Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Krugerrand]

As a Tesla owner, I get a lot of heat from friends, neighbors, and people I generally interact with. I can't always just dodge their statements or actions by avoidance. The general climate of the man on the street is getting worse for a Tesla owner.

I suggest it’s the company you keep.

Nobody I generally interact with says one disparaging word about Tesla. I choose to surround myself with intelligent, common sense people, who respect each other.

Of course it might be the T-shirt I wear that says: If you say one disparaging word about Tesla, I use the machete in my hand.

The financial collapse is not a good thing. People are angry, upset and looking for someone to beat on.

Meh. There’s always been people in financial jeopardy and there’s always been angry, upset people. Now there’s a few more.

Their attitudes are largely formed by what they see and hear in the biased mercenary media.

Meh. Their attitudes are largely formed of their own making, in some case exacerbated by loudmouth media, politicians and the like. But make no mistake, they were like that long before they watched Fox news et al..

Your brother in law that criticizes you for driving a car that runs on dirty coal is misinformed by FUD paid for by ads.

Meh. My BIL’s opinion is of no consequence to me and he knows better than to open his mouth in front of me to talk trash anything or anyone of importance to me.

The media seems to need greased palms to inspire truthful reporting.

Then they can go you know what themselves. That’s like me saying I need you to give me money to say truthful things about you, otherwise I’ll go around spouting lies and nonsense.

You going to give me money? No, I didn’t think so. And don’t think for a second I’m not resourceful enough to make your life miserable if I so desired - so that you somehow aren’t under the impression that the media by virtue of an existing audience alone can do harm, while an individual can’t. Oh, yes an individual can: Elon Musk.

What prevents a lot of people from being dicks are things like morals and ethics. The media profession just happens to attract its fair share of dicks.

We are used to Elon tackling insurmountable to impossible tasks to solve problems. We are putting all of our eggs in the Elon basket.

Nope. My eggs are in the TSLA basket, which now includes 50,000ish people worldwide. By association that also includes the hundreds of thousands of people those employees know. It includes Elon Musk and his millions of Twitter followers and the millions more people they know. The basket includes Chinese people and soon a bunch of German people. See where this is going?

The basket is getting pretty big.

 

[StealthP3D]

Investment question: if SpaceX were, hypothetically, to have a catastrophic failure (such as, let's say, a rapid unscheduled disassembly during liftoff) do you all think that would negatively affect Tesla's stock price? Just trying to add up some short-term risk factors.

There is a weak effect there but it's not going to over-ride even a modest tendency in the other direction and the effect will be very short-lived. Unless you are a very short-term trader I wouldn't even consider it.

Overall, SpaceX puts an audaciously big and colorful feather in Elon's cap and not even a mission failure, including death, can completely take that away. On the other hand, if the rocket exploded shortly after lift-off but the crew capsule ejected to safety using the emergency ejection booster rockets, well, that would just be golden! There were no emergency escape mechanisms on previous efforts (Space Shuttle disaster, Apollo, etc).

 

[jbcarioca]

Magna is basically like outsourcing the manufacturing of your vehicle? I mean it would make sense for Apple to go that route since they do that with everything else.

Apple would likely then just do the software.

Yes, Magna-Steyr is the oldest part of Magna. Magna itself is Canadian, wile Steyr has a century-long auto manufacturing business.
https://www.magna.com/docs/default-...ormance-report_2018_en.pdf?sfvrsn=64af2337_24
Perhaps the largest reason why this is relevant to Tesla investors is that the Graz people have begun developing deep expertise in electric vehicles. Obviously they're just beginning, but they're entirely capable of producing low volume vehicles at lower costs than manufacturers do. Just look at their list, including the BMW 5-series as well as Jaguar E-Pace and I-Pace. BTW, they do not even mention the untold dozens of low volume models that are really conversions, including convertibles and armored versions plus quite a few specialist vehicles. There are numerous other companies that do part of what Magna-Steyr does, but perhaps none that do it all for so many OEM's.

We know that Tesla has huge advantages and that legacy engineering rigidity is a large part of inability for others to compete. These people have both the talent and the flexibility. They may not have the capital, and have zero non-OEM sales ability. Jaguar is not their only BEV client, just the first to reach production and the first to become publicly known. FYI, look very closely at their existing client list. Steyr has very loyal customers.

