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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
It isn't overdue, it happened within seconds of some of the moderators seeing her post. It is also why I resigned and RSF stepped back.
Edit: to be clear, I resigned due to workload in real life and in protest, not because it was my mistake.
willow_hiller
Well-Known Member
Looks like the Cybertruck's biggest competitor just got set back a year:
Rivian R1T and R1S production delayed until 2021 over COVID-19 interruptions | TESLARATI
Rivian R1T and R1S production delayed until 2021 over COVID-19 interruptions | TESLARATI
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
I haven't commented on this issue until now. Karen liked to go off topic, it was part of her charm. I made a concerted effort in 2019 to see off-topic (or tangentially related) comments go into the "General" thread, to preserve this one for Market related comments. This effort was unsuccesful, and in 2020 a decision was made to drop the "General" thread altogether. IMHO, with predictable results.
Some of the problem is structural:
- People can't see replies to a comment until they wade through all other comments in order of posting until they get to that reply. NO ONE DOES THIS (not even the MODS). A 'threaded' newsreader solves this, but TMC forum software isn't set up that way (I'd like to know if it could be done)
- Moderator "inline" comments do not appear when a member logs in. IMHO, there should either be:
- a sticky thread with all MOD comments, or have MODs send a "Group Message" to a everyone who has subscribed to a particular thread
- give a POPUP msg notification like the "Alert" notification you get when somebody 'Likes' your comment, but for those MOD messages.
- a sticky thread with all MOD comments, or have MODs send a "Group Message" to a everyone who has subscribed to a particular thread
- make it mandatory to read/acknowledge the "MOD Alert" before you can post again
- that will make it unnecessary for any particularly 'peeved' MOD to lock down this thread during the middle of a trading day to make a simple point (which should always be handled routinely)
- The 'Search' feature is barely usable and needs to be improved so people don't have to ask the same question repeatedly
- Their should be a "MODERATOR" account, so ordinary / new Users can see plainly who is posting a comment as a MOD. As it is now, it's not even possible to use 'Search' to say, Find all MOD comments posted Today, or "Since my last Login"
- Folks, this is a clumsys setup, and its structural, unrelated to the quality of the members who contribute to this fine Forum.
I know some of you won't want to entertain this idea, but other long time / senior members or MODS here have sold during this crisis, only to buy back. Swing trading is alllowed, y'all.
In the mean time, let's all try to focus on adding value to this forum with each comment we make, and just one more thing: EFF da SHORTZES.
CH33RS!
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We are--by trying to get some of the most informative posters to come back and add their content again
Mo City
Active Member
Biggest competitor? Yeah right. How many years will it take Rivian to produce these in enough volume to affect the market one iota?
My wild guess: Never.
As Elon said many times: Scaling up is REALLY hard.
The Cybertruck's biggest competitors will remain ICE pickups for quite some time.
dc_h
Active Member
If volume is down, or growth less then planned, spare battery capacity may be available to increase range more this year. Seems like China will be making over 3000 a week by end of this quarter and Karen is probably right about exporting in APAC region from Shanghai. Fremont can adjust production to meet 3Y demand for USA and Europe and Shanghai can take Asia Pacific region. If Fremont only built 300,000 cars this year, Tesla could still double volume.
I know some of you won't want to entertain this idea, but other long time / senior members or MODS here have sold during this crisis, only to buy back. Swing trading is alllowed, y'all.
Maybe this explains some of the bad days versus some mysterious Dr. Evil character manipulating TSLA's share price with a pinkie finger slowly tracing the corner of his mouth.
I actually have been averaging almost exactly the rated range on both my Model S 70D and my Model 3 LR. About 292 wh/mile for the S, and 242 wh/mile for the 3. But, I don't drive 15 mph over the limit like everyone else.
Leaked email: Tesla to furlough workers, cut pay amid coronavirus shutdowns
Looks like they are targeting May 4th as the restart date.
Looks like they are targeting May 4th as the restart date.
https://electrek.co/2020/04/07/tesla-pay-cuts-production-may-4/
This article has a copy of the email that was sent to employees. Can’t wait for FUD articles tomorrow morning lol.
This article has a copy of the email that was sent to employees. Can’t wait for FUD articles tomorrow morning lol.
2virgule5
Member
So a full 6 weeks of shutdown, with gradual restart of a few weeks at best... does someone a has model to estimate impact on production for 2020? Looks in the ballpark of -80k...
Pras
Member
Interesting to see how market reacts to this (most likely negatively, even though technically this is not a surprise, some hope may have been there for an earlier start). For now, at least there is some certainty.
I would say buy the dip unless macros completely nosedive. US factory was already expected to be offline in near future with China factory taking majority of production workload. This just decreases costs in the meantime. I don’t see any permanent losses unless the furloughed workers find jobs elsewhere or are unwilling to come back May 4, and those are not too probable at the moment.
