Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SouthSeas]

How are you only holding 288sh if you CANCELLED a sell order for 920sh?

The price was $920. That's pretty damn tempting. It would cover a lot of taxes but I do have confidence the stock will do well longer term. The trick is always about timing. Would it be better to sell at current prices and reinvest at a lower price or just wait until 2021 and pay less taxes?

I'm not trolling. I have no belief that anything I post here will have any impact on the stock price. I'm just trying to discuss the stock rationally. But there are so many here who see that as a hostile act. It's like you aren't allowed to have an opinion if it isn't about how wonderful the company is and how rich all investors will be.

I do believe the company will do great over the next four or five years. But beyond that I don't believe it is inevitable the company will continue to succeed as they have done. I'm not saying they won't. I just think it is not inevitable.

In the meantime I think the company will continue to see ups and downs. This is inevitable given the way the company is run, pushing as hard as they can for growth. Invariably they will hit bumps in the road that will have much more of an impact on a company in a more precarious position and so create great opportunities to invest for huge returns. Investing in Tesla at $1,000 a share will likely not pay well for some time to come. Investing below $500 a share will pay well within a year.

 

[Unpilot]

Investing below $500 a share will pay well within a year.

Good luck with that!

 

[SouthSeas]

There are many metrics pointing out that Model Y production is not as bad as you think. We see vins in the 14xxx taking deliveries and mass emails sent out to reservation holders about preparing for delivery before the month end. I wouldn't be surprised if 15k model Ys are delivered this Q. Additional 25-30k Model 3s are in the bag from China. Tesla also had close to 30k worth of inventory starting the quarter, and additional 1.7 months of production that is going very "well" according to Elon. So it's not hard to see 80k+ deliveries this Q which means pretty close to profitability once you add FSD revenue recognition and EV credits. There's also a very high possibility that deliveries will massively outpace production due to the additional cars left over from last Q + production shut down which is another tail wind for financials. I am pretty bullish on Q2 actually since a 'surprise profit" will just shoot Tesla over the moon. You can choose to miss sit out if you don't think so.

I'll take your word for those numbers of production. We will get production and sales numbers at the end of the month, no? But I can't see how they will manage a profit this quarter. Even just delivering cars in the current situation is difficult.

How likely do you think even a tiny profit would be? I agree it would be a huge boost. I would definitely sell then.

 

[re04586]

I'm not trolling. I have no belief that anything I post here will have any impact on the stock price. I'm just trying to discuss the stock rationally. But there are so many here who see that as a hostile act. It's like you aren't allowed to have an opinion if it isn't about how wonderful the company is and how rich all investors will be.

I don't agree with all of your arguments, but I one for one appreciate your thoughts. Nothing you said is completely irrational, and I hope you continue to contribute with the same candor. I think hearing both the bull and bear cases to TSLA is valuable.

 

[SouthSeas]

Analyst never explain exactly.

How would I do it?

A 2020 Toyota Camry V6 gets a combined 26 MPG and has a 16 gallon gas tank. So roughly 400 miles of range. And does 0-60 in ~5.8 seconds and 1/4 mile in ~14.5 seconds.

So roughly how much does it cost to get roughly equal performance in an electric powertrain in a similar sized form factor.

I guess you can also do a BMW 3 Series 4 cylinder turbo etc.

I think the parts that are hard to match are the range and the price. Obviously the performance is virtually free since it doesn't take a huge effort to get amazing performance from an EV. But even in a small car a 400 mile range battery is going to push the price way above an ICE.

Even if some of that price is displaced by lower costs of ownership, that is a tough sell. Give it a few more years of battery development and maybe the price issue won't be so significant and the ToC will make EVs more universally appealing.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I still don’t quite get exactly what “price parity” means between ICE & EV power trains

It's just the purchase cost at Retail, neglecting ongoing costs of fuel, lubricants, maintenance, repair, and replacement (capital cost).

 

[Curt Renz]

CNBC - Tuesday:

Tesla discussion begins at the 12:39 minute-mark.

