Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Ellec]

Tell us how you really feel about Tesla.

Please delete this post, doxxing is not cool.

 

[myt-e-s-l-a]

Nope, it means they are about to raise again. With Fremont closed till June they'll burn through billions. Demand could also drop over next 3-4 Q's leading to a cash crunch

Elon knows this shutdown is hurting him and his rant proves it.

"Elon Musk: Coronavirus shelter-in-place is 'fascist' and 'breaking people's freedoms'"

 

[Krugerrand]

I presume @Krugerrand has already purchased a dozen

I’m having T-shirts made as I type this:

‘You can never have too many Tesla HVACs’

 

[larmor]

Elon knows this shutdown is hurting him and his rant proves it.

"Elon Musk: Coronavirus shelter-in-place is 'fascist' and 'breaking people's freedoms'"

Or he’s just reminding everyone it’s hurting all the small business owners, this includes physicians as well as mom and pop businesses all around the US.

 

[Unpilot]

I know who the creepy uncle is...and Mother in law...and all the rest.
I am keeping my social distance X infinity and beyond form those people.

 

[aznt1217]

Hey All,

It's been a while. Here are my thoughts on the ER

Positives
- Model Y Gross Margin profitable right out the gate on the surface is absolutely incredible, but what needs to be appreciated is how quickly Tesla learned from Model 3 to do this. There's some serious process improvement here that needs to be valued
- Model 3 Gross Margin in China has already equaled and soon will surpass Fremont (this is even more crazy)
- China is accelerating and making up for lost ground due to Covid-19, price drop for standard range Model 3 in China to meet subsidy threshold
- As we have cheap oil and an environment where companies are pausing or cutting investments I believe this will pay off for Tesla in the form of multiple cash injections via credit revenue
- Quietly improved Solar production to steady run rate where installations/permitting is the roadblock
- Potential for services revenue just shot up through the roof with subscription based SaaS for Tesla (this can be FSD, Gaming, etc.)
- HVAC!!!! Super cool! If they can do Central Air/Heat they can pair that with Solar permits and get stuff one and done

Neutral
- Elon's rant on shelter in place orders - this can be taken way out of context and spun so negatively, us veterans have been here before but Elon should know enough to mellow the language and put a better spin on it. I'm in the camp that a gradual reopening is needed and that Fremont can operate at 50% capacity with little to no risk of exposure given how large and automated the factory is. Basically Home->Car->Factory->Car->Home would be the set up for workers. Tesla has enough experience in this because it opened up the factory in Shanghai-- just implement the same measures here if possible. Funnily enough, during/after the call local authorities revised the restrictions in California and certain counties.
- I wish they focused more on what improvements they were doing on the factory during the shut down (whether it be 3d Modeling, looking at staffing efficiencies, etc.)

Negatives
- Uncertain timeline on when the factory will reopen (which obviously affects profit guidance and Model y production)
- Semi being pushed back to 2021 (could be being conservative here given COVID), but I wish they added more color as to why-- I'm sure it's due to cell constraint because of anticipated demand but we'll see
- Would have liked to hear more about Roadster but this is just me being a brat

Overall good earnings. Hats off to the Tesla team for executing and I certainly hope the last 2/3 of Q2 will be a robust one for Tesla. I'm counting on the East to compensate for the West in April to make the quarter whole and I hope Tesla is stockpiling Model Y parts so that when the factory comes up and running the only thing determining the output is general assembly. Also looking forward to the next 2 weeks for Jay Leno's segment on the Cybertruck and ATV.

 

[Nocturnal]

Elon knows this shutdown is hurting him and his rant proves it.

"Elon Musk: Coronavirus shelter-in-place is 'fascist' and 'breaking people's freedoms'"

I'd say it's pretty obvious that a shutdown is bad for business. Did it take him saying fascist for that to be apparent? Is there anyone in the nation that thinks the shutdown is good for their business?

I think his word choice was stupid, but this is Elon. He's not the diplomatic type.

 

[myt-e-s-l-a]

Or he’s just reminding everyone it’s hurting all the small business owners, this includes physicians as well as mom and pop businesses all around the US.

BUT, he said in the Tesla conference call, of all the places!

