I'm not trying to be negative, just wondering what the total weekly Model Y production is, and if there is some limit that is hard to exceed at Fremont. There is no issue once the next US factory is up and running...
I didn’t find your post to be negative. In fact, 11k MY produced to date would sound very much the opposite to me. (Furthermore, I certainly would appreciate more “negative posts in general; little value is found in an echo chamber of optimism...)
I thought your question was re: current MY production, not potential production capacity at Fremont by end of year.
Given the insane demand for the MY, I would say Tesla is putting in every effort to ramp production as rapidly as possible. I believe unavailability outside of North America is to avoid crushing M3 sales, specifically in Europe. (I think demand for MIC M3 would continue to be strong well but obviously much less if the Y were available there).
Tesla has certainly made it difficult to tease out 3/Y prod/deliveries by always lumping them together. This is obviously intentional and I assume is done to hide any production issues with ramping Y and/or scaling back M3 prod/converting lines to MY if/when they see M3 installed capacity in excess of demand.
I’ve never thought about it until your post, but perhaps you’re right, something at Fremont could be hampering the ramp up of MY production. In general, the facility is much less efficient than Shanghai (and all future plants) as evidenced by the struggle Tesla had scaling M3 production vs the relatively smooth ramp in China. Of course you could say they learned from Fremont and applied those improvements to the Shanghai build, but perhaps it’s difficult to expand at Fremont by its very nature. This would support the major push Tesla has to build a new factory/factories. Cybertruck certainly won’t be the only model needing a factory. More capacity for MY production is in the works.
I saw Rob's video, I think he is mostly right, especially for Q2/Q3.
My question is more whether peak Model Y production is 2K per week, or 4K per week at Fremont? The optimistic view is it was 2K, but it may be 4K by Q4.
We don't have Model Y VIN tracking, drones flying over Fremont, or much additional information.
They are also not planning to export Model Y to Europe or China as far as we know, so there might not be an urgent need for higher production volumes.