Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[j6Lpi429@3j]

Idle thought regarding the ban on direct sales in some US states:

Its almost certain that there will be severe economic impact from the virus on the US. There is also a chance that one or more big existing auto companies goes bankrupt. Is there an argument that after things settle down, but the economic impact is still strong, that tesla can easily win over those states with a simple line of reasoning?

"This is economic activity. We want to sell a car. a customer wants to buy a car, and EVEN IN THIS ECONOMY you are artificially preventing this from taking place, deliberately causing further harm to the US economy. Why is that?"

Another thought is that all this working-from-home and isolation is going to mean many more people ordering food, and other things online that out of habit they used to get from stores. This will make it more and more clear how bizarre it is that they are weirdly preventing from buying a car the same way.

 

[LiveLong&Profit]

Re. moderation
I have followed TMC for ~5 years now - mostly lurking/silent.
I find this forum enlightening and entertaining - two things that are hard to find in combination.

For my part, the unique personalities of frequent posters which shines through their - sometimes OT posts are highly valuable to me - although not always strictly on topic it paints a well rounded picture of what I would call our Most Valued Posters/MVPs.
Why is it valuable?
Well, in this day of rampant manipulation, it adds credibility - what bot-network filled with human bad-will actors would post detailed factoids about Icelandic reforestation or differences between various programming languages? Or post post obscure idiosyncrasies re. linux music-software? Or who would - half jokingly, half seriously, I sometimes fear, engage in discussion about which islands to buy, and how to defend against playful(?) attempts to conquer and/or emigrate there? Having such characters contribute is like having a stream of liquid gold in your backyard

I also adds personality: This gives me a baseline to evaluate advise (or 'not-advice') - or simple: should I do what he/she claims to be doing?
It makes reading enjoyable: I look forward to perusing TMC - not only for the knowledge, but because it feels like home.

I acknowledge that the job of being a moderator is not always easy - or fun.
You do a great job!

We should also consider, that by being Guardians at the gate our moderators keeps this forum from being drowned or watered out by normal, run-of-the mill attention-seeking posters like so many other forums and, perhaps more importantly, by the enemies of Tesla.
(I don't mean people who are critical thinkers, or pessimistic by nature or is calling Tesla out when they make mistakes, but the *real* enemies of Tesla, which seek to destroy and/or delay Tesla because it goes against their core interests re. money, power and control)
((Personally i like the Lord Vetinari way of overbearing, more cajoling than regulating moderation, followed by harsh and swift justice - just like his namesake))

However, moderators should perhaps also consider, as have already been mentioned, that the current health-crisis is a world-wide phenomenon and it may be hard for posters to know what percentage is allowed - is that zero?

As others have opined I also found that specific post by KR very informative - I have read it 3 times so far.
The level of confusion re. the health crisis is enormous - clear and concise information and conjecture is of high value. Yes perhaps it should have been posted in the CV-thread. However, much of that thread, which i follow daily is run by medical expert - or people claiming to be. It is hard for a non-expert to sort through all that and extract gems of wisdom/knowledge.
The KR post was clear, condensed and actionable - several posters have had a sort of 'revelation' - the cartoon moment where the light-bulb is lit.

And the fact that it was posted by KR is also relevant: Due to her many high quality posts she has a high trust/value score for me personally. And that score was earned due to many posts - some of them off-topic - granted. But still painting a holistic picture of an individual to be admired and listened to.
The post is actionable.
If a post like that does not belong in a general investor-thread, what does?

Perhaps a technical solution can be found?
Perhaps a MVP-status can be granted - by registered users and/or moderators.
It is off course important to maintain balance: A MVP-status should not grant immunity from rules and standards or allow MVP's to convert this thread to take over a thread.

BUT - perhaps a MVP-status it should grant more leeway re. moderation?

 

[EV Promoter]

VW plans to sell the mid-range ID3 w/ about 200 EPA mile range for about 30,000 Euros (over $32K) but it's a compliance car which is why they won't be selling it in the US. They will also lose money on everyone they sell. It's size/cost and range means it would never make a profit in the US. I'm not sure it's in Tesla's best interest to start bottom fishing with small cars when they don't need the emissions credits and the batteries could be allotted more profitably on more valuable cars like the $39K Model 3.

ID3 it's definetly not a compliance car and if it would'nt sell a lot in US is because no hatchback of that size are best-sellers in US. And whether they will loose money or not, is only relevant on the long-term project VW is involved with EV.
That's simply an idle chat on the legacy car company that is risking the most to accelerate the EV transition....