 

[FrankSG]

This is 10x worse than 2018 im afraid. Look at unemployment numbers. Tesla just scraped a profit in Q1 which was largely before Covid struck and mainly due to credits and that was with full demand. It's doubtful they will make another profit until things return to normal which which is probably 2022.

You are expecting a 500% reduction in demand for autos?!? Oh my god! Why didn't anyone warn me of this

If only I had designed and launched a vehicle that no one on Earth wanted, I'd now have demand of -7.5B - 5 * -7.5B = 30B for it!!!

As a thank you, I will now ignore you in the hope that it will also hide my posts from you, so you won't have to suffer from my stupid uninformed opinion anymore.

 

[EinSV]

Semi being pushed back to 2021 (could be being conservative here given COVID), but I wish they added more color as to why-- I'm sure it's due to cell constraint because of anticipated demand but we'll see

Speculative but one reason for pushing the Semi to 2021 may be that they plan to produce it at the new GF (in Texas or wherever).

 

[jbcarioca]

I'm not sure if the credits will increase if FCA sells less. That would be true if FCA sells less EVs, but they were hardly selling any up to now. If they sell less ICEs, which will certainly be the case in Q2, they will have less need for compensation through Tesla's EVs. Or is there a flaw in my reasoning?

I am not certain because we have poor visibility, but if you're incorrect it is because FCA had plans to sell more BEV's this year than they will because their new model introduction plans have been hampered. The new 500e and a handful of others were thought to be significant contributors this year but are being delayed in the best case by losing a couple quarters. Thinking back to when they made the deal, FCA thought they could ramp up BEV's quickly. They also had hopes of symbiotic deals such as PSA, which optimistically was imagined to be a major benefit.

All of that colored the deal, realistic or not. FCA had no desire to pay Tesla, after all.

If any of that is true FCA will want more credits even when their ICE sales are lower than expected.

 

[Krugerrand]

Nope, it means they are about to raise again. With Fremont closed till June they'll burn through billions. Demand could also drop over next 3-4 Q's leading to a cash crunch

You’re several hours late, nonetheless, thank you for starting us off!

 

[LJS22]

LOLOL CCN really trying to cater to the low information crowd.

View attachment 537424

New York Times has the same headline haha

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Its Apr 30th 2020, there's a global pandemic decimating the economy, and TSLA Jan2022 $1k calls are $220. If someone had told you that 6 months ago, you'd lock them up and throw away the key.

 

[StealthP3D]

Tesla will be less than $100 by summer. The obvious move is to liquidate now and buy back when things look better.

Boy, that didn't age well, did it. Actually, it didn't come across as credible when it was written.

Don't let this obvious troll disrupt all the smart/good people from doing what they do here!

 

[Krugerrand]

@Krugerrand

Looks like it might be time to sell my ROKU. Seems I’ll be adding a fair bit of TSLA over the next couple of months. Already 3 shares required and it hasn’t been 24 hrs.

Edit: P.S. Why you helping me get richer? This doesn’t bode well for you.

 

[myt-e-s-l-a]

I'd say it's pretty obvious that a shutdown is bad for business. Did it take him saying fascist for that to be apparent? Is there anyone in the nation that thinks the shutdown is good for their business?

I think his word choice was stupid, but this is Elon. He's not the diplomatic type.

If its obvious, he did not need to say it.

 

[jbcarioca]

The longer the factory is shut the more cash that's burned, they can make cutbacks but they still need to pay suppliers for all the parts they've used. Accounts payable is $4 billion and $2 billion is tied up in China so even if they burn $1 billion they are very close to the line. Remember companies don't just wait to cash goes to $0 to raise they need to have a decent cushion which is why I think they raise within weeks.

Please either think or stop! You cannot possibly be so naive to believe the stuff you're spouting. Some pessimism can be justified but skipping that facts cannot.

 

[Nocturnal]

Speculative but one reason for pushing the Semi to 2021 may be that they plan to produce it at the new GF (in Texas or wherever).

I assume it was because battery production isn't there yet but that's possible.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Please either think or stop! You cannot possibly be so naive to believe the stuff you're spouting. Some pessimism can be justified but skipping that facts cannot.

How can you not tell this is a troll?