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Based on the top post I am going to revise upwards:
Q1 - 20%
Q2 - 50%
Q3 - 80%

Come on Giga Shanghai!!

I'd say Q1 is less likely at maybe 10-15%. We'd really need a lot of credit sales, and/or other unexpected tailwinds.

I agree with your Q2 assessment.

Q3 is way more likely than 80% imo. I'd go with 90% at least. Barring crazy COVID stuff, it's pretty much a lock.
 
QUOTE="Krugerrand, post: 4657477, member: 10007"]I did almost buy a 3/4 acre island several years ago with a cute house on it. It wasn’t as much money as you might think. So joking, not joking. I’d totally walk into a bank with duffel bags to withdraw my money.[/QUOTE]

Here's a 9.5 acre island in the bahamas for 3M and change. Surprisingly affordable, and it's wired for electric, internet, and stuff to the mainland.
https://www.privateislandsonline.com/caribbean/bahamas/victoria-point-cays-1

H'mm - maybe I need an island too. I really liked the Bahamas when I visited previously.
 
I understand people getting concerned about COVID-19, that makes perfect sense.
I think the general concern about COVID-19 is transferring to a concern about Tesla.
But why now?
I was more concerned with:-
  • Production Hell - 2018
  • Funding Secured 420 -2018
  • Q1 2019
Those that have been around for longer can add to that list while I was not actively following Tesla at the time:-
  • 2008 Roadster and GFC - very bad
  • Model X Ramp - quality issues -bad

Ignoring the macro environments, I think Tesla is doing well in the following areas:-
  • Production - Fremont and Shanghai
  • Model Y
  • Revenue growth (Macro dependent) - demand growth
  • Free cash - growth (Macro dependent)
  • Battery development - Battery Day
  • Vehicle improvements - Model Y casting, Cybertruck, Semi
  • Product line up
  • Factory site selection and construction.
  • EV Credits
  • FSD development
In terms of surviving COVID-19 starting with 8 Billion in the bank is a great advantage, tha i s the main reason I'm not overly concerned with COVID-19.

Then when we look at the competition:-
  • EV and FSD development lagging and budgets may be cut.
  • Inventory sitting own dealer lots - reduced demand even before COVID-19.
  • Car leases financed by the car maker - cars may decline in value - car maker provides finance.
  • Burning cash faster with the COVID-19 down turn.
So I can't see why COVID-19 doesn't go much worse for most of the rest of the car industry, while that is no great cause for joy, it is an additional assurance that in the unlikely event that Tesla needed to raise money they could..

So what would make me concerned now?
  • Q2 demand/production - I expect there may be issues - better than Q1 2019 is my low bar target.
  • 2nd wave of COVID-19, or more general financial downturn - perhaps I am concerned/ if/when/how that plays out.
  • Something I don't expect that indicates poor decision making, or rapid cash burn...
So when there is definite evidence I should be concerned, I will be concerned, but I am not jumping at shadows...

I'm assuming at worst COVID-19 lasts 12-24 months,,,, even in a multiple wave scenario, and that $8 Billion is enough cash to ride though that time period...

Those that think we should be worried, should provide detailed reasons if they want to advance the debate..
 
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Latest Jason Yang video of Giga Shanghai progress:
(recorded one day after Wuwas latest video).

Production seems to run at a good speed. Plenty of cars at/near the test track. Many containers at the GA docks.
Screenshot (147).png

Shipping looks nice too, plenty trucks and Model 3s. Good amount of containers at the BIW docks.
Screenshot (148).png



Got an idea how the Model Y castings get from the machine (lower right in the first pic, adjacent to the Model 3 press) to the new Model Y complex. They'll likely use a overhead transportation system (conveyor or something similar) to cross the street. You can see a big opening for that on the right side on this picture below.
Screenshot (149).png


Construction process is nice. I don't see any hiccups (in contrast to Giga Berlin).
One thing I wonder is why there is a gap (and street) between the buildings on the southern end of the Model Y complex. There are no pillars to extend the "mesh" structure roof. The Model Y complex will look quite different from the Model 3 complex.
Screenshot (150).png
 
Tesla also has another virtual tailwind for 2020Q2 GAAP profitability (the one that matters for S&P 500 inclusion). From the Apr 7, 2020 Tesla HR email to all employees:

"Equity grants will be on hold as well."​

This effectively means no stock based compensation payable in 2020Q2, thus zero GAAP expense for this item, which is a major contributor to the difference between reported GAAP vs non-GAAP income.

