Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[mikevbf]

Tesla letter to employees snip:

While we are continuing to keep only minimum critical operations running, we expect to resume normal production at our U.S. facilities on May 4, barring any significant changes.

Do you think Tesla plans "normal production" in Nevada without Panasonic's employees?

 

[wipster]

Former CBOE market maker Jon Najarian was a regular guest of mine on my old TV show during my daily visits to the CBOE. He also orchestrated the mock trading in which I participated a couple of times during after hours in a CBOE trading pit.

Today on CNBC, Jon bullishly answered a viewer's question about TSLA. That begins at the 2:37 minute mark of the video below.

CNBC - hour ago:

Thanks for sharing the information you have about these folks Curt, very enlightening. If you have confidence in their comments, I know I can trust them as well!

 

[wipster]

Is anybody else annoyed that GM is getting paid about $16k per ventilator and the stock goes up 10%. I thought the supply of ventilators was under control? Meanwhile Tesla does the right thing. Karma's a bitch, lookout GM.

They're going to have to change their name to Government Motors pretty soon anyway...

 

[LJS22]

Analyst on CNBC said auto stocks are up on possible auto stimulus coming. Also said don’t own auto stocks as they have performed poorly in the best conditions why own them in the worst.

without mentioning Tesla he said “unless you think there will be a radical shift in how people buy cars...which I don’t.”

CNBC is just working around Tesla’s success all day, they’ve tried to highlight the negative but we all notice one auto stock is looking a little different than the rest!

 

[Steve m]

I see the furloughing of employees as a way to put pressure on the state government to reopen the factory.

The state orders the factory closed then let the state pay the factory workers wages.

 

[skybluecgreen]

Do you think Tesla plans "normal production" in Nevada without Panasonic's employees?

I think it implies Panasonic employees will also return at that time because it seems they would have to for production to be normal but I haven't seen anything definitive on that.

 

[Dutchie]

Polestar Precept: close look at the sleek new electric sedan - Electrek

The Volvo concept has a lot of neat ideas. Would be great to see in many manufacturers cars.

Geely and Polestar seem to be amazing in marketing. I see that so often - people thinking that Polestar is the same as Volvo. Some even think it is Swedish.

Polestar is a brand under the Geely Group, the same as Volvo Cars. Polestar is made in China and has nothing to do with Volvo, other than they both fall under the same parent company

 

[ZeApelido]

How's Tesla ventilator search result on Google trend? Don't ever discount Tesla from being away from some good pr.

 

[LN1_Casey]

I see the furloughing of employees as a way to put pressure on the state government to reopen the factory.

The state orders the factory closed then let the state pay the factory workers wages.

I disagree. It's just good economic sense for them to not have the drain of employee's wages during the shutdown when they can't really produce their products to compensate.

 

[StealthP3D]

CNBC is just working around Tesla’s success all day, they’ve tried to highlight the negative but we all notice one auto stock is looking a little different than the rest!

 

[UCF3]

I see the furloughing of employees as a way to put pressure on the state government to reopen the factory.
The state orders the factory closed then let the state pay the factory workers wages.

I’m not sure you understand how unemployment insurance works. Companies pay unemployment insurance on every employee during good times to the states and then those funds are used by the states when tough times hit. Also when a company has claims for unemployment insurance I believe their rate paid to the state increases in future years.

Polestar is made in China and has nothing to do with Volvo, other than they both fall under the same parent company

I believe Polestar or Polestar 2 are going to be manufactured in South Carolina at a Volvo plant north of Charleston.

 

[dl003]

What is the probability of Tesla selling ventilators, not just within the US but globally, at a profit if Coronavirus is going to be with us for years to come? Obviously the cost of producing one is much cheaper than what GM can muster up. Elon can keep giving these away but if there's a permanent market for it I don't see anything wrong with expanding the product line.

 

[Steve m]

I’m not sure you understand how unemployment insurance works. Companies pay unemployment insurance on every employee during good times to the states and then those funds are used by the states when tough times hit. Also when a company has claims for unemployment insurance I believe their rate paid to the state increases in future years.

I am very well aware of how unemployment insurance works. The state does not charge different rates to different customers. So the government may raise the tax for all companies but not just for one.

"In fact, the California Unemployment Insurance Fund, according to a report from the U.S. Department of Labor, is the least solvent of any state’s and even a tiny economic downturn would quickly drive it into the red."


www.mercurynews.com/2019/07/29/walters-californias-unemployment-insurance-fund-is-the-least-solvent-of-any-states/

 

[MaChiMiB]

My analysis of todays GF3 drone shots:

• Production and shipping of Model 3s is rolling again
• Number of Model 3s parked on the back side of the lot is the same as last weekend
  
• Construction of Phase 3A (wrongly labeled 2A) is as fast as Phase 1 last year
• Not sure if Phase 3B will be one big building or multiple smaller ones. The middle of the construction area has no foundations (yet).
  
