Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StealthP3D]

I'm so board right now I'm actually playing with short term calls. Well, we'll see how it goes I suppose.

That's not boredom, that's nervousness/fear/desire to control the uncontrollable.

In general, it's not desirable.

 

[SOULPEDL]

It's a log graph, which is totally appropriate.

Speaking of log graphs, how about this one from Elon on Mar 30th? I'm banking on it during the Q1 conference call later in the month. I think it's the unfolding story of the Model Y and Energy both. And a little more FSD in there always helps

I don't know about many of you, but I'm excited for Tesla's future. It's like one of my few bright spots during these times. Shorts can't shake me or the mission. And when the factories fire back up gradually, it will be a feeding frenzy from starved customers still waiting for their Tesla moment in life. Remember that feeling? I sure do, and it hasn't let up since.

Elon Musk on Twitter

 

[Mkorpal]

That's not boredom, that's nervousness/fear/desire to control the uncontrollable.

In general, it's not desirable.

I can assure you it really is just boredom.

 

[1101011]

Jim Chanos is a day late.

Thought it was April 1st.

 

[dc_h]

You realize these guys were short at $250 as well, right? If Chanos is truly deep in a short position right now he's insane.

Somebody mentioned Mark S was a front runner for a bigger short. It really was the only thing that makes sense, that he can lose 10-20 or 50% of his assets and stay solvent. It is possible Chanos has a whale investing in TSLAQ through him as well. He may also have some hedges that reduce his losses. If he was naked short since last year, he could have lost billions on a 100 or 200 million short position.
If the market is reacting to him or putting any faith in his BS, it really speaks to the number of people you can fool any time.

 

[EV forever]

A few below average volume days in a row plus coordinated share price attacks tied to a scheduled Chanos appearance on CNBC. I'm actually surprised TSLA has show this much resilience. In years past, the market would gasp in horror and sell.

Remember, these 5% share drops on very low volume are mostly orchestrated and will snap back the moment a positive deliveries report is out. In other words, just because we dropped $50 in the last 2-3 days doesn't mean the $50-80 we were going to gain on a major deliveries beat is lowered by $50. My feeling is we'll rise from the $510 mark, not where we are now.

I agree with you - was going to post that this has the classic signs of a coordinated attack that we have seen before. Send a couple of babble heads to CNBC to bash Tesla, get a few nasty articles posted to rehash the FUD and immediately follow with rapid selling to trigger drop in SP. As @Papafox pointed out yesterday, the attack was planned to maintain a 9% drop, no more to avoid the uptick rule going into effect. I would wager today will be the same - as much as a 9% drop. That would be about $436 today - so I am planning to place a small order for that price or maybe $440 to get some trading shares. Not touching my core position which will be HODL till 2030

 

[Eugene Ash]

My accountant said solar and EV tax credits cannot be rolled forward. But we have at least one member here that says solar credits can be rolled forward. Is your experience with EV or solar credits? Or both?

Both in the same year. Back then went on a shopping spree, got geothermal, solar & ev in same year and exceeded taxes paid that year (2012).

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I don't really agree that this drop is insignificant. We need around a 15% move just to get close to 550 and that number keeps getting bigger. While a positive P/D report would probably take us back to 500's, I don't see it putting us solidly above 600 anymore........which is exactly what this manipulation had intended. Not really much of a risk of shorting when you can easily get the share price down 15% to create a buffer to protect your short position.

Edit: Now we need a 20% move.

We get these 12-17% moves and CNBC throws up their hands asking why. It's because short covering amplifies and uptick. And whenever anyone wants or needs to buy at suppressed levels like these.....there's no one there to sell.

What would rationally be a 7% jump becomes a 16% jump. When we shot to $900's it looked far crazier than if we'd jumped there from $600(which is where we should have been to start the run).

Shorts distort.

 

[phantasms]

Both in the same year. Back then went on a shopping spree, got geothermal, solar & ev in same year and exceeded taxes paid that year (2012).

Maybe it's changed since then. As other posters have mentioned above the EV credit doesn't roll over but the solar does. I usually don't go out of my way to correct incorrect information online but I only am in this instance as I want to as many people to get Tesla solar as possible. It's awesome.

The Solar Tax Credit Explained | EnergySage

 

[Mike Smith]

Sandy Munro is very impressed!

6:20 - "What I think is turning out to be a really fabulous vehicle."

 

[printf42]

Sandy Munro is very impressed!

A few points I got:

• He likes the way Tesla puts tubes on all wirings, but pretty much we can confirm Model Y has same wiring as Model 3, the long expected robo wiring didn't make it into Model Y(which is probably a good thing so they can reuse 75% parts.)
• Smallish improvements here and there.
• Big kudos to the huge casting which made up much of the rear end, also mentioned it helps to easily getting perfect assembly alinements every single time.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

We get these 12-17% moves and CNBC throws up their hands asking why. It's because short covering amplifies and uptick. And whenever anyone wants or needs to buy at suppressed levels like these.....there's no one there to sell.

