Considerable money spent at the end to keep it below $940 - and good for me, I'll have 100 shiny new shares to write covered calls 
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Pushing below $917 would also weaken the idea of that price (former resistance) being a support.
CyberDutchie
Active Member
Still a good week overall. $1000 breached for the first time means that level is not gonna be a big obstacle anymore.
LN1_Casey
Draco dormiens nunquam titillandus
Yes, but that is a long term view. Sales of cars tend to be driven by short term effects. Short term all auto sales are down. Even with the recent rise in oil prices over the last month or so, it's still far below the prices at the start of the year.
Yeah, but it will be another couple of years before that kicks in really. BEVs are less than 2% of car sales in the US and will increase fairly slowly in quantity even if more rapidly in percentage. With the CV issues it is hard to see forward. In any event it will likely be 2023 or later when EV sales have significant impact in gasoline usage. The next three years ahead are full of minefields for each and every auto maker.
Time is running out for the anti-Tesla FUDsters.
1) Fearsome competition from Ford is either canceled (electric Lincoln SUV) or delayed to two years (electric F-150), by which time Cybertruck will have chomped Ford's lunch and maybe starved them to death.
2) The Tesla-killer from VW (ID.3) will be released with half its software, a debacle so bad that the CEO has been ousted upward.
3) Tesla is pulling levers to ensure Q2 profitability and S&P-500 inclusion soon.
4) "Mind-blowing" battery news is coming soon.
5) Tesla Semi is coming soon.
6) Factories are leaping up, Model Y is dropping jaws, FSD is progressing, etc. etc.
7) New data from the CDC indicates Elon was right and the Covid case-fatality rate is similar to the flu, which makes more factory shutdowns unlikely.
https://physiciansforinformedconsen...IC-COVID-19-Disease-Information-Statement.pdf
8) Downgrades from both Goldman and Jonas dipped TSLA only 4%, even on a weak macro day. A Goldman downgrade alone used to drop the stock 20%, but they have cried wolf too many times.
Bye bye triple-digit TSLA. You will soon be gone for good.
1) Fearsome competition from Ford is either canceled (electric Lincoln SUV) or delayed to two years (electric F-150), by which time Cybertruck will have chomped Ford's lunch and maybe starved them to death.
2) The Tesla-killer from VW (ID.3) will be released with half its software, a debacle so bad that the CEO has been ousted upward.
3) Tesla is pulling levers to ensure Q2 profitability and S&P-500 inclusion soon.
4) "Mind-blowing" battery news is coming soon.
5) Tesla Semi is coming soon.
6) Factories are leaping up, Model Y is dropping jaws, FSD is progressing, etc. etc.
7) New data from the CDC indicates Elon was right and the Covid case-fatality rate is similar to the flu, which makes more factory shutdowns unlikely.
https://physiciansforinformedconsen...IC-COVID-19-Disease-Information-Statement.pdf
8) Downgrades from both Goldman and Jonas dipped TSLA only 4%, even on a weak macro day. A Goldman downgrade alone used to drop the stock 20%, but they have cried wolf too many times.
Bye bye triple-digit TSLA. You will soon be gone for good.
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Right, wait, what? Won't lower demand for oil reduce prices and cause fewer people to switch to BEVs? I forget if it is Toyota or Honda that is betting on plug in hybrids and that might not be a wrong bet. Even if the hype about charging being a PITA is overblown it's more about perception than reality and I can't tell you how many people ask me about it. It's new to them and the world is imbued in the ritual of gasoline stations. So they think EVs should use something equivalent.
Yes, but the end of the station is still only 2021 or so. The switch to EVs won't be overly fast, it won't be overly slow. But I suspect there will be surprises. Some guys came up with the idea that ICE repair shops will go through dramatic changes, first seeing large demand as the reluctant to change ICE owners need more and more repairs. Then a more abrupt than expected decline when these vehicles finally give up the ghost. Nearly the end of small auto repair. But it may turn out to be more complex than that. Similarly, other aspects of the switch to EVs may have many unexpected twists and turns.
