Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[JohnnyEnglish]

There are now 112 Model Y's in the Teslike tracker with delivery dates by 31 March. Still only 1 for after that date.

This is the last time I am going to provide an update as we are now only a week from the end of Q1. The Teslike tracker now has 132 Model Y's with delivery dates. Only 3 of these are in Q2 and they are significantly into Q2 so they look like customer requests for delivery to be later. There may be some further deliveries scheduled in the next few days but I am going to be conservative and ignore those.

If I remember correctly the deliveries in the Model 3 delivery tracker were initially around 6% of the total deliveries (@Troy may be able to confirm). If that is the case then assuming the same % sample here would indicate that around 2200 Y's will be delivered in Q1.

As I don't think Tesla were stockpiling in advance of market release that would also imply a MY production rate of around 1000/week.

Does this seem flawed?

Do we know if there were deliveries to Tesla and SpaceX staff prior to public deliveries starting March 13th?

 

[Glamisduner]

Totally. I think people feel like they have to do something in times like this, when the best option really is to do nothing.

That's what I am thinking to do, but I have some money ready for the next big drop. Honestly I feel the spike is short lived and another huge drop is looming, could be after the 15 days when the virus kicks back up, should everyone but new york go back to work. No one really knows right now.... But having some cash to buy more in the 300 price range can't hurt

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

seeking alfafa claims (not gonna link to them out of principal) that an internal e-mail to employees announced that two of them have the virus, but had been working from home the past 2 weeks. I'm still looking for corroborating evidence.

edit: electrek has the same report: https://electrek.co/2020/03/26/tesla-confirms-two-employees-tested-positive-covid-19/

the timing coincides with when TSLA turned down.

 

[LJS22]

Tesla has two employees sick (they have been working from home for two weeks) and we are down 3%. Meanwhile an Uber driver dies from covid after they pick up a sick passenger and they are up 5%?

Lame

 

[Hock1]

On a normal-ish day this explanation would suffice for me. Not today. Waiting to hear what @Artful Dodger thinks...

If options-related, there must be some really dangerous exposure for someone tomorrow.

How about the simple fact that the SP has gone up 50% in the last 6 trading days?

 

[LJS22]

Just noticed Ford and Tesla’s stock just fell sharply at the same time. Auto news?

 

[vikings123]

Sorry I think you guys are over analyzing the SP movement today. The market on the whole is going to be choppy for the next couple of months. Yeah S&P is up 5% but it could easily finish in the red today, just be careful out there with options and such. Or TSLA could finish in the green today.

I'm just sitting on the sidelines for now waiting to buy in the 450 range(if that happens).

 

[Green Pete]

Tesla has two employees sick (they have been working from home for two weeks) and we are down 3%. Meanwhile an Uber driver dies from covid after they pick up a sick passenger and they are up 5%?

Lame

TSLA is up 100% since march 18. Im ok with a few days like this.

 

[jerry33]

Tesla has two employees sick (they have been working from home for two weeks) and we are down 3%. Meanwhile an Uber driver dies from covid after they pick up a sick passenger and they are up 5%?

Lame

The first two are still being paid (an expense).

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

TSLA is up 100% since march 18. Im ok with a few days like this.

Might want to redo that math

 

[Tim S]

seeking alfafa claims (not gonna link to them out of principal) that an internal e-mail to employees announced that two of them have the virus, but had been working from home the past 2 weeks. I'm still looking for corroborating evidence.

edit: electrek has the same report: Tesla confirms two employees tested positive for COVID-19 - Electrek

the timing coincides with when TSLA turned down.

Yes, 2 out of 56,000 employees. This was posted at Electrek at 10:28 AM ET...

"Tesla’s HR department wrote:

“Since yesterday, two Tesla employees who had been working from home for almost two weeks tested positive for COVID-19. The employees were not symptomatic in the office, and both are quarantined at home recovering well. Their direct coworkers, who were already working from home for nearly two weeks as well, were immediately notified so they can quarantine and watch for symptoms. CDC guidelines for disinfection and sanitation have been followed. In both cases, interactions with the individuals had a low likelihood of transmission based on the minimal staff onsite and social distancing measures we took earlier this month.”

In the email, the automaker doesn’t confirm where those two employees are based."

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I really think this is the market selling off tesla due to risk/new short positions being initiated in anticipation for the P/D numbers which come out at the end of next week.

 

[Green Pete]

Might want to redo that math

ya whoops that was bad. Still, its up quite a bit. Im not going to complain. I think april is going to be one of the best months Tesla has ever had between P/D boost from china fast ramp, battery and drivetrain and another successful quarter despite covid.

Maybe im dreaming tho

 

[Unpilot]

Gunna buy more if it hit's 500.

I believe there is a huge DEMAND problem @Krugerrand

 

[LJS22]

ya whoops that was bad. Still, its up quite a bit. Im not going to complain. I think april is going to be one of the best months Tesla has ever had between P/D boost from china fast ramp, battery and drivetrain and another successful quarter despite covid.

Maybe im dreaming tho

I’m less certain of a good April than you are. But this remains a speed bump in a 5-10 year forecast. I think Musk once talked about expectations over a year and how you get to the end of the year and it doesn’t seem like much, but you look back to that point after 5 years and it seems incredible what has been accomplished.

I mean 5 years ago Tesla was producing 50,000 cars, now we are looking at a 500,000 year. Software has improved, cars are getting better. Month to month is fun to watch, but we all know the prize is a cumulative effort in the future.

 

[LJS22]

Gunna buy more if it hit's 500.

I believe there is a huge DEMAND problem @Krugerrand

I’d be looking at 505. I think there’s some support there for a bounce.

 

[BenPrice]

Tsla is above where it’s destined and market manipulation is currently at an all time high.

The heavy call side will push SP down until Friday for absolutely no reason and no news article. It’s pure manipulation.

 

[DaveT]

Our own @DaveT has a new video out titled: "Tesla’s Shanghai Gigafactory Will Make Billions (Ep. 54)" (9:16).

In it, Dave discusses 5 key points for Tesla going forward:

1. How Tesla Shanghai was impacted by the Coronavirus
2. The Role of Government
3. Production Targets
4. Risks and Headwinds
5. What this means for Tesla

Dave also offers his projection for Tesla's 2020 vehicle production:

Spoiler: Tesla 2020 Vehicle Production Estimates

Cheater! Watch from 8:40

CH33RS!

Just a note on this video, I made a mistake when calculating total delivery estimates for 2020:
Q1 - 90k
Q2 - 70k
Q3 - 130k
Q4 - 150k
Should have said "around 440k" but said "around 500k".

Am I too pessimistic or optimistic? What's your take?

 

[powertoold]

Am I too pessimistic or optimistic? What's your take?

Your Q2 is quite pessimistic, but none of us know for sure. I don't think Tesla is in any trouble selling or producing cars.

 

[Intl Professor]

First, lead them to water ...

Even horses cannot drink with their ass unless its another four-footed animal.