Reading between the lines, they are extending these cost cuts thru 2Q even though covid shutdown will end before then. That plus the reference to long term plan, I assume Elon is trying to hit a profit target still for 2Q with S&P inclusion in mind...
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I see this as good news. We have a likely date to restart by. However, no doubt the negative articles will come on strong tomorrow and the next. I'm guessing Thursday late afternoon will present a solid buying opportunity. I'll probably dive in deep as it could potentially be the last time it's near these prices. Never advice!
It would be amusing if Q2 ends up a record quarter in spite of COVID.
Posting full email here. No need to click off thread.
"
Hi Everyone,
Thank you for your continued commitment to Tesla and our mission during this unprecedented time. We know that the uncertainty has not been easy, and we are doing everything we can to keep you safe and informed while also navigating the changes around the world.
While we are continuing to keep only minimum critical operations running, we expect to resume normal production at our U.S. facilities on May 4, barring any significant changes. Until that time, it is important we take action to ensure we remain on track to achieve our long-term plans. Starting Monday, April 13, we are implementing the below actions as part of a broader effort to manage costs. This is a shared sacrifice across the company that will allow us to progress during these challenging times.
We continue to monitor the situation closely, and our top priority is to ensure the safety of our employees. As usual, for those who are onsite, if you are sick or are uncomfortable coming to work, please contact your manager and stay at home. We respect your decision and you will not be penalized. For HR-related questions, contact your HR partner or email [redacted].
Thank you all so very much for everything you do to ensure the success of our company.
Valerie
Valerie Capers Workman | North America HR + AU/NZ/JP/KR Registered In House Counse"
It would be amusing if Q2 ends up a record quarter in spite of COVID.
Posting full email here. No need to click off thread.
"
Hi Everyone,
Thank you for your continued commitment to Tesla and our mission during this unprecedented time. We know that the uncertainty has not been easy, and we are doing everything we can to keep you safe and informed while also navigating the changes around the world.
While we are continuing to keep only minimum critical operations running, we expect to resume normal production at our U.S. facilities on May 4, barring any significant changes. Until that time, it is important we take action to ensure we remain on track to achieve our long-term plans. Starting Monday, April 13, we are implementing the below actions as part of a broader effort to manage costs. This is a shared sacrifice across the company that will allow us to progress during these challenging times.
- Pay will be temporarily reduced for salaried employees.
- For U.S. employees, these reductions are 30% for Vice Presidents and above, 20% for Directors and above, and 10% for everyone else.
- For non-U.S. employees, there will also be comparable reductions, of which the specifics will be communicated by the local leadership team in accordance with local laws and works-councils.
- These reductions are expected to be in place until the end of Q2
- Employees who cannot work at home and have not been assigned to critical work onsite will be furloughed.
- Under furlough, you remain an employee of Tesla (without pay) and retain your healthcare benefits. You will not report to work until the furlough ends and you are directed to return by management, which we expect to be May 4.
- A furlough notice will be emailed to you in the coming days with additional instructions on how to apply for unemployment benefits through your state agency.
- For the vast majority of furloughed employees, unemployment benefits will be roughly equivalent to normal take home pay.
- Certain employees will be assigned to critical functions and they will continue to report onsite. Those employees will be communicated to directly by their manager or HR partner.
- Salary and hourly rate adjustments will be put on hold.
- Equity grants will be on hold as well.
We continue to monitor the situation closely, and our top priority is to ensure the safety of our employees. As usual, for those who are onsite, if you are sick or are uncomfortable coming to work, please contact your manager and stay at home. We respect your decision and you will not be penalized. For HR-related questions, contact your HR partner or email [redacted].
Thank you all so very much for everything you do to ensure the success of our company.
Valerie
Valerie Capers Workman | North America HR + AU/NZ/JP/KR Registered In House Counse"
Even with all the vertical integration Tesla has mastered I think the supply chain impacts is what I would be most concerned about. I think Q2 could be mostly Model Y production in Fremont and Model 3 production in Shanghai.
I realize EV-CPO is at best directional in terms of inventory numbers but I have seen US and ROW inventory drop gradually this month. Assuming they sell all of the Q1 inventory I can see deliveries of 14K Q1inventory+35K model 3s in China+ 20-25K new Q2 production inventory; 70-75K deliveries.
Pras
Member
Technically they are making <7.5k a week. So 6 week is only 45k. Ramp up slowness can be covered over time, given they will add some efficiency. Yes Q2 can be slow, I guess 70-90k deliveries (from the inventory 20k, and new production from China GF3 20-30k, and Fremont 45k).
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Coronavirus is setting everyone back, including Tesla.
Rivian Job 1 late 2020 being moved to 2021 isn't necessarily a year.
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