 

[StealthP3D]

Perhaps the largest reason why this is relevant to Tesla investors is that the Graz people have begun developing deep expertise in electric vehicles. Obviously they're just beginning, but they're entirely capable of producing low volume vehicles at lower costs than manufacturers do. Just look at their list, including the BMW 5-series as well as Jaguar E-Pace and I-Pace. BTW, they do not even mention the untold dozens of low volume models that are really conversions, including convertibles and armored versions plus quite a few specialist vehicles.

I would suggest that Tesla is well past the stage where a low-volume production manufacturer like Magna-Steyr is of any significant relevance. Tesla is about EV's for the masses and relentlessly pushing down barriers to entry like high costs.

 

[Unpilot]

Max pain bastages.

 

[Nocturnal]

Investment question: if SpaceX were, hypothetically, to have a catastrophic failure (such as, let's say, a rapid unscheduled disassembly during liftoff) do you all think that would negatively affect Tesla's stock price? Just trying to add up some short-term risk factors.

Probably not. Unless it was found to be negligence or something.

 

[Curt Renz]

Gene Munster on AAPL & TSLA

CNBC - late yesterday: Why these two popular tech stocks should emerge as winners

 

[ZeApelido]

Here’s a funny sign in my town. Car comes to an abrupt emergency stop since the update, gets very confused. Just an example of the many weird corner cases

I'm sure Google has that in their simulator...

 

[Green Pete]

Max pain bastages.

Im not a max pain expert, but the max pain of the next few weeks looks to slowly decline. Is max pain something you can rely on more than a week out? Not gonna sell any shares, but might close some options positions.

 

[Rammstein]

Im not a max pain expert, but the max pain of the next few weeks looks to slowly decline. Is max pain something you can rely on more than a week out? Not gonna sell any shares, but might close some options positions.

I think it’s about reliable as technical analysis. Seems like you can rely on it more often then not. There have been many times where you can see TSLA is pinned to max pain on Friday while the rest of the market is moving up or down. Was working for a while there until a couple of weeks ago when Tesla had the big run up before the GS upgrade. For those couple of weeks the MMs couldn’t keep TSLA down to max pain.

 

[UrsS]

About AI and Stop signs:
Once FSD recognizes that it should stop at an intersection weather there is a stop sign or not then I think the stop sign problem has been solved. Sort of like a reasonable driver.

 

[jbcarioca]

I would suggest that Tesla is well past the stage where a low-volume production manufacturer like Magna-Steyr is of any significant relevance. Tesla is about EV's for the masses and relentlessly pushing down barriers to entry like high costs.

Of course, the issues is NOT Tesla, but OEM's trying to get past their own internal issues. FCA and PSA have both used Steyr to resolve production issues for specialist and/or low volume vehicles. Magna already is a supplier to Tesla for a fair number of parts, and will continue to be. Magna-Steyr won't likely be a part of any of that.

 

[LJS22]

Im not a max pain expert, but the max pain of the next few weeks looks to slowly decline. Is max pain something you can rely on more than a week out? Not gonna sell any shares, but might close some options positions.

Max pain will probably change drastically after earnings. I assume it’s declining as put options increase after a huge run up. Option players assume what goes up must come down

 

[CyberDutchie]

This is obviously personal for him. Even if he has no position, he will continue to spew this nonsense for many years to come. My best advice to TSLA investors is to block him and pay zero attention to him. He has literally been wrong about everything over the years, so you will not be missing out on a pertinent bear case that could help your investment thesis.

Yes, just like Joe the Tiger King obsessed with bringing down Carole Baskin, he’s obsessed with bringing down Elon

 

[mblakele]

China scraps vehicle purchase tax for all NEVs - Global Times

China on Wednesday scrapped the vehicle purchase tax on new-energy vehicles (NEV), effective in 2021 and 2022, in its latest efforts to lift car consumption in China, especially NEVs, at a time when the coronavirus epidemic has squeezed demand.

The new policy was announced by three government departments including the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration.

China has already scrapped the 10 percent vehicle purchase tax on a number of new-energy vehicles before, including some popular models like Tesla's Model 3s. It broadened the scope of cars applicable for the tax exemption to all NEVs this time.

