Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[bpjod]

I'll let you figure that one out.. the 940 price was never a sustained price, but you use the data you want to draw the conclusions that suit you.. bud

Try starting at 1/1/2020... and go from there.

sure pick an arbitrary date to suit your narrative bud. Keep up the good work.

Well, picking TSLA's high is an equally arbitrary date.

Here's a fun table I threw together using other arbitrary dates.

First we have the daily highs from the days TSLA, F & GM all hit their 52 week highs.
Then the daily lows from the days they each hit their 52 week lows.
Then YTD, 3m, 6m and 12m performance (I used the daily opening price).​

All are relative to today's opening prices. It's really not hard to see that in spite of TSLA's drop from it's 52w high (also its ATH), it's still very much out-performing F & GM:

Personally, I worry about the performance of my TSLA holdings which is up 85%. They're up even more when you factor in the US$/CAN$ exchange rates on the days I purchased the shares relative to today. So yeah, if you bought in at $940 then I can see why you're not so happy, but otherwise $940 is just an arbitrary number too.

 

[plug&play]

Looks like MMs have decided we are closing at $570 today. I don't think I have ever seen this stock stay flat like that, as it has for the past hour.

 

[powertoold]

I wonder if tooling up for Semi production would be too large a task for them to undertake as well.

Semi production is likely contingent on Tesla's own battery production.

 

[gtrplyr1]

I would think Medtronic would not appreciate Tesla running with their market, so I would guess they will have made some agreements on this front.. Tesla could profit as long as Medtronic profits more kinda deal..

Tim Cook once said that the hardest thing to do at Apple was deciding NOT to do something. Given the fact that Apple has vast resources and talent they could almost pick any industry and go after them ..... while I'm very proud to know that Tesla has stepped up in this regard to help during the crisis I much prefer that Tesla stay in their lanes and use all of it's resources to continue with it's mission in green transportation and energy.

Cheers to the longs ...

 

[ggr]

Nice call! I bought one yesterday to play along with you. Thanks! Now I wish I had bought two Are you planning to hold one or both over the weekend?

One of the reasons I bought two is that I immediately enter a 60-day order to sell one of them at twice the purchase price. Mine cost $23.47, which means the stock has to be at or above $568.47 at the end of next week for me to make a profit. With manipulations figured in, it's often the case that they're looking good until someone manipulates them down. Also I can't be watching the options prices that closely. So this strategy takes advantage of any instantaneous pop to recover my capital investment. Any residual value the other one has at or near expiry is pure profit. I expect that first one to sell sometime on Monday, but who knows? Current book profit is 67%.

HODL works for stocks, just ride out the waves. It works as well for LEAPS, particularly ones that are deep in the money. But shorter term options need to be watched. This is my strategy for making the broker watch for me instead of me having to do it. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Tim Cook once said that the hardest thing to do at Apple was deciding NOT to do something. Given the fact that Apple has vast resources and talent they could almost pick any industry and go after them ..... while I'm very proud to know that Tesla has stepped up in this regard to help during the crisis I much prefer that Tesla stay in their lanes and use all of it's resources to continue with it's mission in green transportation and energy.

Cheers to the longs ...

I've been saying from the beginning....the thing that's making all this work is merely a coincidence. Elon just happens to need all these projects to make his Mars vision work.

 

[Papafox]

Looks like MMs have decided we are closing at $570 today. I don't think I have ever seen this stock stay flat like that, as it has for the past hour.

My take is that the plan for the hedge funds that were selling call options but not delta-hedging is that they planned to hold TSLA below 550 going into today's close. Too much good news came out this morning and they lost control of the stock price. If you look at the opricot.com chart below for options expiring today, there's a "sugarload" of call options at 570-580. Because of the manipulations that are so apparent for option strike prices such as 550 and 600, option buyers are opting for the more obscure strike prices right now.

Thus, we saw capping at 570. A few minutes ago the cap was broken, the SP ran up to nearly 575, and then the SP was walked back down to 570 again.

We live in interesting times.

Edit: You see that dip below 568 at 2:20pm? My guess is that was a trial pushdown after the hedge funds successfully defeated the climb toward 575. They hoped for a bigger dip but it couldn't be pulled off. I wouldn't be surprised to see the SP break either up or down going into close. Additional descent of macros helps the break down, and hungry longs would help the break to the high side.

 

[SO16]

sure pick an arbitrary date to suit your narrative bud. Keep up the good work.

1/1 isn’t completely arbitrary. Quite often when the news talks about stocks, they say “year to date” or “for the year”.....do they not?

Also TSLA is up when looking back just 3 months, 6 months, a year, 5 years, and 10 years. etc. Sure can’t say that about GM and Ford.

 

[BLSmith2112]

Aren't we overdue for Moody's upgrade anytime soon? Or have they updated their ratings recently and I just completely whiffed on knowing about it?

 

[CorneliusXX]

It will make a lot of things survive. But also create a lot of problems as it destroys the hedging mechanism.

My guess is mbs defaults in 4 months.

At the same time it's a struggle between deflationary forces of depression and inflationary forces of money printing. It'll be pretty similar to 2009. As in certain things will be surpressed while others go through huge inflation. Tech will eventually become tge beneficiary in this environment if it can survive the initial destruction.

I am about 50% in inflation protected asset right now and 25% in tesla.

How long can SA survive with oil at this price. MBS could be more concerned about regime change than defaulting.