What would rationally be a 7% jump becomes a 16% jump. When we shot to $900's it looked far crazier than if we'd jumped there from $600(which is where we should have been to start the run).

Shorts distort.

I don't necessarily disagree with your point about how short manipulation suppresses the price and provides a coiled spring effect. But I'm in the camp that thinks the macro's are going to retest lows and therefore we will not have the benefit of macro support to help spring that coil anytime soon.

I thought when we held the 500 level multiple times that there would be strong enough support to climb to 600 and stay there with a decent P/D report. Now I don't think a good P/D report will get things there. In fact I would puts odds that a good, even great P/D could be reported tomorrow but the macro's are down anywhere from 2-4% and thus Tesla's rally will be capped at under 500/share. I think we stay in the 400 level for an extended period now, likely months because if anything, shorts and wall st funds that want to make money off of manipulation see that the stock can be broken.

I essentially think we're in Q1 2019 and the year of 2019 all over again when it comes to how Tesla is going to be traded for the next 2-4 months.......just at double the share price. I'm not really complaining. The company will come out of the incoming recession with more market share than it had before and the company is as strong as ever when it comes to the upcoming products. But the wall st manipulation machine is going to go full force again just like it was during Q1/Q2/Q3 of 2019 and most, if not all rally's in the share price are going to be capped and walked back down again and again. These are just my thoughts. It's not doom and gloom but I'm not going to ignore that the strength in the stock is broken at this point . We would need something like 90k deliveries and re-iterate of 500k guidance to bring strength back into the stock. I don't think we get a massive rally over the next couple of months back to the 700-800 level like I was anticipating before and that the 400 level is essentially the new 200 level from Q1 2019.

 

[Zero CO2]

I don't necessarily disagree with your point about how short manipulation suppresses the price and provides a coiled spring effect. But I'm in the camp that thinks the macro's are going to retest lows and therefore we will not have the benefit of macro support to help spring that coil anytime soon.

I thought when we held the 500 level multiple times that there would be strong enough support to climb to 600 and stay there with a decent P/D report. Now I don't think a good P/D report will get things there. In fact I would puts odds that a good, even great P/D could be reported tomorrow but the macro's are down anywhere from 2-4% and thus Tesla's rally will be capped at under 500/share. I think we stay in the 400 level for an extended period now, likely months because if anything, shorts and wall st funds that want to make money off of manipulation see that the stock can be broken.

I essentially think we're in Q1 2019 and the year of 2019 all over again when it comes to how Tesla is going to be traded for the next 2-4 months.......just at double the share price. I'm not really complaining. The company will come out of the incoming recession with more market share than it had before and the company is as strong as ever when it comes to the upcoming products. But the wall st manipulation machine is going to go full force again just like it was during Q1/Q2/Q3 of 2019 and most, if not all rally's in the share price are going to be capped and walked back down again and again. These are just my thoughts. It's not doom and gloom but I'm not going to ignore that the strength in the stock is broken at this point . We would need something like 90k deliveries and re-iterate of 500k guidance to bring strength back into the stock. I don't think we get a massive rally over the next couple of months back to the 700-800 level like I was anticipating before and that the 400 level is essentially the new 200 level from Q1 2019.

if you are correct ....then if you can accumulate ...as many did after Q1 last year ...might make sense ... I did not think we would see discounts like this again

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Well I grabbed a couple last minute $500 calls for tomorrow, we shall see. I think there's enough confidence and floating money out there that a good/great report shoot us to nearly $600 tomorrow. Obviously it'll then be whittled back down to $550 over the next two weeks.

People are still waiting for an entry point, can see this pandemic isn't gonna kill 2M or even 1/4M Americans, and know there are major positive triggers around the corner. If I were out, a good delivery report might get me in.

We tend to get way too negative and emotional here when on any extended slow burn downward. Fingers crossed.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

if you are correct then if you can accumulate as many did after Q1 last year ...

Yes I will be expanding my position if my scenario plays out so I'm not complaining.

.........Eventually though my position is going to get to a point where I really shouldn't be adding more

 

[dl003]

Let the F5 ritual commence.
https://ir.tesla.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tesla-q1-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries

 

[LJS22]

Let the F5 ritual commence.
https://ir.tesla.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tesla-q1-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries

I’ll just refresh after hours. They know 1 minute before it’s officially out

 

[ABC2D]

based an AH spike, numbers are good

 

[Tim S]

SP up 20 after hours so far

 

[thait84]

Tesla Q1 2020 Vehicle Production & Deliveries