Tesla world car project, if the mission is popularizing EVs, is of utmost importance as @Artful Dodger already pointed out.
And if EU market is of any importance, the size and features of the World class Tesla/ID3, are the EU best sellers.

To give you a clue, the 10 best sellers cars of EU are in the two class of VW Golf and Toyota Yaris size, that we call "C" and "B" segment, plus the related SUV version.

Focus2move| Europe best selling cars 2019 - The top 100 ranking

For your knowledge, The Model 3 SR+ in EU starts about 53,000$ - 49500Eur and the AWD LR starts at 62,000$. At those prices they are luxury items for the fews, twice the price and more than the best sellers of the "C" segment and three times theprice of a "B" segment, the 2 best-selling segments. And bear in mind that europeans first buy their house, only then fancy cars, very different mentality about consumistic items.

This is to say that Tesla EV mission in EU, and many other countries, if of any interest, will only start to be accomplished with a car a lot cheaper than the cheapest M3... the World Car ID3 sized, infact....

 

[JohnnyEnglish]

Given the unique production process of the cybertruck, I wonder if there is much of an advantage of having a giant manufacturing facility for it. As far as i can tell, cybertruck doesn't need any of the fixed equipment that has to pump out millions of parts per year to be fully utilised (e.g. no press or casting machines needed). Their foundry might go against this, however if they're just pumping our rolls of steel at the foundry then the output is easy to transport.

Would they be better off building several factories that pump out 50k-100k CTs per year? Arrival is planning on using this method.

Some of the benefits of this method would be that Tesla can use it as a bargaining chip in several Midwest states to introduce more favourable EV laws. The number of sites available to support a smaller factory are substantially greater, giving Tesla morre flexibility. There would be additional redundancy against issues at one factory, capex can be incremental as CT demand is proved up (at the moment, we don't know if real demand will be 100k per year or 2m per year, building a factory to pump out 2m per year would be a bit of a risk).

Hard to know what the better solution is without running the numbers.

I knew that Cybertruck did not require press or paint shop. However does it also do away with the castings?

 

[STARR X]

A week isn't complete without a Jason Yang Giga Shanghai update.

My main observations from this week:

1. A lot of trucks. Nearly every single loading bay on the right side of the factory has a truck parked next to it.
2. A lot of cranes. Feels like they're trying to make up for time lost due to the virus. That is one hell of a busy construction site.
3. An interesting bit coming up in between the main factory and the battery building. I'm not sure what it's going to be, but we can now see some black scaffolding coming up.
4. A lot of used pallets.
5. A lot of MiC M3s waiting to be shipped off to delivery centers. Looks like black is the color of the week.

- like how he started the video from the front left of the building and circles mostly around. Don’t really recall that before.

- And maybe I don’t remember right but it seems like they are making the foundations for the pillars more solid this time around.

 

[FrankSG]

For your knowledge, The Model 3 SR+ in EU starts about 53,000$ - 49500Eur and the AWD LR starts at 62,000$. At those prices they are luxury items for the fews, twice the price and more than the best sellers of the "C" segment and three times theprice of a "B" segment, the 2 best-selling segments. And bear in mind that europeans first buy their house, only then fancy cars, very different mentality about consumistic items.

Your argument still holds for the most part, but don't forget that Tesla will still be at a major disadvantage for the next 1.5-2 years, because it lacks local production in EU. Giga Berlin should cut at least $5,000 off the price of M3 in Europe in saved shipping costs and import taxes, perhaps more due to further advancements in manufacturing.

 

[JohnnyEnglish]

Interestingly the number of people reporting Model Y delivery dates in March in the Teslike Model Y tracker keeps on increasing slowly. There are currently 79 and only one delivery scheduled for after 31 March (which seems to be an error). I am looking forward to the Q1 P&D report to see both the actual figures and how the sample in Teslike relates to the overall figure.

There are now 92 Model Y's in the tracker with delivery dates by 31 March. Still only the 1 for after that date.

 

[Dr. J]

It’s since been removed.
What kind of comments were there? For those of us that missed them

The comments in general took issue with author's logical fallacies and use of quotations that didn't support his thesis. He was trying to paint a rosy picture of the spread of coronavirus that isn't supported by the available evidence.

 

[EV Promoter]

Your argument still holds for the most part, but don't forget that Tesla will still be at a major disadvantage for the next 1.5-2 years, because it lacks local production in EU. Giga Berlin should cut at least $5,000 off the price of M3 in Europe in saved shipping costs and import taxes, perhaps more due to further advancements in manufacturing.

