Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[strago13]

I'm looking for these too - the June 2022's are bit too expensive for my liking... We need some strikes above $2k...

I am also very curious about these and a cursory internet search did not turn up anything. If anyone finds anything please let me know as well.

 

[troym]

I'm not trying to be negative, just wondering what the total weekly Model Y production is, and if there is some limit that is hard to exceed at Fremont. There is no issue once the next US factory is up and running...

I didn’t find your post to be negative. In fact, 11k MY produced to date would sound very much the opposite to me. (Furthermore, I certainly would appreciate more “negative posts in general; little value is found in an echo chamber of optimism...)

I thought your question was re: current MY production, not potential production capacity at Fremont by end of year.

Given the insane demand for the MY, I would say Tesla is putting in every effort to ramp production as rapidly as possible. I believe unavailability outside of North America is to avoid crushing M3 sales, specifically in Europe. (I think demand for MIC M3 would continue to be strong well but obviously much less if the Y were available there).

Tesla has certainly made it difficult to tease out 3/Y prod/deliveries by always lumping them together. This is obviously intentional and I assume is done to hide any production issues with ramping Y and/or scaling back M3 prod/converting lines to MY if/when they see M3 installed capacity in excess of demand.

I’ve never thought about it until your post, but perhaps you’re right, something at Fremont could be hampering the ramp up of MY production. In general, the facility is much less efficient than Shanghai (and all future plants) as evidenced by the struggle Tesla had scaling M3 production vs the relatively smooth ramp in China. Of course you could say they learned from Fremont and applied those improvements to the Shanghai build, but perhaps it’s difficult to expand at Fremont by its very nature. This would support the major push Tesla has to build a new factory/factories. Cybertruck certainly won’t be the only model needing a factory. More capacity for MY production is in the works.

I saw Rob's video, I think he is mostly right, especially for Q2/Q3.

My question is more whether peak Model Y production is 2K per week, or 4K per week at Fremont? The optimistic view is it was 2K, but it may be 4K by Q4.

We don't have Model Y VIN tracking, drones flying over Fremont, or much additional information.

They are also not planning to export Model Y to Europe or China as far as we know, so there might not be an urgent need for higher production volumes.

 

[elasalle]

Does anyone remember when the januari 2023 LEAPs should become available? I remember that someone posted the rules for new option releases, but I can’t find that back.
These may be good options to take advantage of the upcoming S&P500 inclusion and ramp of the Europe and China gigafactories, as well as battery announcements, without being tied to a short time horizon. Each of the above events should have completed somewhere in the next 2.5 years.

IIRC, it's sometime close to Nov. Last year happened a bit earlier I think ...

 

[dww12]

Is there a reason to ignore the gap between 835 and 855?

 

[FrankSG]

Does anyone remember when the januari 2023 LEAPs should become available? I remember that someone posted the rules for new option releases, but I can’t find that back.
These may be good options to take advantage of the upcoming S&P500 inclusion and ramp of the Europe and China gigafactories, as well as battery announcements, without being tied to a short time horizon. Each of the above events should have completed somewhere in the next 2.5 years.

Jan'22 came out mid-September of 2019, so I assume Jan'23 will come out mid-September of this year.

Jun'22 should also capture all those events though.

I'm looking for these too - the June 2022's are bit too expensive for my liking... We need some strikes above $2k...

Agree that the Jun'22s are quite highly priced atm.

Don't expect any strikes above $2k to just pop up out of nowhere though, I believe strikes only go up to about 2x the actual SP. So we should see these as soon as TSLA goes over $1,000. This also means that they will be quite expensive of course, because SP will be higher, unless it goes over $1,000 first, and then drops back down.

The reason I believe this by the way, is because when I bought my first Jun'22s, SP was right around $500, and the highest strike price available was $990 (so I bought those). Not until TSLA shot up over $500 were higher strikes released.

Also, when I bought my first Jan'22 $400s, $450 was the highest strike available and SP was in the low $200s. I wanted to buy some $600s as well at the time, but did not see these available until some time after Q3'19 ER, when the SP had shot up to $300.

 

[FrankSG]

This is really interesting and demonstrates the high % holding concentrated in a few committed shareholders. Thanks for providing.
Regarding the post with your quarterly projections (also very useful), I note your caveat regarding price reductions. For what it's worth I contacted Tesla UK this morning to ask whether the same reductions will be applied to the UK. They said they are unaware of any plans to reduce prices. I assume the same applies to other non-US markets, so the reductions in margins seem to be limited to the USA (apart from China).

You're welcome!

If I'm not mistaken, prices were reduced in some non-China/US markets, but indeed stayed the same in a number of others such as UK and NZ.

 

[Tslynk67]

Jan'22 came out mid-September of 2019, so I assume Jan'23 will come out mid-September of this year.

Jun'22 should also capture all those events though.



Agree that the Jun'22s are quite highly priced atm.

