Here's a new blog post for anybody who's bored this weekend:
My TSLA Investment Strategy
This blog contains:
- A deep dive on how to construct an investment strategy
- My investment strategy
- Detailed predictions for Tesla and TSLA for the next 2.5 years
- A deep dive into options trading
Interesting, certainly seems you give a lot more thought to investments than many. I perused everything on your blog, love your price targets, rarely do I meet someone more bullish than I! I have a couple questions:
1. How much do you own? Feel free to PM, I'll keep it confidential, and share as well. Is your future secure without the funds? My fixed sources of income are such that I could lose everything in options and stocks and still maintain current lifestyle.
2. You might have shared this in the lengthy blog post, but how do you think of different business segments, chance of success in each, and in a way also you confidence in the numbers? I recall that humans overestimate their ability to guess things like this, and also can have their estimates be influenced. (
Daniel Kahneman - Wikipedia). Are there things that have influenced you?
3. My understanding of math is that to arrive at a maximum bullish case for TSLA, one needs to take the change of success of each of the business segments working out and MULTIPLY each probability together. For example, if the max bull case of Y sales has 50% chance of success and max bull case of cybertruck has a 33% chance of success, one needs to multiply 1/2 and 1/3 to see the chance of max bull case of both things happening is really only 1/6, or about 17% chance. Adding in different business segments, of which there are many, can only decrease the chance of the entire thing coming out well. Discussion: TSLA has executed well historically and the times might well be a changing, but I think such things ought be considered. Is my understanding of the math wrong?
Lottery mathematics - Wikipedia I think that this might cover some of it, but it is kind of like betting on black or red, and if one needs to hit red 6 times in a row, the chance of doing this (random events, not a business run well) is very small. I try and temper my analysis by such things.
4. Do you ever allow your mind to analyze the other side of the argument? Who is selling the stock and options to you and why? What would cause you to sell?
5. How do you account for current value based upon future potential? I've always discounted 20% per year but have no good way of doing this.
If you put out such a long post, and cross post it here, perhaps some flavor as to your position in life would help. Age, income, stability, etc. Do you ever worry that you might unduly influence others that could end up losing money?
I only like ITM options as they have some inherent value to them. I've paid 20% premium above that value to buy LEAPS.
Thanks