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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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So, I guess somebody got the leaked financials from Q1.
I've been not looking since this morning. Just looked, up $52, went straight to ir.tesla.com wondering what the hell happened now. Nope no early release of Q1. Maybe someone thinks Elon is digging for oil with those tunnels??? :confused:
 
Do we have any idea of when earnings day will be? I looked on it.tesla.com and didn't see any announcement there.

The lack of an announced day is bothering me - I don't take it as bearish or bullish. I take it as a sign of weakness of the company's accounting system that they can't pre-announce a schedule for earnings that we can plan around.
I hope it comes very shortly after Ford & GM, since by comparison it will look amazing.
 
The lack of an announced day is bothering me - I don't take it as bearish or bullish. I take it as a sign of weakness of the company's accounting system that they can't pre-announce a schedule for earnings that we can plan around.

Tesla is decoupling from our systems in many ways (borrowing that term here). Just like they never adjusted delivery outlooks in Q1, and no more tweets. IMO, the less Tesla says about details or forecasts, the more fear they induce on competitors. I expect earnings around 29th from what I've read anyway.
 
I have chosen....

Wisely

Accurate 34/34 days now over 180 days.
 

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Do we have any idea of when earnings day will be? I looked on it.tesla.com and didn't see any announcement there.

The lack of an announced day is bothering me - I don't take it as bearish or bullish. I take it as a sign of weakness of the company's accounting system that they can't pre-announce a schedule for earnings that we can plan around.

Are accounting firms essential?

They announce ~13 days ahead of time, and it is either the last Wednesday of the last full week, or the Wednesday of the split week.
So it will likely be April 29th. Unless Covid pushes it out to May 6th, but that is very late.

Q42019: Announced Jan 17 that it would be Jan 29
Q3: Oct 9 -> Oct 23
Q2:: Jul 11 -> July 24
Q1: April 11 -> April 24
Q4 2018: Jan 18 -> Jan 30
Q3: Oct 22???-> Oct 24
Q2: July 18 -> Aug 1
Q1: April 19 -> May 2
 
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One tiny datum... I have this $800 call, exp Jan '21, that just broke even. It's been negative all along but really popped today! This is a first for me anyway. Every option I ever bought went to zero (only 2, but still).

Anyway, I think this means a lot more people think $800 SP is nearing. (Note to self... don't wait until expiration date).
 
Do we have any idea of when earnings day will be? I looked on it.tesla.com and didn't see any announcement there.

The lack of an announced day is bothering me - I don't take it as bearish or bullish. I take it as a sign of weakness of the company's accounting system that they can't pre-announce a schedule for earnings that we can plan around.
Lol, worry much? :p

The date for 2019Q4 Results was announced on Jan 17, 2020. So any 2020Q1 Earnings date announced before Friday would be EARLY.
 
I've been not looking since this morning. Just looked, up $52, went straight to ir.tesla.com wondering what the hell happened now. Nope no early release of Q1. Maybe someone thinks Elon is digging for oil with those tunnels??? :confused:
It is possible that somebody knows something. There was a lot of short term calls being purchased but it's also likely that this is just people assessing value. Tesla has dropped far more than the rest of the market to date and competitors are looking really weak.



One tiny datum... I have this $800 call, exp Jan '21, that just broke even. It's been negative all along but really popped today! This is a first for me anyway. Every option I ever bought went to zero (only 2, but still).

Anyway, I think this means a lot more people think $800 SP is nearing. (Note to self... don't wait until expiration date).
I bailed on my $1100 Jan 21 call today but keeping my $800s. It's a gamble but I think hitting that is definitely a possibility. Agreed though if I'm up by a sizable amount before then I will close.
 
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If Giga Shanghai can really ramp, then it doesn't matter as much if Fremont is down. Excess MIC cars can be sold in Europe etc.