I do really hope Giga Berlin will cut the price of Model 3-Y but, like in US, that probably will just bring them in parity with the ICE D segment, that is MB Class C, 23th in the sale figures i've posted, and BMW 3 series, 36th in the list.

That is to say, unlikely M3-Y size to never get in the Top 10 chart in EU, if the dream of popularization is the target. It will need an ID3 sized car, but with a cheaper price: it's already evident, as predicted by the Cleantechnica article on the Osborne Effect, that is not yet the time of the parity for the C segment and ID3 will not sell in any successful number for the moment, too expensive, even is VW is recently back trying to convince that will cost like a diesel, but the unofficial numbers says a different story, it's just pre-marketing.

Musk is right, according to the evidences, the price parity with ICE is key to EV success, and for the C segment we are not already there. Is possible that Tesla, with the new cheap batteries could be ready for the "C", (another reason to be faithful for a bright future), but perhaps too many other models to take care of for the moment.

https://cleantechnica.com/files/2019/02/EV-Drivetrain-Costs-Osborn-Effect.png

 

[Prunesquallor]

Idle thought regarding the ban on direct sales in some US states:

Its almost certain that there will be severe economic impact from the virus on the US. There is also a chance that one or more big existing auto companies goes bankrupt. Is there an argument that after things settle down, but the economic impact is still strong, that tesla can easily win over those states with a simple line of reasoning?

"This is economic activity. We want to sell a car. a customer wants to buy a car, and EVEN IN THIS ECONOMY you are artificially preventing this from taking place, deliberately causing further harm to the US economy. Why is that?"

Another thought is that all this working-from-home and isolation is going to mean many more people ordering food, and other things online that out of habit they used to get from stores. This will make it more and more clear how bizarre it is that they are weirdly preventing from buying a car the same way.

The traditional dealerships are, in some cases, multi-generational family businesses. They can have large influence in the community and many are large contributors to state politicians. The direct-sales model is an existential threat. However, it’s not clear whether the fear is new EV direct sales (still considered by many dealerships as a minuscule or far-future threat) or unleashing traditional ICE manufacturers to try direct sales.

If it’s the latter, I think compromise is possible in which, legislatively, EVs are fundamentally "different" than ICE cars and trucks and can be afforded different sales and service options (similar to RVs, farm equipment, etc). ICE manufacturers and dealerships can retain their current relationship (by legal enforcement if necessary). This could also aid the OEM EV efforts by allowing them to bypass dealerships hostile to EVs (if any significant OEM EV effort survives the current economy, that is). This would allow the EV and direct-sales transitions to happen hand-in-hand, for those states (like mine) where direct sales/service are currently not allowed.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Would they be better off building several factories that pump out 50k-100k CTs per year?

You should watch Sandy Monro's analysis at the video link here (Deconstructing The Tooling Cost on Tesla’s Cybertruck - Autoline After Hours 492).

• 50K/yr capacity costs $30M in CapEx for a mostly manual plant
• 12 such plants would be req'd for 600K/yr @ $360M total
• such a network of smaller plants would still require a bty factories
  
• this is no longer cost competitive against 600K/yr F150 @ $615M

A larger single plant would have three key advantages for Tesla:

• $125M CapEx for 600K/yr gives lowest cost per unit production capacity
• bty plants need massive automation to drive down cost per unit (need big plant)
  
• fewer larger automated plant leverage the most scarce resource and longest lead time commodity: Engineering talent

Tesla's flat management structure is tuned to this kind of scaling. Elon made this organizational decision long ago. That's why anybody can talk directly to anyone else at Tesla if its the most direct way to get a thing done. And its prolly why legions of 'middle-management' VPs have departed over the years, since this type of flat organizational structure values results, not 'empire building'.

No matter for them. I hear Ford's hiring (janitors).

Cheers!

 

[Ellec]

Tesla have enough cash to ride out this disaster, but they will have much less cash when we come out of this, probably back to 2018 levels. Wondering if they will raise again or pull back on capex?

 

[CorneliusXX]

I knew that Cybertruck did not require press or paint shop. However does it also do away with the castings?

That's an open question. From what I've heard it's all folded/welded steel, but I doubt there's enough info to be certain either way.

 

[CorneliusXX]

- like how he started the video from the front left of the building and circles mostly around. Don’t really recall that before.

- And maybe I don’t remember right but it seems like they are making the foundations for the pillars more solid this time around.