 

[SouthSeas]

I don't agree with all of your arguments, but I one for one appreciate your thoughts. Nothing you said is completely irrational, and I hope you continue to contribute with the same candor. I think hearing both the bull and bear cases to TSLA is valuable.

Thank you.

Part of the reason I am back in this thread is because early in the year about the time I stopped posting it seems a moderator thought I was "spreading FUD" simply because I discussed the possibility of Tesla not continuing to be profitable. I think one of my posts even mentioned the "remote" possibility that the coronavirus would have some impact on sales. I dropped in to ask about an issue with my car (seems the vampire drain is greatly reduced lately) and looked up the post I was warned about. Next thing I know I'm discussing trading the stock. lol

I'm no troll. I wish people could just discuss the issues rationally and not get so wound up about it all.

 

[MC3OZ]

As I see it, that's the beauty of price parity as FUD. First, it distracts from TCO, a better-defined and more important metric that EVs already do pretty well on. And by reframing the debate around price parity, one can support EVs publicly while at the same time urging consumers to wait for the next generation of vehicles (and meanwhile buy ICE or hybrid). And since "price parity" isn't rigorously redefined, one can keep moving the goalposts and repeating the FUD cycle indefinitely.

I don't think it will be redefined.

TCO is the metric savvy early adopters use...

As as it gets progressively closer the TCO argument becomes more obvious...

Price Parity is when most of the public gets it, and most of the industry realises the public gets it.

To move the goal posts they need to keep dropping the price of ICE, not easy to do.

 

[SouthSeas]

RobStark said: ↑
A 2020 Toyota Camry V6 gets a combined 26 MPG and has a 16 gallon gas tank. So roughly 400 miles of range. And does 0-60 in ~5.8 seconds and 1/4 mile in ~14.5 seconds.

Lol, to paraphrase Mark Twain, 'this increasingly hypothetical Camry would NOT be a Toyota'.

Cheers!

Is the performance issue really so important? First, how many model 3s can perform at that level? Most are much more mundane and still pricey compared to many cars that people buy in large quantities.

If Tesla made 10,000,000 model 3s and Ys per year to sell at $35,000 each, I don't believe they could sell a fraction of them. The market needs to grow and the price needs to come down. They don't need to become higher performance. Given some time, this will all happen. I don't believe it is only about building more factories and "they will come". People need to see others driving them and learn that they are workable and in fact better in many ways. I think a big issue is learning that you may never need to charge anywhere other than at home again. The gas station paradigm is so deeply ingrained.

 

[AZRI11]

Texas may well see a lot more issues in their second wave than they did in the first.

Even if the infection rate never over tops the hospitals, there are 2,000 new cases every day in Texas and 25 deaths. That puts this disease high in the list of preventable deaths. Yes, preventable. The US has taken the attitude of surrender allowing the disease to roll over our population and relying on it's mercy as to who it does not kill.

Not exactly the Alamo spirit, eh?

What is happening in Texas regarding company owned dealerships and repair centers? Is Tesla ever going to have non-owned repair facilities? Will they ever allow third parties to buy their parts?

I know this doesn't belong on this thread. Here goes covid-19 is a coronavirus. Coronavirus is another name for a "cold" this one is much more serious, yes. When in the history of the world have we been able to stop a cold virus (other than SARS-CoV-1) that has already had an outbreak, never. Test and trace, and keep an eye on ICU capacity. Wear your masks. Sorry to the moderator.

 

[Johnny Ma]

I came up with the idea of buying tesla paraphernalia whenever trolls/shorts post a while ago. I posted my purchases on here each time a particular (probable) short posted and the mods ended up deleting at least some of my posts. I understand that decision - something like that is more suited for Twitter.

Because of certain recent posts here, I'm going to get back to buying stuff on the Tesla store, but I won't clog up this thread with screenshots of my purchases. Consider doing the same. If you're active on Twitter, which I no longer am, consider retweeting shorts and uploading pics of Tesla stuff you've purchased as a result of their lies and hatred. "I just bought this *insert screenshot of purchase* because of your tweet." Just a suggestion.

 

[MC3OZ]

If Tesla made 10,000,000 model 3s and Ys per year to sell at $35,000 each, I don't believe they could sell a fraction of them.

