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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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A physician's perspective and what I'm worried about for TSLA.

We got an email from our health system today that they started large scale testing for Covid-19 just yesterday. They are only testing those individuals that are symptomatic but also who don't test positive for other viruses like flu even though there is a 2% coinfection rate. Typically these tests take a few days to come back. All of this means that the number of cases in the US will drastically increase over the weekend and through next week.

From a TSLA investor standpoint, what I'm most worried about short term is the fact that if they discover many more cases in California, how long before TSLA is forced to temporarily halt manufacturing in Fremont? What is news like that going to do to the stock price? I think this is the biggest possible short term risk.

Sorry folks, this is exactly what I was worried about a week ago. We are still at a large lack of testing kits in our health system which means that the infected numbers will continue to rise. I predict production will be shut off for at least a month. Invest accordingly.
 
So is this the week when Model 3 also gets the new big stamping machine :)

I'm sure Tesla will make as much use of the shutdown as possible to clean up and upgrade production processes where possible. But you have to keep in mind that things like enormous stamping machines and the largest die-casting machines in the US have very long lead-times and are custom orders. It's unlikely that the delivery windows of such things happen to coincide with the shut-down. But they might choose to move forward planned S and X line changes to allow production of Plaid, insofar as that is possible.
 
One week stop for maintainance of robots and machines is nothing special, buy the dip. Shanghai and Nevada are still operational.

Let us all sing the praises of the mighty Giga 3.

"Oh mighty Giga 3.....protect our shareholder value by increasing your production rate even further and faster "
 
"orderly shutdown" makes sense now. They have parts continously arriving, and if the factory is shut with these parts still coming in, there will be an even bigger headache later. By being open until monday, it gives them a chance to stop the supply chain cleanly and stockpile whatever's already en-route. Sensible.
 
3 weeks, ending April 7, so factory will be down for about 2 weeks total, unless they extend the lockdown, which is likely... Lol

Agree unless it's extended or cancelled early (unlikely that will happen). My husband's company went to WFH on 3/9 so this is already our second week going into 2 more. I sure hope there is some lifting but with more testing becoming available I'm concerned there will be more people going into quarantine and more hospital admittances. Plus we also have Americans who have been traveling abroad arriving home now and so expect numbers from them to go up. I'd like to think 4/7 will be a lifting but seriously doubting it.
 
I found this to be an excellent visual on the Pandemic, courtesy of my good friend Tony Gill, Beakns Inc. On this graph, I think we are approaching day seven in North America. One week ago today, people were traveling downtown en mass to work, going to movies or sporting events, my kids were in grade school and University, my Church was open, there was TP, flour and rice on the supermarket shelves. That was one week ago today. One week ago!
Screen Shot 2020-03-19 at 4.28.13 PM.png


We wil get through this. After all, we are all in this together. Stay healthy. Care for your family and your neighbours and the elderly (from a safe distance). Don't hoard. Value every day and be thankful what we have. Do not be wasteful.

I have never seen bluer skies or clearer water. When we get back to the new normal, let's do it right this time. Clean energy and energy storage.
 
Brilliant move by Elon, to retool Freemont to make ventilators. Still saving the planet and those that dwell here and putting his money where his mouth is. Hope this happens soon. 500,000 ventilators for 2020? The 500,000 EVs can come later in 2021. If I or a family member will ever need a ventilator, I want one with the Tesla logo. I am strongly considering reinvesting in Tesla after this move. It's not just about the money. We are all in this together.
Source please?
 
One week stop for maintainance of robots and machines is nothing special, buy the dip. Shanghai and Nevada are still operational.

Edit: it's two weeks, two weeks is bit long.
and disruption with suppliers that will also have to ramp back up. So this will easily impact some portion of Q2. Just have to take it week by week and see how much impact. Plus, the broader economic impact and job losses.

Doesn't change my long term outlook one bit on Tesla.
 

“We have followed and are continuing to follow all legal directions and safety guidelines with respect to the operations of our facilities, and have honored the Federal Government’s direction to continue operating. Despite taking all known health precautions, continued operations in certain locations has caused challenges for our employees, their families and our suppliers.

As such, we have decided to temporarily suspend production at our factory in Fremont”

That looks like Tesla is not shut down by the government, but by their own choice due to logistic issues. In that case, they can also restart when they choose to.
Or do I interpret the above incorrectly?
 
Source please?
jhm,
There are many articles on this possibility. Here is one: https://www.space.com/elon-musk-ventilators-coronavirus-pandemic.html
I am going out on a limb and stating this this is required now, that we could need 500,000 ventilators (easy, if not for US then rest of the World) and that Tesla could do it and should do it. It is a war we are facing, a silent killer. All efforts must go towards fighting this war. IMO Tesla will lead.
 
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Brilliant move by Elon, to retool Freemont to make ventilators. Still saving the planet and those that dwell here and putting his money where his mouth is. Hope this happens soon. 500,000 ventilators for 2020? The 500,000 EVs can come later in 2021. If I or a family member will ever need a ventilator, I want one with the Tesla logo. I am strongly considering reinvesting in Tesla after this move. It's not just about the money. We are all in this together.

Retool Freemont? Not gonna happen. That requires engineering hours and now those people are forced to stay home.

I personally believe that this whole "Elon is gonna make ventilators" thing is going to get overblown by the media so they can bend words and write negative articles afterwards on how Elon didn't kept his promises (I'm thinking of the cave thing)

Maybe Tesla will dedicate a small space in their factory to produce some parts that can be usefull.
If nobody asks and pays Tesla to get ventilators, nothing will happen.

Anyhow, I'm shutting down my internet-usage the following 7 days. Staying @ home because of a lockdown and reading social media in the middle of a FUD-storm on Tesla/Corona/... (could you blame the ****ers? Half of the western world is checking their email, websites, social media every hour out of fear because they have nothing else to do besides staying at home. So their perception on the world can be more easily changed. Like a mass-brainwashing in progress... )

Stay long, stay strong!! bye bye!