As a final note, this also likely means that the 1st tranche of Elon's 'see-eee-ohh' compensation will be deferred at least until Q3, again meaning that Tesla will not have to claim that amnt against GAAP expenses.

One more tailwind:

The letter Tesla sent out to their landlords telling them they were proactively reducing rental payments due to Coronavirus. I wonder if they were crunching some forward-looking numbers and saw that S&P inclusion was somewhat probable and so they decided to tighten the proverbial belt a little to decrease the odds of missing it.
 
That was so convoluted I puked reading it. :p

I keed, I keed! I love your posts!

This is how it works:

Any light or stop sign it recognizes (or thinks it recognizes as one) you get a distance countdown. I’ve gotten anywhere from 25 to 700 feet depending on various circumstances, like when I engaged TACC or AP relative to the light/stop sign, how quickly it was able to identify a light/stop sign, whether there was another vehicle directly ahead of me etc... Most often the warning was 600 ft if the road ahead was clear.

Once you indicate the vehicle should NOT stop, it goes. Period. End of story. The only situations I’ve so far encountered where it won’t go is if a) there is a vehicle/obstacle directly in front of me, in which case it follows/stops according to TACC/AP rules FIRST and then lights/stop sign rules SECOND or b) it gets confused/is uncertain.

Example of b) - car indicated it was going to stop for a traffic (something — the exact word escapes me at this moment) in 300ft. I tapped the accelerator to indicate the car should not stop because there was no reason for it to stop at the railway tracks.

Car picked up speed then quickly indicated again it was going to stop for a traffic something in 200ft. I tapped the accelerator, car picked up speed again. Car indicated a third time it was going to stop for a traffic something in 100ft. I tapped the accelerator, car picked up speed and went over the tracks. I then pulled over, lowered my window and puked.

Never once did it slow or stop moving for a change of light from green to yellow or yellow to red once I’d tapped the accelerator. I’m not inclined to go through intersections on yellow lights as a general rule, but I did it a few times to see what would happen. It went.

I had a very interesting and uncommon situation show up that made me say; ‘And that Google/Waymo/dumb-dumbs is why you don’t geofence.

Every day I go through a two-way stop intersection. The way I go through it (going and coming back) I’m not required to stop, just the cross traffic. It’s a rather big intersection despite the cross road where most cars come from is a narrow, often one lane mountain backroad. However, that leads to a four lane road on the other side of the intersection. My direction is just two lanes, though the intersection grows to 6 lanes width in my direction.

Yes, it’s really funky designed because traffic on these 4 roads can be literally nothing for 10 miles in all directions to it takes 3 hours to go 1/2 a mile.

There have been A LOT of accidents at this intersection and in fact I almost got broad sided once myself. Three cheers for defensive driving training! I had no idea a mini van could handle like that when you needed it to.

Anyway back to my interesting, uncommon situation. I drove through the no lights intersection like always on my way to my destination. 4 hours later upon returning they’d started erecting traffic light poles, though they weren’t finished and the lights of course were not working.

At first it seemed my car would just plow through, but then finally at 300ft it recognized the light poles and started to slowdown, then it accelerated again having decided it made a mistake, then it slowed again at 200ft, then it accelerated again thinking it was wrong, and then finally at 100ft it decided it was in fact right and braked heavily to stop at which point I tapped the accelerator to indicate it should go through the not yet working lights. (Then I pulled over, rolled down my window and puked.)

I also had the car briefly mistake a crossroad stop sign as one it should obey. Not really the fault of the car, the sign was twisted and not fully facing the correct direction. In the end the car correctly decided it didn’t need to obey it.

I also had it briefly mistake a crosswalk type setup as a place it should stop.

Yes, I drove all over and drove a lot and threw every scenario at it I could come up with. (Got free Supercharging miles I need to use up before the Lord taketh away again.)