We are years before a shakeout happens in the EV market. There may be a few more Dysons where companies just don't make it, but the market is not remotely mature enough for that. Maybe sometime after 2025 or later. We may end up losing some of the big iron auto makers through mergers. Many of the start ups will end in flames. Who knows which ones?
I have some bad news for you - Uber & Lyft currently operate their ride share networks at a massive loss. The “revenue stream” that supports them able to operate with negative margins is massive amounts of capital injected first by Private Equity and then by shareholders once they went public.
if Tesla operated A network with human drivers in a “Neutral profit manner” it would likely be at higher prices than what Uber/Lyft charge.
Well the thing is Tesla is very good at leveraging existing technological infrastructure to add new services. So we're not talking about Tesla creating a brand new company with buildings, equipment, new R&D budget and such. The marginal operating costs should be miniscule compared to Uber and Lyft imo. Hell, already saving a ton not having to pay the CEO any salary!
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Ford's been teasing an all-electric F-150 since the SEMA show in the Fall of 2008. If (and that's one BIG 'IF') it arrives in 2022, then it'll only have been delayed fourteen years.
Meanwhile, the long-since retired imagineers over at the GM EV1 program say "HOLD MY BEER!"
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Fishy Fish
Member
1) don't forget the Mach-e, which hopefully Munro will do a similar tear down series of videos on when it's available (later this year?). But granted, it probably won't have Model Y volumes due to battery supply.
7) Ugh... Hate that I have to bring this up. Couldn't find in that report where/if it states that recent lock down measures were accounted for when comparing to seasonal flu numbers, as well as accounting for what 1918 numbers might have looked like with modern medical treatments and protocols and facilities, modern instantaneous communication abilities, modern travel patterns, and modern population densities and patterns. If they did take all that into account to do the comparison (possible to do with much accuracy?), thumbs up. If they didn't, then seasonal flu numbers would likely be way lower with lock downs and distancing happening world wide each season like we are doing presently, and 1918 numbers would probably have been less with all those modern things applied, perhaps closer to current Covid numbers. Likewise, today's covid numbers would be possibly way way higher if this exact strain happened and we were using 1918 technology and practices not to mention if we had done no lock downs or distancing.
Is there a lot of profit on cars in space? New and growing market perhaps?
Is there a lot of profit in cars that don't exist?
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Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Ross Gerber on TSLA downgrades (this afternoon on TD Ameritrade):
Shall we refer to this as AJ's Bottom? Guess he totally whiffed on the Semi coming this early, huh?
Ross also went on to express a cautious note regarding media reports about Chinese batteries:
Cheers!
"Well my first thought is always the same when I get my notes from Morgan Stanley which is I laugh because they are so reactive with the way they analyze Tesla, and they have been, you know, for years.
"It's almost embarrassing so, you know, I don't know why Morgan Stanley keeps embarrassing themselves with these reactive downgrades."
"It's almost embarrassing so, you know, I don't know why Morgan Stanley keeps embarrassing themselves with these reactive downgrades."
Shall we refer to this as AJ's Bottom? Guess he totally whiffed on the Semi coming this early, huh?
Ross also went on to express a cautious note regarding media reports about Chinese batteries:
Interviewer: "I also heard that the cobalt free batteries in China, there's lots of little headlines that are are surrounding Tesla. Which ones are you most focused on for the next 6 to 12 months?
Gerber: "Well, I think first of all there's a lot of stuff that's said about Tesla that isn't true, that's just made up. So it's very important to focus on Elon and what Tesla is actually saying, and not a lot of the stuff you read which is really just speculation. So I think the real thing to watch with Tesla is their ability to ramp Model Y."
Gerber: "Well, I think first of all there's a lot of stuff that's said about Tesla that isn't true, that's just made up. So it's very important to focus on Elon and what Tesla is actually saying, and not a lot of the stuff you read which is really just speculation. So I think the real thing to watch with Tesla is their ability to ramp Model Y."
Cheers!
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Fishy Fish
Member
I acknowledge that, and yet here are some reactions to increased cases:
Summer setback: Cities put brakes on reopening as virus spikes again
Yahoo is now a part of Verizon Media
https://www.star-telegram.com/sports/dfwvarsity/article243458941.html
I also acknowledged that it may make sense to do an event early rather than later since things are right now opening up.
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