TSLA hits $180 it will turn around? (the 2016 Spiegel bottom)

 

[AlexS]

Italy's lockdown will be prolonged, prime minister says, as death toll spikes and hospitals struggle

Germany now thinking about a complete quarantine lockdown of entire Bavaria (link). This is getting tough.

The sooner everyone gets a two weeks quarantine the better. Only home, work(who can at home) and grocery store(even better to order online) should be your locations for next two-three weeks. walk in the woods is also ok where no one is around. Then hospitals will be fine and virus contained. But some douche-bags just don't get it.

 

[Prunesquallor]

I find it interesting to read different tones from EU and US posters. Guess this is because US is at an earlier stage. People locked down at home for a few weeks tend to be more grumpy. Here's a nice semi-log scale graph showing where the US currently is.

View attachment 523380

@loco Can you attach source link? Thanks