There are lots of fanbois here. I'm trying to be realistic. I am still holding 288 shares and put in a sell order for 920 the other day, then canceled because I've already sold a bunch and don't want to pay more taxes. I want to properly estimate the likelihood of doing better by holding until 2021 and a good time to buy back in on the stocks I have sold.
Fremont production of Model Y is behind schedule because of the virus and possibly quality issues (not sure if the reports are valid or not). So they may still achieve +50% in 2020.
GF Berlin is not new. It's a year out or so, no? Will that ramp production 50%, I don't think so. More like +33%. So how to get +50% in 2021?
GF in Texas is still just a wet dream, producing what exactly? Semi perhaps? So is this being counted twice? Cyber truck? All of these are a fair way from production, 2022 maybe? Even then, will that be +50% in 2022 on top of S, X, 3 and Y production? Very unlikely. More like +20%.
I just don't by an average growth of +50% for 10 years. This is pure speculation and whatever the opposite of FUD is.
That would be great... when? Battery costs are still too high for a lower cost compact. It will happen, but not in the next couple of years for certain.
Ok, we will see.
Not sure I said anything about "fairly slowly". Another post talked about a prediction that Tesla will grow an average of 50% a year for the next 10 years. That would be along the same lines as gas consumption tailing off significantly in the next year or two other than from external issues like the coronavirus.
I'm not sure it is that simple. Surely there are advantages of being first and having infrastructure to support EVs. But there is time for all entries to grow as the market grows. Then later when something happens to slow the growth or shrink the market there will be a shake out. I see this often in the semiconductor market. They have similar investment in large fabs costing billions of dollars.
Mad panic is not a term I would use. The world is still buying 50 times more ICE than EVs. I think there is still time to design the right sort of EVs. That's why companies change their plans rather than come out with a product that might not sell well. A poor product at this time would be very bad for the company and very bad for careers. Much worse than a delay.
I pity Ford who likely would love to push an electric F150. But will their customers really like that or is it the wrong market for an EV?