[...]​

 

[Sudre]

Im not a max pain expert, but the max pain of the next few weeks looks to slowly decline. Is max pain something you can rely on more than a week out? Not gonna sell any shares, but might close some options positions.

Max pain is hard to describe in reality. No you can not look more than a week out and even on the week you have to figure out what the Market thinks the Friday will unveil. Plus events and news blows max pain out of the water. MMs can move it all over the place too. It is a guide like Technicals..... and as many here would say Technicals are not useful for deciding on whether to buy, hold or sell a long position.

Unless you are day trading don't even bother looking at either of them. I think of them as emotional expressions of the SP.

 

[jkirkwood001]

It is the Perfect Time for Tesla to Take Control of the Narrative — the Perfect Time to Advertise.

Often, sensible arguments are made that “demand” trumps Tesla’s need to advertise. While persuasive, they overlook sound reasoning for advertising.

In Simon Sinek’s Ted Talk “How Great Leaders Inspire Action” — he uses Apple’s Think Different messaging — to demonstrate inspiration to action. Emphasizing, “People don’t buy what you, they buy why you do it.” Apple compellingly communicated their corporate ethos; We think differently in everything we do.

Tesla’s strategy of replacing mine and burn with renewable energy and sustainable transportation is a good thing, a good thing for our children. We act to benefit our children.

This is the perfect moment in time, to tell a good story. To define Tesla with a better narrative. Tesla’s narrative.

Hi @Jackl1956 ,

A lot of people disagreed with your OP - no shame in that though. The case in support of your suggestion, I think, is NOT for "fanboys". It's for the mainstream buyers who aren't excited by Elon's polarizing tweets (which they don't see anyway). A set of short ads for things like:

• Tesla's are the safest cars ever tested by the NHTSA. By far. Safer for you and your children and grandchildren than any other car on the road.
• Tesla's don't pollute at all. (video of person whiffing away burning oil as a truck pulls from a stop light, and clean Tesla revealed behind pulling away cleanly)
• Tesla's never need oil changes, mufflers, spark plugs, or (typically) brake jobs. Ever. In fact, there is no regular maintenance schedule. At all.
• Tesla's can come and get you in a shopping mall (video of Model S or X pulling up and presenting door, and woman inserting her shopping bags in the frunk)
• Tesla's can be driven in the rain. And sleet, And snow. Etc. (video of Tesla navigating past a stuck 2WD)
• Press a button and say:
  • "Drive to the closest Starbucks"
  • "Play 'Elton John' or "Play '70s disco'"
  • "Turn wipers to low" or "Set climate to 72" or "Set driver's seat to level 2" (video of the seat heater display changing levels)
  • "Text Sam"

No need to promote:

• Performance
• Wheels and accessories
• Market cap

In other words, Tesla has done a fantastic job of appealing especially to males age 20-60 (I'm generalizing of course). They have done a terrible job appealing to over half the other demographics in the world. Advertising would help, once, of course, they make fewer cars than they can sell, which we haven't reached yet.

Thanks, Jack.

 

[GOVA]

Investment question: if SpaceX were, hypothetically, to have a catastrophic failure (such as, let's say, a rapid unscheduled disassembly during liftoff) do you all think that would negatively affect Tesla's stock price? Just trying to add up some short-term risk factors.

I've been thinking about it for months. Unfortunately, that would be taken out of proportion and blown out for days by you know who.

Probably, yes.

 

[jerry33]

I don't know how it is in other states but here in Oregon it is the property owner's responsibility to prevent their trees/shrubs/etc. from blocking visibility of the road and signage. So you would be suing the person who owned that property. (or their insurance.)

It's the same where I live.

 

[Prunesquallor]

There were no emergency escape mechanisms on previous efforts (Space Shuttle disaster, Apollo, etc).

OT

Um, no not correct.

Mercury - launch escape system (tractor rocket)
Gemini - ejection seats (probably a bit dicey)
Apollo - launch escape system (tractor rocket)
Space Shuttle - ejection seats on early test flights (probably dicey), “intact abort” landings (engine out), bailout (probably dicey). Obviously insufficient.
Orion - launch escape (tractor rocket)
All Soviet/Russian and Chinese spacecraft employed launch escape systems (tractor rockets)

Dragon (and Starliner) are unique in that they use integral “pusher rockets”.