I think the feature is the cat’s meow. It’s not perfect as I’d not expect it to be, but so far the imperfection isn’t the wrong kind - as in it errs on the cautious side.

Buy and hold dummies.
 
I haven't even bothered to find out which (former I assume) mod instigated this, but as to how it could happen, I can only think of one logical answer.

I don't know if this is the case but the only thing that makes sense to me is that an anti-Tesla person (TSLAQ or otherwise) managed to pose as a Tesla supporter long enough to bamboozle their way to a moderator position in order to sow discord. I don't know if this is the case but how else could it happen? :confused:

If that's what happened, it was quite a coup! :(

Suppose you were a Tesla troll and suppose you wanted to disrupt the TMC community.

Now suppose you used the forum rules and mods to sow partisan discord.

I am not privy to the data and evidence; but I would like to see the hypothesis tested.
"Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity"
 
The local caves will be perfect for the Tesla Raves! :D Done deal!

Tesla supposedly bought land near Jarrell TX, which is nearby where I live. Not close enough to walk to for me, but I could ride my bike there. I haven't heard any local buzz about the purchase but of course I also haven't been out much lately. Nothing in the local papers that I read. I don't know exactly where the land is located, but everything around Jarrell is agricultural and would not need to bulldoze a forest for example. There are some gently rolling hills that would need some levelling if a large building were to be constructed but no major ecological issues. The land is mostly limestone underneath the top layer. I'm not a structural guy but I wouldn't think that there would be problems putting in a serious foundation. The Balcones fault is nearby to the west but no local faulting. A few caves and sinkholes but these can all be managed.
 
QUOTE="Krugerrand, post: 4657477, member: 10007"]I did almost buy a 3/4 acre island several years ago with a cute house on it. It wasn’t as much money as you might think. So joking, not joking. I’d totally walk into a bank with duffel bags to withdraw my money.

Here's a 9.5 acre island in the bahamas for 3M and change. Surprisingly affordable, and it's wired for electric, internet, and stuff to the mainland.
Victoria Point Cays - Bahamas , Caribbean - Private Islands for Sale

H'mm - maybe I need an island too. I really liked the Bahamas when I visited previously.[/QUOTE]

It's pretty amazing what can be bought for that sort of money. You could also get a fancy French chateau with vineyards and woodlands for half that price.

In London the same amount of cash gets you a 2 bedroom flat that needs some work.
Check out this property for sale on Rightmove!
 
Construction process is nice. I don't see any hiccups (in contrast to Giga Berlin).
One thing I wonder is why there is a gap (and street) between the buildings on the southern end of the Model Y complex. There are no pillars to extend the "mesh" structure roof. The Model Y complex will look quite different from the Model 3 complex.
screenshot-150-png.536008
I was wondering about that too. My best guess is that they have left the gap so they can move cranes, etc around during the construction phase and will cover it up at the end. They can just weld support tabs on to each side of the gap and use beams to cover it.
 
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I communicated directly with Karen. I guarantee you the mod involved was not a troll. In fact, when I learned who it was I was hugely disappointed. Oh well. And no, I'm not going to disclose that information.

Yeah, no. Another logical answer is that mods have a thankless job and basically at one time or another tick everyone off (including me) to the point where they say WTF and move on, with others, to other forums/places.
 
Here's a 9.5 acre island in the bahamas for 3M and change. Surprisingly affordable, and it's wired for electric, internet, and stuff to the mainland.
Victoria Point Cays - Bahamas , Caribbean - Private Islands for Sale

H'mm - maybe I need an island too. I really liked the Bahamas when I visited previously.

It's pretty amazing what can be bought for that sort of money. You could also get a fancy French chateau with vineyards and woodlands for half that price.

In London the same amount of cash gets you a 2 bedroom flat that needs some work.
Check out this property for sale on Rightmove![/QUOTE]
That flat would be worth more if it came with the freehold...
 
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It's pretty amazing what can be bought for that sort of money. You could also get a fancy French chateau with vineyards and woodlands for half that price.

In London the same amount of cash gets you a 2 bedroom flat that needs some work.
Check out this property for sale on Rightmove!
That flat would be worth more if it came with the freehold...