Don't expect any strikes above $2k to just pop up out of nowhere though, I believe strikes only go up to about 2x the actual SP. So we should see these as soon as TSLA goes over $1,000. This also means that they will be quite expensive of course, because SP will be higher, unless it goes over $1,000 first, and then drops.

The reason I believe this by the way, is because when I bought my first Jun'22s, SP was right around $500, and the highest strike price available was $990 (so I bought those). Not until TSLA shot up over $500 were higher strikes released.

Yeah, I bought 10x June 2022 $1400's in the C19 dip and sold them two weeks later for 3x the price. That's when to buy calls...

 

[FrankSG]

Yeah, I bought 10x June 2022 $1400's in the C19 dip and sold them two weeks later for 3x the price. That's when to buy calls...

I might've bought those off of you in early-April Still holding, and planning to hold for another 12-18 months most likely.

 

[StealthP3D]

SpaceX has another launch planned tomorrow for 60 more Starlink satellites:
SpaceX proceeding toward eighth launch of Starlink satellites from Cape Canaveral

My favorite quote from the article:

"The thing that really stood out to both of us – and we mentioned it as soon as we docked – is that we didn't even feel the docking," mission commander Hurley said during a news conference Monday. "It was just so smooth, and then we were docked. In shuttle, you felt a little bit of a jolt."

"That really, really surprised me," he said.

The docking was done autonomously with human oversight. Just like Tesla AP!

 

[UncaNed]

Does anyone remember when the januari 2023 LEAPs should become available? I remember that someone posted the rules for new option releases, but I can’t find that back.
These may be good options to take advantage of the upcoming S&P500 inclusion and ramp of the Europe and China gigafactories, as well as battery announcements, without being tied to a short time horizon. Each of the above events should have completed somewhere in the next 2.5 years.

Wouldn't September 2022 LEAPs appear before January 2023s?

 

[geneclean55]

Elon's plane landed in London today

 

[PlaidCPA]

Jan'22 came out mid-September of 2019, so I assume Jan'23 will come out mid-September of this year.

Jun'22 should also capture all those events though.



Agree that the Jun'22s are quite highly priced atm.

Don't expect any strikes above $2k to just pop up out of nowhere though, I believe strikes only go up to about 2x the actual SP. So we should see these as soon as TSLA goes over $1,000. This also means that they will be quite expensive of course, because SP will be higher, unless it goes over $1,000 first, and then drops back down.

The reason I believe this by the way, is because when I bought my first Jun'22s, SP was right around $500, and the highest strike price available was $990 (so I bought those). Not until TSLA shot up over $500 were higher strikes released.

Also, when I bought my first Jan'22 $400s, $450 was the highest strike available and SP was in the low $200s. I wanted to buy some $600s as well at the time, but did not see these available until some time after Q3'19 ER, when the SP had shot up to $300.

You can request new strike prices from CBOE at any time.

 

[Unpilot]

we need some VOLUME!

 

[NicoV]

Wouldn't September 2022 LEAPs appear before January 2023s?

Yes, but the january LEAP typically have higher volume/less spread.

 

[FrankSG]

You can request new strike prices from CBOE at any time.

Wish I could request and load up on some Jun'30 $10,000 calls.

But can we really? Could someone request Jun'22 $5,000 call options for example if he wanted to?

 

[PlaidCPA]

Wish I could request and load up on some Jun'30 $10,000 calls.

But can we really? Could someone request Jun'22 $5,000 call options for example if he wanted to?

Yes, although they cant just issue a specific strike price. They will have to do 4750, 4800... 5000 so its to their discretion how high they allow

 

[JusRelax]

NIO is up another 12% today.. that makes it up ~35% since Friday.

Is this basically solely on heightened political turmoil between US and China, so the idea is that Nio may be able to take away some Tesla sales in China?

EDIT: overall since Friday it's up closer to 40% now.

 

[MP3Mike]

Almost 153 million shares are in the hands of the 58 biggest shareholders. That leaves about 27 million for the rest, which is not much. I would have think that there are least a million private investors holding between 1 and 10,000 shares. Even if the average is 25 shares that is already 25 million shares. Many of those investors are hodl’ers. Where do those 10-15 millions shares traded every day come from? Are those trading shares that are being held for just a few hours and recycled several times a day?

Don't forget about the ~11 million shares that have been "created" by the shorts.

 

[phantasms]

NIO is up another 12% today.. that makes it up ~35% since Friday.

Is this basically solely on heightened political turmoil between US and China, so the idea is that Nio may be able to take away some Tesla sales in China?

EDIT: overall since Friday it's up closer to 40% now.

I'm long NIO and this may have something to do with it. People that still think swapping batteries is the way of the future. :sigh:

Nio might have figured out battery swap for electric cars as it completes 500,000 swaps - Electrek

 

[Tslynk67]

I might've bought those off of you in early-April Still holding, and planning to hold for another 12-18 months most likely.

Good for you! I decided to sell so as to have some cash in the account as I was expecting a further C19 dip. Which never happened (and I still don't understand why...)