I haven't seen any indication that Tesla can't deliver the entire China production in China for as far as the eye can see. If and when they have excess production at GF3, they will sell them in the greater Asian region before shipping them to Europe. I don't see that happening until well after they have the GF3 factory expansion complete and are pumping out lots and lots of Model Y's.
 
It is possible that somebody knows something. There was a lot of short term calls being purchased but it's also likely that this is just people assessing value. Tesla has dropped far more than the rest of the market to date and competitors are looking really weak.

My guess is the word is out that they're working on another capital raise. If they raised another $2B through equity here the market would love it.
 
I haven't seen any indication that Tesla can't deliver the entire China production in China for as far as the eye can see. If and when they have excess production at GF3, they will sell them in the greater Asian region before shipping them to Europe. I don't see that happening until well after they have the GF3 factory expansion complete and are pumping out lots and lots of Model Y's.
I expect so as well. Demand seems more than adequate.

I also want to point out that these oil price shenanigans increased the push even more for China and other nations to decouple from oil. When the Saudis and Russians can tank your economy at will, that's not a good position to be in.

My guess is the word is out that they're working on another capital raise. If they raised another $2B through equity here the market would love it.
Normally I'd say that would be crazy during this environment but money is easy to come by right now. Deploying money for new factories will also be easy. In 3-6 months every state/city/nation in the world will be begging for a new factory and the associated jobs.
 
Amazing run today, but when will TSLA and overall market adjust based on Q1 EPS falling off the cliff? Does a v-shaped recovery make sense at this point?

I wouldn’t be surprised if Tesla uses the Q1 report or call to reaffirm guidance of 500,000 deliveries in 2020.

I think that they can deliver close to 200,000 Model 3 in China and 100,000 Model Y in the US. Then they would only need 50,000 Model S/X worldwide and 150,000 Model 3 for the US, Europe, southeast Asia and the rest of the world. Even in a recession that should be possible.

If they reaffirm guidance I’m expecting a 100-150 point jump.
 
My interpretation is some investors(hey shorts are investors too, right?) just realized GF3 can source everything locally and already doesn’t depend on imports from US.

Also the order book of MIC long range Model 3 scared the s*** out of them.
No, I would argue that shorts are most definitely NOT investors. They are speculators. Any activity that relies on the failure of the company is diametrically opposed the concept of investing.

Dan
 
Are accounting firms essential?

They announce ~13 days ahead of time, and it is either the last Wednesday of the last full week, or the Wednesday of the split week.
So it will likely be April 29th. Unless Covid pushes it out to May 6th, but that is very late.

Q42019: Announced Jan 17 that it would be Jan 29
Q3: Oct 9 -> Oct 23
Q2:: Jul 11 -> July 24
Q1: April 11 -> April 24
Q4 2018: Jan 18 -> Jan 30
Q3: Oct 22???-> Oct 24
Q2: July 18 -> Aug 1
Q1: April 19 -> May 2
ETrade is "expecting" the earnings announcement on the 22nd with a consensus estimate of a $0.10 loss. I agree with mongo that the 29th is more likely.

upload_2020-4-13_13-39-6.png
 
I can't believe that Tesla's hired enviromnental engineers would not have completed a hundred+ bore holes for soil samples on this site before they even purchased the land. Taking soil samples (2" to 3" in diameter to 10' depth or more) is standard practice and a regulatory requirement for all development projects to determine if there are an environmental conditions of the soil (i.e. Radon or Lead contamination) and also the structure of the soil and to determine the type of foundations to be used (slab on grade, piles (like GigaChina) or other). @Gillfoto, can you share where you are getting this information? Ontario and Quebec provicial governments, Canada, shut down Commercial construction projects (Residential and essential services Construction still open) to help prevent spread of COVID-19. Has Germany changed their positon from March 25th?
German construction continues through crisis
Sorry I should have posted this link at the time.
Tesla Berlin Gigafactory stalls, reportedly has to revise foundation due to soil issue - Electrek
 
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