Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[vikings123]

Uh oh....

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lol. Talks not going well with authorities?

 

[dw4ngg]

Uh oh....

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It’s not untrue..

 

[FrankSG]

So who were the big buyers this morning? Is there a new whale in the pool?

I reckon what happened today is that there were almost no sellers pre-ER, but still some people who wanted to buy in.

More buyers than sellers = upwards SP movement.

 

[Artful Dodger]

After-action Report: Mon, Apr 27, 2020: (Full-Day's Trading)

VWAP: $784.20
Volume: 20,698,242
Traded: $16,231,589,936.24 ($16.23 B)

Closing SP / VWAP: 101.91%
(TSLA closed ABOVE today's Avg SP)​

FINRA Short/Total Volume = 58.1% (51st Percentile rank Shorting)
FINRA Volume / Total NASDAQ Vol = 56.3% (61st Percentile rank FINRA Reporting)

Comment: "♫ Rock is gonna Roll (with all his might) ♫"

 

[adiggs]

Is anyone expecting an earnings beat for Q1? I'm not sure about profit, but the expected loss of $1.22 per share seems a bit high.

Only need a loss of about $216M (180M shares) to get to $1.22/share. With the numbers Tesla is starting to push around, a few hundred million either way is looking like error bar / confidence interval types of numbers to me.

 

[SarahsDad]

Thise two are despicable.

At least MSM figured this out too. Two doctors show how to use numbers to make a bad situation infinitely worse

Reminds me of the joke:

Q. What do you call the person who graduates last in their medical school class?

A. Doctor

 

[UCF3]

Everything hinges on "The new order will include limited easing of specific restrictions for a small number of lower-risk activities."

I think Tesla will argue that they were safely able to reopen the Shanghai factory with many safety regulations introduced to insure the safety of employees. With this experience in China I believe they can make a clear cut case for reopening the Fremont factory.

Tesla opening doesn’t hinge on anything the county says. Auto manufacturing is an essential business according to the federal government and has every right to operate right now. I hope EM shows some leadership and opens the plant and Giga on May 4th

 

[adiggs]

If this is true as the article states, Adam Jonas is insulting everyone's intelligence and he should just admit he's completely clueless about TSLA going forward. A $500 to $1,000 range? Seriously?

Tesla (TSLA): Morgan Stanley earns its millions putting TSLA stock between $500-$1000 - Electrek

That's certainly representative of how the TSLA options market is pricing things.

 

[willow_hiller]

Only need a loss of about $216M (180M shares) to get to $1.22/share. With the numbers Tesla is starting to push around, a few hundred million either way is looking like error bar / confidence interval types of numbers to me.

@FrankSG 's bull case model is estimating -$0.78 GAAP diluted and $0.78 non-GAAP diluted respectively: Near-future quarterly financial projections

And his model might even be conservative compared to Deutsche Bank, who appears to be predicting a GAAP profit for Q1: Tesla Skeptic Deutsche Bank Predicts Positive Q1 2020 Profits For TSLA

"Deutsche Bank’s Emmanuel Rosner expects TSLA to report a first-quarter profit of 5 cents per share. In comparison, Rosner’s previous estimate was a loss of $1.25 per share. The Deutsche Bank analyst raised his estimates for TSLA’s Q1 profit revenue to $5.9 billion. Rosner also increased his gross margin prediction from 21.3% to 22.1%."

I wonder how many of those concensus EPS estimates were not updated after the production and delivery report, because -$1.22 is very close to Deutsche Bank's estimate before the P&D.

 

[Artful Dodger]

If this is true as the article states, Adam Jonas is insulting everyone's intelligence and he should just admit he's completely clueless about TSLA going forward. A $500 to $1,000 range? Seriously?

