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That can't be right. 12 million in one month? Or is it per year June 19-May 20?

Here's what a quick google says
How many registered motor vehicles are there in the U.S.?
Some 273.6 million vehicles were registered here in 2018. The figures include passenger cars, motorcycles, trucks, buses, and other vehicles. The number of cars sold in the U.S. per year stood at 6.3 million in 2016.


  • Toyota, Honda and Hyundai were among the automakers Tuesday to report double-digit sales losses for last month compared to a year earlier.
  • The pace of sales picked up in May, averaging 12.17 million vehicles on an annualized basis, according to Autodata.
  • Auto research firms expected new vehicle sales to be slightly less than 1.1 million vehicles in May, down about 32% to 33% compared with May 2019.
 
Citadel Securities - they recently bought 4.3% stake and it's my pet theory that they've been gaming the price the last few weeks to maximise their option plays.

I believe this is most likely purely for delta hedging.

Citadel did not own a single TSLA share as of 31/3/2020, according to their 13F:

SEC FORM 13-F - Citadel Securities - Effective Date 31/3/2020

However, they did own 7.3M shares worth of call options, and 5.9M shares with of put options, and a handful of TSLA Bonds.

Even if it's not purely for delta hedging, it's likely a short term play, because they do not have a history of building and holding onto a large TSLA stake:

citadel.jpg


Source: Fintel.io
 
After-action Report: Tue, Jun 02, 2020: (Full-Day's Trading)

VWAP: $889.33
Volume: 13,587,623
Traded: $12,083,890,649.17 ($12.03 B)

Closing SP / VWAP: 99.11%
(TSLA closed BELOW today's Avg SP)​

FINRA Short/Total Volume = 41.6% (45th Percentile rank Shorting)
FINRA Volume / Total NASDAQ Vol = 54.5% (55th Percentile rank FINRA Reporting)
FINRA Short Exempt Volume was 1.28% of Short Volume (51st Percentile rank).

Comment: "TSLA returns to the Upper-BB"

TSLA - SUMMARY TABLE - 2020-06-02.png


* A trade occurred at 19:44 hrs for $313.50 skewing the Intraday Chart for the After-hrs
 
The question for US would be how much margin will Tesla accept before reducing prices and increasing market share. A different part of the calculus.

If Tesla continues to innovate, they won't need to decrease margins to increase market share. They will just need to build more cars more efficiently than anyone else. Currently, they are still competing with ICE cars (that still have a small built-in cost advantage over long-range EV's) but as everything EV continues on the cost decline, Tesla will have a built-in cost advantage over their ICE competitors and will be able to maintain the lead they currently enjoy over their EV competitors. Look at the I-Pace and e-Tron, not only are Tesla's superior, but Audi and Jaguar need to discount prices into money-losing territory just to move the relatively small volumes they make. Legacy automakers are not as lean and depend too heavily on outsourcing components they should be making themselves. Tesla has a corporate structure and mindset that inherently allows them to innovate faster in their relentless pursuit to make the cars fasterm better, and cheaper.

You can argue the competition will get better with time and I would agree - they have to get significantly better or they will cease to exist. Tesla will be able to sell all they can make at healthy margins, without discounting. It's like the old joke, "How do you outrun a bear?". You don't have to outrun the bear, you just have run faster than your partner. In other words, Tesla won't need to discount themselves into low margins because they will maintain a better cost structure and pace of innovation vs. their competitors. If you can't see why this is or doubt it will continue, I urge you to NOT invest in TSLA.
 
Oh the path over the next 5 years for at least 30-40% annual growth is very clear. 30-40% growth would give Tesla a very high P/E. I think over the next 12 months, the growth is going to be 100% on a quarterly run rate. From Q2 2021 to Q2 2022, I could see the growth rate still being 60-70% based on what we know of the roadmap for Tesla's production. After that, it becomes more unclear because of many variables, all to the upside. So I think baseline 30-40% growth in Year 3, 4, and 5. The not so visible part are things like Tesla Energy growth and FSD/Robotaxi. Those have the potential to take Year 3,4, and 5 growth from 30-40% to anywhere from 50% to 100%.

I very much agree with @StarFoxisDown! 's sentiment.