Weekend Private Island OT:

Who's the person who is saving up for his/her private island again? @Krugerrand was it?

This website has 43 private islands listed for sale, starting @ ~$500k for one in Chili all the way up to ~$150M for one in Thailand.

private island.jpg


With such a wide selection, there should be something to your liking no matter how well TSLA ends up doing ;)

Maybe if TSLA does really well, you can pay someone to create 4 custom private islands for you in the shape of the letters 'T' 'S' 'L' 'A'.
 
Hmmm... so I see that FC and Karen followed my lead in taking a hiatus from this board. I AM a trendsetter in all things...

I hope they both return by this Wednesday though because I want to hear their thoughts on the ER. While I skimmed over a lot of Karen's more verbose posts they were never "unwelcome" per se and I hope no mod actually told her what her current sig claims they did.

I think we're in for a lot of good surprises and I am tremendously bullish on SP for the next couple years. I sold a lot when we dropped below $550, and then bought back in while the price was ~430 with $660 May 15 calls, which I've already flipped.
I am currently holding ONLY Jun 2022 call options with strikes ranging between 920 and 1240. That's it. No stock, no other stocks, just Jun 2022 TSLA calls.

My existential worries come down to how much longer the world government (apparently the NWO is in fact already upon us) will stifle world economies with this borderline hoax which must not be named. They've had the balls to kill small businesses and to mess with people's ways of life for this long while seizing what few rights we have left, I don't see why they would stop now when it's clear that they can get away with anything they like and the media will back them up no matter what. It should be noted though, that whenever I worry about something happening that will negatively affect TSLA stock, it never happens. Only things I don't expect ever hurt the stock significantly.

TSLA is definitely going to continue to do great. I am super excited for the ER and feel a beat coming on.
 
Hmmm... so I see that FC and Karen followed my lead in taking a hiatus from this board. I AM a trendsetter in all things...

I hope they both return by this Wednesday though because I want to hear their thoughts on the ER. While I skimmed over a lot of Karen's more verbose posts they were never "unwelcome" per se and I hope no mod actually told her what her current sig claims they did.

I think we're in for a lot of good surprises and I am tremendously bullish on SP for the next couple years. I sold a lot when we dropped below $550, and then bought back in while the price was ~430 with $660 May 15 calls, which I've already flipped.
I am currently holding ONLY Jun 2022 call options with strikes ranging between 920 and 1240. That's it. No stock, no other stocks, just Jun 2022 TSLA calls.

My existential worries come down to how much longer the world government (apparently the NWO is in fact already upon us) will stifle world economies with this borderline hoax which must not be named. They've had the balls to kill small businesses and to mess with people's ways of life for this long while seizing what few rights we have left, I don't see why they would stop now when it's clear that they can get away with anything they like and the media will back them up no matter what. It should be noted though, that whenever I worry about something happening that will negatively affect TSLA stock, it never happens. Only things I don't expect ever hurt the stock significantly.

TSLA is definitely going to continue to do great. I am super excited for the ER and feel a beat coming on.

Welcome back! How's that new bike treating you?
 
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Welcome back! How's that new bike treating you?
Great! To be quite honest though, even while regularly whipping that thing up to 120mph and higher, I'm always nagged by the knowledge that a Model S beats my acceleration while also not exposing me to easy death at any moment.

Also for those who were taking notes, my court cases were resolved in my favor and I am once again a free citizen with no ankle monitor
 
Hmmm... so I see that FC and Karen followed my lead in taking a hiatus from this board. I AM a trendsetter in all things.......My existential worries come down to how much longer the world government (apparently the NWO is in fact already upon us) will stifle world economies with this borderline hoax which must not be named.
@SpaceCash
I am confused. Please elaborate on what this hoax is.
 
@SpaceCash
I am confused. Please elaborate on what this hoax is.
There’s an entire thread dedicated to the topic of which @SpaceCash speaks. Please, please go there to read all about it.

You will be richly rewarded by reading thousands of posts by knowledgeable, yet humble medical experts (and one or two doctors) who will share their expertise in a respectful, considerate manner.

/s