• As you can see on the bottom middle in this pic, the second super charging lot is almost ready
  
• 

 

[MC3OZ]

How does focusing on the lowest margin product help the rebound? In normal times, the $35k M3 was not nearly as popular as all the whiners would have led us to believe before it went live. I doubt any of the bitches that claimed it was only a shell game by Tesla to keep buyers on the sidelines for as long as possible, never bought one nor had any intention to.
Instead, due to reduced production and dwindling inventory, the fact that Tesla is still the BEV leader in every measurable category will ensure the demand will be even stronger once the economy unclutches the pearls. I see us back to a 400,000 backlog.
Lastly, stripping out OTA software doesn't save Tesla a dime. It works just the opposite. After the development costs have been amortized, it prints money. They would need to reduce real, physical car parts to save money.

I'll explain my thinking...

I don't think there is a certain demand problem, but Tesla is better off throwing too many demand levers than not enough demand levers.
If they accidentally create excess demand in a economic downturn that is a good outcome, they then only need to focus on supply.

• Making more Model Ys and additional variants is one demand lever.
• Exporting Model Y to Europe is another demand lever.
• Having the 35K Model 3 on menu is big demand lever, especially if the cheapest Model Y is at least 7K more.

We need to look at they the 35K Model 3 was off menu, it was not profitable at that price, or wasn't an good use of batteries 6 months ago.

I'm suggesting a lot can change in 6 months and I have always expected it back on menu, because that was the original aim and it unlocks a lot of additional demand.

Why I say that about demand is, every buyer has their maximum price, the 25K-40K price band is particularly price sensitive, and the "Tesla stretch" will be less common in an economic downturn.

But i don't want the 35K Model 3 back on menu at any price, I want it at a price where it is profitable, stripping out software, is possibly synced with dropping the price of basic autopilot and increasing the price of FSD. The hope is that the buyer will upgrade to autopilot + FSD later.

What I think has improved in the last 6 months to allow Tesla to lower prices (or improve margins) is:-

• More plant depreciation
• Process/productivity improvements
• Cell chemistry improvements
• Higher combined volume Model 3 + Y

My argument is at present Tesla is better off selling a higher volume of cars at a lower gross margin, than a lower volume of cars at a higher margin.

The 35K Model 3 might not be the right demand lever at this time, but one day soon it will be.

Return of LR RWD Model 3 is another possibility..

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

I dont know what it means but it seems bullish AF. Hopefully we’ll learn at battery investor day.


Elon Musk on Twitter

 

[powertoold]

Alien dreadnaught has landed?

 

[AndyH]

Geely and Polestar seem to be amazing in marketing. I see that so often - people thinking that Polestar is the same as Volvo. Some even think it is Swedish.

Polestar is a brand under the Geely Group, the same as Volvo Cars. Polestar is made in China and has nothing to do with Volvo, other than they both fall under the same parent company

Polestar is a racing team that raced modified Volvos. 10 years ago Volvo bought them and started releasing Polestar tuned Volvos. Both are technically under Geely but Volvo Cars are still parents of Polestar at least in some aspects.

I'd love to own a Polestar, they're good looking cars with a slightly more luxurious feel than Teslas. But the problems with owning a Polestar are the same as most EVs apart from Teslas. Inferior efficiency, no proper charging network and no autopilot goodness.

 

[Creekstalker]

The easiest tell and "red flag" I should say is that a scammer will post some big result only after an event that generated money. Some might have made some prediction before the date of an event, but if you track what happens after, they don't pan out. But somehow, they magically made so much money on some "hidden" trade they never announced. The real ones you should follow are those who made the prediction before the date that the prediction should happen. As human, we get swept away by the flashy winners as it takes so much more work to track people's prediction and having to verify them time after time once the date expires.

A mild form of this phenomenon occurs here fairly often the past few weeks. Go back a couple days and almost every trading anecdote since $970 in February was a winner. Everyone miraculously sold above the $700s and bought back at $400. It's just human nature. We tend to mention our victories and stay quiet about our losses, particularly among strangers.

I just buy and hold and buy more when I can. I've done this since 2013. I'm down bigly since February- on paper at least. That's pretty boring, but I can guarantee this...

I've never sold a share, therefore the stock has never dropped even temporarily on my account. That's my "wall street bet", and I'm proud of it.

So cheers to all of us boring, steadfast owners of a company we believe in.

 

[Mike Smith]

I dont know what it means but it seems bullish AF. Hopefully we’ll learn at battery investor day.
View attachment 530402

Elon Musk on Twitter

There's a very high likelihood he's talking about Tesla's battery technology. A Battery Day date could be imminent.