Tesla already has 172.5k quarterly production capacity installed today in the form of:
  • 22.5k S+X
  • 100k Fremont 3+Y
  • 50k MiC 3
Once Fremont production recovers from COVID-19, which is perhaps as soon as Q3, but most likely going to be Q4, Tesla will deliver close to 200k vehicles in a single quarter. The resulting financials, margins, revenues, and profit will be much higher than what the market is currently expecting.

Here are the models from my recent blog post, My TSLA Investment Strategy:

Bear
Summary Bear.jpg


Bull
Summary Bull.jpg


Compare these numbers to the Wall Street and Estimize numbers:

Revenue
Estimize Rev.jpg

Non-GAAP EPS
Estimize EPS.jpg


The purple line is the average of my numbers, but even my bear numbers are higher than what the most optimistic Wall Street analyst is expecting, let alone the average Wall Street analyst.

You can also see that I'm not the only one who is expecting the next few quarters to be above expectation. Estimize is also predicting significantly higher numbers than Wall Street for the next four quarters.

I think $1,200 to $1,500 in 12 months from now is quite a conservative guess, especially with S&P 500 inclusion on track to happen between now and then, and I think $2,000+ is very realistic.

Another data point is AMZN's SP. Amazon's EPS in Q1'20 was $5,09, which is pretty much exactly my bear case for Tesla for Q4'20. Amazon has achieved higher EPS in the past ($6.59 in Q4'20 and $7.24 in Q1'19 to name a few), but nonetheless AMZN's SP is around $2,500 with a soon to be very similar EPS as Tesla.

Small cave-at to all of this are the recent price reductions. My models are from before those, so that could lead to slightly lower margins, etc.
 
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After some discussion and analysis, we concluded that the $969 intraday SP spike was caused by MMs delta hedging. See the number of open Call Options for an idea of where the MMs are forced to move the price.

Paging @FrankSG

I don't have much to add here. I described some of the things that caused the $969 spike in this blog post:

The Mechanisms That Fueled TSLA's Meteoric Q1'20 Rise

But I have no doubt that a lot of short term traders also heavily influenced that spike to $969, and I've also seen the (conspiracy) theory float around that because the MMs were unable to delta hedge sufficiently on that day, they had to orchestrate the huge bear attack to save themselves.
 
In China it was under roof by now

Nobody is anticipating construction in Germany to match the pace in China. It's just not going to happen. But steady progress will bring this new production capacity on-line by the beginning of next year (perhaps a bit earlier) and you're gonna like what it does to the capabilities of Tesla as an auto manufacturing powerhouse.
 
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More garbage from BI. :rolleyes:

After Elon Musk called stay-at-home orders 'fascist', a worker in a re-opened Tesla factory reportedly tests positive for COVID-19

A worker in Tesla's Buffalo, New York, factory has tested positive for COVID-19, The Verge reported.

Tesla factories nationwide re-opened in May, with the Buffalo factory opening in May 19.

CEO Elon Musk previously sent Tesla workers in California to work in defiance of the state's stay-at-home orders.

A worker at a Tesla factory in Buffalo, New York, has tested positive for the disease caused by the coronavirus, The Verge reported.

The employee is the fourth known Tesla worker to test positive for COVID-19. CEO Elon Musk reopened Tesla factories nationwide in May, and this is the first Tesla employee at these plants to report that they have become sick.

The Buffalo factory is operated by SolarCity, Tesla's solar energy subsidiary. Typically, the factory employs around 1,500, but nearly 1,000 have been furloughed since the beginning of the virus shutdown, Buffalo Business First reported.

A Tesla spokesperson did not respond to Business Insider's request for comment on Buffalo case, or share if they intended shutter the factory again.

CEO Elon Musk has fought amid the virus shutdowns for his company's factories to continuing producing goods. Critics said that this would put workers at risk, and that Tesla should not re-open factories in defiance of state law. Musk called the lockdown orders "fascist" in a quarterly earnings call with investors on April 29.

Of course, such lockdown orders, while intended to save American lives amid the historic pandemic, prevents Musk's companies from building rockets, spaceships, cars, and solar panels, as Business Insider previously reported.

Musk previously sent Tesla workers in California to work in defiance of the state's stay-at-home orders. Some workers told Business Insider that if they refused to go for health or legal reasons that they feared would be fired.
 
I'm not a big fan of Troy's because I feel like he relies on his own data which is user input data and then extrapolates from there. He doesn't seem to want to acknowledge that as Tesla sells more vehicles, his user input data becomes less and less relevant. This has been shown/proven over the past few quarters because his user data is always very low each quarter until the final week or two where he then updates the numbers. But at least he could cite his own data.

