Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Skryll]

Well, I don’t know if I would trust this article to be correct. This quote is very suspicious to me:

VW CEO Diess will definitely have a few cars to show this summer, “but we’ll tinker them by hand so that something is there.” This has nothing to do with series production."

If they can deliver a few “shippable“ cars with software “tinkered by hand”, and the hardware is all the same, they all should be shippable.

Hardcoded VIN# ?

 

[Buckminster]

April fools day in 4 days. What will Elon's prank be?

SEC won't like him announcing a deal with VW to leverage their new software capabilities.

I suppose he could get away with saying that he doesn't think Ford will go bust soon.

How about the Boring Co are working on a tunnel to connect the WH with a local tanning salon?

 

[Buckminster]

April fools day in 4 days. What will Elon's prank be?

SEC won't like him announcing a deal with VW to leverage their new software capabilities.

I suppose he could get away with saying that he doesn't think Ford will go bust soon.

How about the Boring Co are working on a tunnel to connect the WH with a local tanning salon?

New Tesla vehicles won't come with cupholders following some recent unfortunate accidents.

 

[StealthP3D]

Nearly 1.25 million people are killed in car accidents each year. That means, on average, auto accidents cause 3,287 deaths per day. An additional 20-50 million people are injured or disabled every year. (Source: 50+ Car Accident Statistics in the U.S. & Worldwide).
Over 90% of these deaths, injuries and disabilities are caused by human error.

It's beyond me why nobody makes a bigger deal about all this human error causing massive pain and suffering on highways everywhere.

 

[Robertj]

Perhaps you need to look outside your bubble

In Italy and Spain , and NY , health care workers are dying when trying to assist Covid 19
patients

Doctors , due to scarce resources are having to decide who lives or dies , as there is insufficient
ventilators , etc, etc

Listin to the NY mayor’s daily briefing

Hope you keep safe and your family do not get Covid 19 , as theUS is not ready, and it looks like a train smash
coming,

 

[neostars]

Nearly 1.25 million people are killed in car accidents each year. That means, on average, auto accidents cause 3,287 deaths per day. An additional 20-50 million people are injured or disabled every year. (Source: 50+ Car Accident Statistics in the U.S. & Worldwide).
Over 90% of these deaths, injuries and disabilities are caused by human error.

It's beyond me why nobody makes a bigger deal about all this human error causing massive pain and suffering on highways everywhere.

You totally failed to picture what the death rate be like if we did nothing.

 

[heltok]

Nearly 1.25 million people are killed in car accidents each year. That means, on average, auto accidents cause 3,287 deaths per day. An additional 20-50 million people are injured or disabled every year. (Source: 50+ Car Accident Statistics in the U.S. & Worldwide).
Over 90% of these deaths, injuries and disabilities are caused by human error.

It's beyond me why nobody makes a bigger deal about all this human error causing massive pain and suffering on highways everywhere.

The main worry is not what has happened already, the main worry is what is about to happen and what would have happened if we did nothing. So far the spread is to less than 1/1000 of the world population, and mostly the richer part of the world with good healthcare not exceeding capacity. For the poorer parts of the world and with overwhelmed hospitals it could be even worse.

If this growth continunes at ~1.5 magnitudes per month it will soon overtake traffic accidents. Also a lot of recovered patients will have extensive lung damage with lower lung function and higher risk of dying in future infections.

 

[CaliBear1]

I communicated directly with Karen. She says she’s not coming back and I have no reason to doubt her. Very unfortunate.

I wish there were some way for them to know how deeply they are missed. Huge loss, and not our fault... Knowledge, and excellence based sources like those 2 are few and far between in our times. Seriously bummed every time I think about it.

@KarenRei @Fact Checking

 

[Robertj]

I communicated directly with Karen. She says she’s not coming back and I have no reason to doubt her. Very unfortunate.

I find this a real disaster for this site
This most valuable contributors to this site not treated with respect , I am a member for 7 years and will probably pack my bags.

Thankyou for all your help in the past

And I have canceled my supporting subscription

 

[BLSmith2112]

I find this a real disaster for this site
This most valuable contributors to this site not treated with respect , I am a member for 7 years and will probably pack my bags.

Thankyou for all your help in the past

And I have canceled my supporting subscription

I’ve been a lurker and avid reader for 4 years, but without them and the great quality posts they provided I only check this forum for Papafox’s daily reports now. Way less substantive discussion happening here these days imo.

 

[hobbes]

I’ve been a lurker and avid reader for 4 years, but without them and the great quality posts they provided I only check this forum for Papafox’s daily reports now. Way less substantive discussion happening here these days imo.

There have always been ups and downs over the years. While I will miss Karen´s and FactCheckings contributions, this is not the end of the forum. When I started here, they were not here yet and nonetheless we had great discussions. There will be new people joining and once in a while someone outstanding will be among them. Let´s all give our best and it will remain a place worthwhile visiting everyday.