The foundations surprised me too. I agree that they're more solid, and they cover the majority of the floor area. It's even more strange given the assumption is that the press and foundry for the entire factory are in phase 1 of the facility.

My only guesses for the strengthening of foundations are:

• Model y casting machines are going to take up a substantial amount of space and need heavy foundations
• Phase 1 may have had some issues where the foundations were not strong enough to support future plans, for new phases will have additional strength.

 

[jerry33]

The traditional dealerships are, in some cases, multi-generational family businesses. They can have large influence in the community and many are large contributors to state politicians. The direct-sales model is an existential threat. However, it’s not clear whether the fear is new EV direct sales (still considered by many dealerships as a minuscule or far-future threat) or unleashing traditional ICE manufacturers to try direct sales.

Yes, there are a few multi-generational dealers. I believe they are mainly in small towns. As far as I can tell most cars are sold by large organizations with many dealerships for various car brands. Some of them span multiple states (and I suppose some mega-dealers are multi-generational). They don't fear the auto manufacturers in the least because no one manufacturer is vital to their business. What they fear is the lack of service revenue that EVs provide.

 

[Fishy Fish]

You should watch Sandy Monro's analysis at the video link here (Deconstructing The Tooling Cost on Tesla’s Cybertruck - Autoline After Hours 492).

• 50K/yr capacity costs $30M in CapEx for a mostly manual plant
• 12 such plants would be req'd for 600K/yr @ $360M total
• such a network of smaller plants would still require a bty factories
  
• this is no longer cost competitive against 600K/yr F150 @ $615M

A larger single plant would have three key advantages for Tesla:

• $125M CapEx for 600K/yr gives lowest cost per unit production capacity
• bty plants need massive automation to drive down cost per unit (need big plant)
  
• fewer larger automated plant leverage the most scarce resource and longest lead time commodity: Engineering talent

Tesla's flat management structure is tuned to this kind of scaling. Elon made this organizational decision long ago. That's why anybody can talk directly to anyone else at Tesla if its the most direct way to get a thing done. And its prolly why legions of 'middle-management VPs have departed over the years, since this type of flat organizational structure values results, not 'empire building'.

No matter for them. I hear Ford's hiring (janitors).

Cheers!

I wonder if this potential recession/collapse in the markets will present another factory deal opportunity for Tesla like the Numi one. There could be some big closures and opportunities to get a great price. I believe that converting Fremont/Numi had quite a few headaches, but an existing building might be faster and cheaper.

 

[Pras]

I wonder if this potential recession/collapse in the markets will present another factory deal opportunity for Tesla like the Numi one. There could be some big closures and opportunities to get a great price. I believe that converting Fremont/Numi had quite a few headaches, but an existing building might be faster and cheaper.

Tesla is better off designing a new factory for the long term efficiency. I would rather have them raise cash than trying saving pennies in old factories.

BTW: we want @KarenRei back!! Give her an MVP status that gives her more freedom.

 

[Dr. J]

Idle thought regarding the ban on direct sales in some US states:

Its almost certain that there will be severe economic impact from the virus on the US. There is also a chance that one or more big existing auto companies goes bankrupt. Is there an argument that after things settle down, but the economic impact is still strong, that tesla can easily win over those states with a simple line of reasoning?

"This is economic activity. We want to sell a car. a customer wants to buy a car, and EVEN IN THIS ECONOMY you are artificially preventing this from taking place, deliberately causing further harm to the US economy. Why is that?"

Another thought is that all this working-from-home and isolation is going to mean many more people ordering food, and other things online that out of habit they used to get from stores. This will make it more and more clear how bizarre it is that they are weirdly preventing from buying a car the same way.

I think you're underestimating the power of the dealer lobby in certain states. They will be fighting for survival.

 

[abouttime]

@Fact Checking / @KarenRei could you perhaps name a community tool/forum/discord of your choice to follow your posts? DM is fine too.

The mods have every right to do as they please.

Many of us invested all their life savings into TSLA. This matters too much. We need your posts.

 

[waterloo42]

I also find this development very discouraging - Karen’s one of (if not THE) most insightful and knowledgeable people in this forum. I know there’s two sides to every story, but I’ve never been bothered by any occasionally OT posts she made, and the quality and quantity of her OnT posts more than made up for an occasional diversion.

Very disappointing that this is happening.

I agree; I have not found a single post of @KarenRei that I found bothersome; almost always she provides insight and a depth of thinking rare here or on any other forums I'm in.