Now I'm seeing him posting things like this on twitter: https://twitter.com/TroyTeslike/status/1267526882347671554

I have not heard anywhere that the tent GA is currently making all Model Y's in Fremont and that the main Model Y production line is not active yet. Has anyone else heard anything like this?

I'm also not a fan of using user survey to then extrapolate Model Y orders. Again, his user data and surveys become less and less accurate as Tesla's grows production/deliveries. FYI Troy's saying there's only 18,000 Model Y orders for the US.

Edit: Actually he's saying there's only 12,000 Model Y US orders

Edit 2: Also, if you want some entertainment, ValueAnalyst has apparently turned from Tesla Bull to Bear haha. He's really throwing a fit over battery day not happening yet.
 
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More garbage from BI. :rolleyes:

After Elon Musk called stay-at-home orders 'fascist', a worker in a re-opened Tesla factory reportedly tests positive for COVID-19

A worker in Tesla's Buffalo, New York, factory has tested positive for COVID-19, The Verge reported.

Tesla factories nationwide re-opened in May, with the Buffalo factory opening in May 19.

CEO Elon Musk previously sent Tesla workers in California to work in defiance of the state's stay-at-home orders.

A worker at a Tesla factory in Buffalo, New York, has tested positive for the disease caused by the coronavirus, The Verge reported.

The employee is the fourth known Tesla worker to test positive for COVID-19. CEO Elon Musk reopened Tesla factories nationwide in May, and this is the first Tesla employee at these plants to report that they have become sick.

The Buffalo factory is operated by SolarCity, Tesla's solar energy subsidiary. Typically, the factory employs around 1,500, but nearly 1,000 have been furloughed since the beginning of the virus shutdown, Buffalo Business First reported.

A Tesla spokesperson did not respond to Business Insider's request for comment on Buffalo case, or share if they intended shutter the factory again.

CEO Elon Musk has fought amid the virus shutdowns for his company's factories to continuing producing goods. Critics said that this would put workers at risk, and that Tesla should not re-open factories in defiance of state law. Musk called the lockdown orders "fascist" in a quarterly earnings call with investors on April 29.

Of course, such lockdown orders, while intended to save American lives amid the historic pandemic, prevents Musk's companies from building rockets, spaceships, cars, and solar panels, as Business Insider previously reported.

Musk previously sent Tesla workers in California to work in defiance of the state's stay-at-home orders. Some workers told Business Insider that if they refused to go for health or legal reasons that they feared would be fired.
One infection does not have any significance in relation to Giga 2. Whether or not (and how many) others in the factory are infected is the key. If no one else is infected then Tesla's COVID policies are working as planned. Nothing to see here.
 
One infection does not have any significance in relation to Giga 2. Whether or not (and how many) others in the factory are infected is the key. If no one else is infected then Tesla's COVID policies are working as planned. Nothing to see here.

Yup this is a big nothingburger. Even if several others are infected as well, it shouldn’t matter. We’ve had 19 Covid cases where I work and ALL have recovered from minor symptoms and are back at work now. The market should shrug this off.
 
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I'm not a big fan of Troy's because I feel like he relies on his own data which is user input data and then extrapolates from there. He doesn't seem to want to acknowledge that as Tesla sells more vehicles, his user input data becomes less and less relevant. This has been shown/proven over the past few quarters because his user data is always very low each quarter until the final week or two where he then updates the numbers. But at least he could cite his own data.

Now I'm seeing him posting things like this on twitter: https://twitter.com/TroyTeslike/status/1267526882347671554

I have not heard anywhere that the tent GA is currently making all Model Y's in Fremont and that the main Model Y production line is not active yet. Has anyone else heard anything like this?

I'm also not a fan of using user survey to then extrapolate Model Y orders. Again, his user data and surveys become less and less accurate as Tesla's grows production/deliveries. FYI Troy's saying there's only 18,000 Model Y orders for the US.

Edit: Actually he's saying there's only 12,000 Model Y US orders

Edit 2: Also, if you want some entertainment, ValueAnalyst has apparently turned from Tesla Bull to Bear haha. He's really throwing a fit over battery day not happening yet.
Worker returned on the 19th and the same week (no later than the 22nd) tested positive. This was leaked by a Panasonic employee, there is no other confirmation. Probably returned to work with the virus.
 