Tesla (TSLA): Morgan Stanley earns its millions putting TSLA stock between $500-$1000 - Electrek

Oh, nice! Applying the simple (and well established) "AJ correction factor", we get a SP at:

( $969 / $500 ) * $1,000 = 1,938 US$​

(TMC, Jun 5, 2019) I am authorized** to share this proprietary 2-yr SP prediction, created with our in-house heuristic wholistic NN processor: (with 7-degrees of separation from Kevin Bacon)

View attachment 415696

Actually $2,000 sounds ballpark right-ish post-S&P500 inclusion, but certainly before Giga Berlin comes online.

Cheers!

 

[Sudre]

Europe Beats China in Electric Vehicle Sales, Study Shows

Germany, France, the U.K, Italy and Spain collectively registered 79,300 fully electric vehicles between January and March, narrowly edging past the 77,256 in China, the study found. Unit sales more than doubled in Europe in that period, compared with the first quarter of 2019. In China, sales fell by more than half in the quarter because of the lockdown.

Source: Bloomberg

I don't get the random countries piled together to compare to China. Are they simply trying to getting close to China's population size or are they just piling in countries until the EV count was over? Next months I guess it will be Poland, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Germany, France, the U.K, Italy and Spain beat China!

 

[Jovian]

I know this is off-topic, but how sick is this Tesla-PC?!

Marques Brownlee posted this today, it's a mini-Tesla and a gaming PC all in one:

 

[Artful Dodger]

If say Toyota partnered with Tesla then...

You know this ALREADY happened, right? And Toyota let the program die?

2012-14 TOYOTA RAV4 EV

Toyota RAV4 EV - Wikipedia

 

[justobuf]

Tesla opening doesn’t hinge on anything the county says. Auto manufacturing is an essential business according to the federal government and has every right to operate right now. I hope EM shows some leadership and opens the plant and Giga on May 4th

Maybe time to call in the big guns if locals won't allow. Tesla can implement safe ways of reopening. Feels like many local governments and states for that matter are either being too safe or to aggressive without thought for controlled reopening. Everybody get checked on way in and wear PPE.

 

[sparcs]

Detroit auto makers aim to reopen factories May 18

Detroit automakers in Michigan worked out a deal with the Governor for May 18th. Hopefully there is some clear pathway like that for Tesla as well in California.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Uh oh....

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Well, THAT doesn’t sound too good. Fremont shut for another month? Something pissed off Musk.

 

[JRP3]

Stupid or not, preventing people from working and then not paying unemployment benefits are a likely way to cause riots.

If you're in the government and want to force the country to open sooner what better way than delaying unemployment benefits and causing riots? "The cure can't be worse than the disease"

 

[Artful Dodger]

Elon is close or already there in terms of reaching the first 100b milestone for his stock payout, (I am guessing around 1.69m stocks). I wonder if this will affect the gap earning negatively. Anyway, happy for him to get this.

184.39 M shares currently, after ~3 M shares added during the Cap raise in 2020Q1.

Tesla HR already wrote in an email to employees that "Equity Grants will be suspended" during 2020Q2. That means his 1st tranche will wait. Elon is a leader, not a weasel.

 

[Steve m]

If you're in the government and want to force the country to open sooner what better way than delaying unemployment benefits and causing riots? "The cure can't be worse than the disease"

This is California governments incompetence not federal incompetence.

 

[StealthP3D]

Agree that it would very, very badly tarnish the company’s image. Let’s please not sue to override a local government’s coronavirus safety measures.

On Tuesday, you said this about Elon:

he can be good at his job and still be wrong about something.

Do you not think the County government could be wrong about anything? Like whether Tesla is capable of manufacturing safely in the current climate? The courts exist, in more than a small part, as a check on government powers. It's the only avenue to correct a wrong. Challenging the wisdom of a government entity does not automatically tarnish your reputation, it's a right that should be exercised when appropriate. The court exists to determine who is in the right.

I shouldn't have to say this but a county administrator is the final word on exactly nothing. They have all the power in the world, but only until you challenge them.