 

[Artful Dodger]

If we don't flatten this curve, our goose is cooked:

#Cybertruck #TexasCTea

 

[Cobos]

Well, I don’t know if I would trust this article to be correct. This quote is very suspicious to me:

VW CEO Diess will definitely have a few cars to show this summer, “but we’ll tinker them by hand so that something is there.” This has nothing to do with series production."

If they can deliver a few “shippable“ cars with software “tinkered by hand”, and the hardware is all the same, they all should be shippable.

I don’t know any of this, just guessing. VW has said the issue is the subsystems are not communicating properly with each other. Say f. inst. that the ABS system is a stand alone system delivered by a stable and solid supplier and they work. Though it’s 4 small processors with attached hardware, one for each wheel obviously. This 4 processors are connected to the main CPU. Whenever they detect wheel slippage they report back to CPU and start anti locking. The problem is that a few milliseconds earlier the anti spin system reported bad road conditions and the car/CPU is in “ice mode”. So the CPU wants to change the ABS timings to better work with the anti spin system.
The issue is whenever the CPU asks the ABS system for changes it just gets error messages. The ABS works well as a stand-alone system but the API is faulty or badly documented or otherwise hard to work with. So VW says drop “ice mode” we’ll just leave the systems as independent islands. That worked on the 2019 models, though the car will be worse on slippery conditions. Or the have ice mode just without any changes to the ABS system. That way they can “tinker manually” and have a working car but with much less fine grained control. No real ice mode or track mode etc.
This then is in contrast to Tesla that did OTA updates of the ABS system after the Consumer Report brake issue, and keeps on refining their own ice mode which gives excellent traction and control with bad road conditions. Not to mention can sell improved track mode as a software upgrade.

 

[RobStark]

 

[22522]

I communicated directly with Karen. She says she’s not coming back and I have no reason to doubt her. Very unfortunate.

I think I had the other half of the conversation on ignore (Just counted 42 voices on that list... FactChecking was on that list for being long winded, BTW).

So from my perspective, contributors disappear for no reason.

If Karen has a twitter handle or some other sort of follow mechanism, I benefited from the technical understanding and content (and humor) she brought, please send a path to her voice.

I would like to hear it again.

 

[PaulusdB]

I find this a real disaster for this site
This most valuable contributors to this site not treated with respect , I am a member for 7 years and will probably pack my bags.

Thankyou for all your help in the past

And I have canceled my supporting subscription

I concur.
Similar events in the Belgian and Dutch part of TMC have likewise caused me to not continue my subscription.
(In Dutch: another one bites the dust.)

 

[jerry33]

I'm surprised VW made such a hash of this and I don't know if partnering other car makers would help;.

What I would do in their position is outsource the job to around 3 small software houses and get them to compete building a core software platform. The VW internal team then evaluates an and picks the best one and works on integrating car components as needed.
The platform is enhanced and the others are put on ice, but can be reactivated.

I say this because my experience in software is, a small team that knows what they are doing always beats a big team that doesn't.

In this case they can work with Daimler in picking and paying the 3 teams, Daimler may even select a different product to take to the next step.. But the deal should be structured such that VW can switch to the product Daimler selected if they pay 50% of the additional phase 2 development costs.

Overall I don't understand what is so hard about this task.. but I do know getting the core design right is probably essential.

1. It's easy to understand because large companies have difficulty with innovation.
2. Outsourcing is one of the main causes of their current dilemma. More outsourcing would only hurt.
3. 200+ suppliers with different protocols that have to be made to work with each other is a nightmare.
Basically, this is pretty much a guaranteed-to-fail project, and is typically what happens when you try to reduce costs by trying to use as much legacy technology as possible. Starting with a clean slate would have worked, at a price, but I doubt the executives at VW would have the stomach for the shareholder revolt that would have occurred.

 

[jerry33]

So, I've mitigated some damage by selling a put to pick up things at $445 effectively a week ago, then a $535 call this week which worked out well. However...playing next week has me deer in the headlights.

What's the latest guess at delivery numbers? Seems odds are TSLA will be flat to down next week, but I'd hate to sell another call and miss out on a $100 rise due to a surprise beat.

FWIW, I'm not selling. I ordered an X, and X was delivered (though it's out for PPF and tint), so there's no change in deliveries.

 

[ggies07]

The “war time president” thing - apparently it was the only way White House advisors could get Trump to take the virus situation properly, by telling him that he is now effectively a war time leader like Churchill (he likes pretending he is tough, so this appealed to the draft dodging president). There was no technical “war time president” designation - it’s just political spin from the White House.

 

[Etna]

If Karen has a twitter handle or some other sort of follow mechanism, I benefited from the technical understanding and content (and humor) she brought, please send a path to her voice.

I would like to hear it again.

Nafnlaus (@enn_nafnlaus) | Twitter