I'm not a big fan of Troy's because I feel like he relies on his own data which is user input data and then extrapolates from there. He doesn't seem to want to acknowledge that as Tesla sells more vehicles, his user input data becomes less and less relevant. This has been shown/proven over the past few quarters because his user data is always very low each quarter until the final week or two where he then updates the numbers. But at least he could cite his own data.

Now I'm seeing him posting things like this on twitter: https://twitter.com/TroyTeslike/status/1267526882347671554

I have not heard anywhere that the tent GA is currently making all Model Y's in Fremont and that the main Model Y production line is not active yet. Has anyone else heard anything like this?

I'm also not a fan of using user survey to then extrapolate Model Y orders. Again, his user data and surveys become less and less accurate as Tesla's grows production/deliveries. FYI Troy's saying there's only 18,000 Model Y orders for the US.

Edit: Actually he's saying there's only 12,000 Model Y US orders

Edit 2: Also, if you want some entertainment, ValueAnalyst has apparently turned from Tesla Bull to Bear haha. He's really throwing a fit over battery day not happening yet.

All we appear to know about Model Y is VINs in the 11K range produced in May are being delivered around now..

It is a reasonable guess that there is some limitation on Model Y production or combined Model 3/Y production at Fremont...
That limit could be:-
  • Casting
  • Model Y Body Shop
  • Paint
  • Battery Packs
  • Model Y GA
This is why the new factory is needed for Model Y production..

Model 3 production was a different kind of ramp a lot of investment in Fremont and GF1 was directed to volume production of Model 3 and the ramp had to be in sync and more than 5K per week.

For Model Y if there is some bottleneck which limits production until a new factory can be built, that might set the targets in other areas. I doubt it is battery packs, they would be happy to make Model Y instead of Model 3... same for paint...

I've long been of the opinion that we don't understand the run rate of casting, and that casting at GF Shanghai may be more advanced than casting at Fremont/Lathrop, Odiously a new factory would get the latest specially built casting... However my speculation is no better than Troy's, there is a lot we don't know...
 
Look at the I-Pace and e-Tron, not only are Tesla's superior, but Audi and Jaguar need to discount prices into money-losing territory just to move the relatively small volumes they make.

While this is true for IPace it is not true for Etron.

Audi dealers are offering normal ~5% discounts on new Etrons. If you finance through them, so they can make up the difference. At least here in the USA.
 
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Nobody is anticipating construction in Germany to match the pace in China. It's just not going to happen. But steady progress will bring this new production capacity on-line by the beginning of next year (perhaps a bit earlier) and you're gonna like what it does to the capabilities of Tesla as an auto manufacturing powerhouse.

I was joking actually. But I will go on records as saying that I have serious doubts of any meaningful production from this plant until q2 next year... And likely late q2.
 
All we appear to know about Model Y is VINs in the 11K range produced in May are being delivered around now..

It is a reasonable guess that there is some limitation on Model Y production or combined Model 3/Y production at Fremont...
That limit could be:-
  • Casting
  • Model Y Body Shop
  • Paint
  • Battery Packs
  • Model Y GA
This is why the new factory is needed for Model Y production..

Model 3 production was a different kind of ramp a lot of investment in Fremont and GF1 was directed to volume production of Model 3 and the ramp had to be in sync and more than 5K per week.

For Model Y if there is some bottleneck which limits production until a new factory can be built, that might set the targets in other areas. I doubt it is battery packs, they would be happy to make Model Y instead of Model 3... same for paint...

I've long been of the opinion that we don't understand the run rate of casting, and that casting at GF Shanghai may be more advanced than casting at Fremont/Lathrop, Odiously a new factory would get the latest specially built casting... However my speculation is no better than Troy's, there is a lot we don't know...

Oh I'm not questioning what Fremont's current production rates is for Model Y or any production constraints they might encounter as they ramp. My issue is that Troy quite clearly states that all Model Y production is being done in the GA4 tent and that the actual Model Y production line is not running yet and won't be running until July. I have seen no evidence of this and have not heard this on any of the sites and twitter accounts that I follow for Tesla related news. Troy offers no support for this with any evidence or even a source. So I'm left wondering why then would you go on twitter and start making statements like that

Besides my other issues with Troy's estimate on Model Y orders and his quarterly sales estimates
 
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