 

[Papafox]

Have you ever watched the Tour de France and seen that group of bicycles in the lead, knowing that at some point one or more of the riders will break free of the pack and make a sprint for the finish line? That's how I feel about TSLA at the moment. The winner may be a "run up" contestant or a "push down" contestant. I really can't call the winner, but I have to say we've see one attempt for a "run up contestant": to break from the pack so far and two attempts for a "push down" contestant to break free from the pack (price 570ish). Popping more popcorn for the finale.

Edit: And the winner is "run up" by half a wheel's length. That contestant is now being drug-tested at the moment, so we will hold off with an official announcement.

 

[CorneliusXX]

More than half an hour without any posts?

Great job mods, great job!

No one is talking rona either. Glad that's behind us.

 

[Artful Dodger]

File this under N.S.S.:

"Palihapitiya: US shouldn't bail out hedge funds, billionaires during coronavirus pandemic"

 

[Mo City]

How long can SA survive with oil at this price. MBS could be more concerned about regime change than defaulting.

This is very off-topic but I totally agree with you. I've said for many years KSA is doomed to increasing irrelevancy and chaos as the world leaves them behind and MBS is a psychopath that will guarantee a spectacular crash landing.

 

[Tim S]

How long can SA survive with oil at this price. MBS could be more concerned about regime change than defaulting.

I think @Causalien meant Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) will be defaulting, not the Saudi prince or the guy who brushes his teeth on the toilet.

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

1/1 isn’t completely arbitrary. Quite often when the news talks about stocks, they say “year to date” or “for the year”.....do they not?

Also TSLA is up when looking back just 3 months, 6 months, a year, 5 years, and 10 years. etc. Sure can’t say that about GM and Ford.

And that’s exactly in line with the trajectories of each company....

 

[Tim S]

One of the reasons I bought two is that I immediately enter a 60-day order to sell one of them at twice the purchase price. Mine cost $23.47, which means the stock has to be at or above $568.47 at the end of next week for me to make a profit. With manipulations figured in, it's often the case that they're looking good until someone manipulates them down. Also I can't be watching the options prices that closely. So this strategy takes advantage of any instantaneous pop to recover my capital investment. Any residual value the other one has at or near expiry is pure profit. I expect that first one to sell sometime on Monday, but who knows? Current book profit is 67%.

HODL works for stocks, just ride out the waves. It works as well for LEAPS, particularly ones that are deep in the money. But shorter term options need to be watched. This is my strategy for making the broker watch for me instead of me having to do it. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't.

I chickened out and sold my Apr 17 $545 call at $40 just before the close (bought yesterday at $24). I did use the profits to buy two cheaper $600 calls (also Apr 17), so I won't miss out if the run-up continues Monday.

Edit: I agree with whoever said people in general only post their winning trades, not their losers. Full disclosure: I bought 5 SPY puts as a hedge on Mar 30. I sold 2 two days later for ~$1000 gain. The other 3 expired worthless today for an overall loss of ~$1400. I think I'll stick with TSLA shares and calls.

FYI all my short-term trades are in a Roth IRA so there are no taxes. Most of my TSLA shares are in my regular account with no plans to sell anytime soon.

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

Well, picking TSLA's high is an equally arbitrary date.

Here's a fun table I threw together using other arbitrary dates.

First we have the daily highs from the days TSLA, F & GM all hit their 52 week highs.
Then the daily lows from the days they each hit their 52 week lows.
Then YTD, 3m, 6m and 12m performance (I used the daily opening price).​

All are relative to today's opening prices. It's really not hard to see that in spite of TSLA's drop from it's 52w high (also its ATH), it's still very much out-performing F & GM:

View attachment 530768

Personally, I worry about the performance of my TSLA holdings which is up 85%. They're up even more when you factor in the US$/CAN$ exchange rates on the days I purchased the shares relative to today. So yeah, if you bought in at $940 then I can see why you're not so happy, but otherwise $940 is just an arbitrary number too.

Again missing the point. F and GM are on a significant sales downtrend with a likelihood of bankruptcy in the medium term future, while Tesla continues to grow massively. Anyone who thinks $940 was a flash in the pan should not be invested in this stock as they clearly cannot project into the future. All this to say that picking random dates to justify F and GM rebounding much faster than TSLA is laughable.

 

[vikings123]

Have you ever watched the Tour de France and seen that group of bicycles in the lead, knowing that at some point one or more of the riders will break free of the pack and make a sprint for the finish line? That's how I feel about TSLA at the moment. The winner may be a "run up" contestant or a "push down" contestant. I really can't call the winner, but I have to say we've see one attempt for a "run up contestant": to break from the pack so far and two attempts for a "push down" contestant to break free from the pack (price 570ish). Popping more popcorn for the finale.

View attachment 530847

Definitely an impressive day when you look at the volatility for other stocks. Do you feel like we built a nice support base around 570? Next week we should fly if macros cooperate and shorts get margin called. I'm looking forward to your daily report. Cheers

 

[Lbkmxp100d]

Have you ever watched the Tour de France and seen that group of bicycles in the lead, knowing that at some point one or more of the riders will break free of the pack and make a sprint for the finish line? That's how I feel about TSLA at the moment. The winner may be a "run up" contestant or a "push down" contestant. I really can't call the winner, but I have to say we've see one attempt for a "run up contestant": to break from the pack so far and two attempts for a "push down" contestant to break free from the pack (price 570ish). Popping more popcorn for the finale.

View attachment 530847

Looks like we have the lead into 3 day weekend! Big seller at 370 this am and 371 this afternoon that finally got cleaned up just before close. Maybe we start to get back to Monday gap opens?!