They would probably make 10M compact models for a price around 20K-25K.

4M Model 3 and Model Y with 2M in the 35K price bracket.

People will probably pay a bit more for an EV because of lower running costs, and longer life, and higher resale.

I think the plan for Tesla to sell up to 20M vehicles is serious.

The Chinese plan to make a lot more than 20M...

Companies only plan to make what they believe they can sell.

If you are a Tesla owner and shareholder, I don't understand why you are so negative...

IMO COVID-19 has scrambled peoples thinking, people are worried and thinking short term, rather than being pragmatic, thinking long term and seeing the big picture.

 

[mblakele]

I don't think it will be redefined.

TCO is the metric savvy early adopters use...

As as it gets progressively closer the TCO argument becomes more obvious...

Price Parity is when most of the public gets it, and most of the industry realises the public gets it.

To move the goal posts they need to keep dropping the price of ICE, not easy to do.

Good points, well made.

I'd agree that initially, many consumers will focus on sticker price. But most will admit, eventually, that they're going to finance and so what matters is the out-of-pocket cost: monthly payments plus operating expenses. In other words, TCO.

For those moving goal posts, I had other targets in mind: range and charging speed: basically the "no true scotsman" fallacy. "Sure, the Foobar EV400 costs about the same as the ICE I'm cross-shopping. But that isn't real price parity because the range is only 425-mi; I need to drive 450-mi without stopping. Call me when you have an EV that does that, at the same price." Or if the ranges are too ridiculous, focus on time to recharge. Repeat this basic argument endlessly, with slightly more demanding requirements.

 

[MC3OZ]

Good points, well made.

I'd agree that initially, many consumers will focus on sticker price. But most will admit, eventually, that they're going to finance and so what matters is the out-of-pocket cost: monthly payments plus operating expenses. In other words, TCO.

For those moving goal posts, I had other targets in mind: range and charging speed: basically the "no true scotsman" fallacy. "Sure, the Foobar EV400 costs about the same as the ICE I'm cross-shopping. But that isn't real price parity because the range is only 425-mi; I need to drive 450-mi without stopping. Call me when you have an EV that does that, at the same price." Or if the ranges are too ridiculous, focus on time to recharge. Repeat this basic argument endlessly, with slightly more demanding requirements.

Once the public are savvy, know an EV driver and have ridden in a EV, they will be better informed and make progressively smarter buying decisions, because the right decision should be obvious to all but the terminally stupid.. or those who really like the sensation of driving an ICE.

Legacy auto has a culture of denial, because moving to EVs is hard, risky and expensive, it takes them well out of their comfort zone..

For the car buyer it is different, they are looking for a product that works for them... driving 450-mi without stopping only works as an argument, if it is something they regularly do... They will notice friends, family,and neighbours buying EVs and having no trouble with road trips.. sure there are late adopters just like early adopters .. most customers are in the middle and more pragmatic..

EVs haven't got far beyond the early adopter phase, the next stages of growth are typically more rapid...

It isn't that obvious, but the products have matured, production is becoming optimised, economies of scale are kicking in, and R&D is starting to deliver results. So better products at lower prices, in higher volumes is a likely trend..

 

[Singuy]

Is the performance issue really so important? First, how many model 3s can perform at that level? Most are much more mundane and still pricey compared to many cars that people buy in large quantities.

If Tesla made 10,000,000 model 3s and Ys per year to sell at $35,000 each, I don't believe they could sell a fraction of them. The market needs to grow and the price needs to come down. They don't need to become higher performance. Given some time, this will all happen. I don't believe it is only about building more factories and "they will come". People need to see others driving them and learn that they are workable and in fact better in many ways. I think a big issue is learning that you may never need to charge anywhere other than at home again. The gas station paradigm is so deeply ingrained.

I think horsepower performance does not have mass appeal to the public like you said. Software functionality however is what breaks a Tesla into mass market WITHOUT dropping the price. So there will be an infection point in which once the software becomes as magical as we all think(FSD, summon, and reverse summon all working as intended), then the world will not get enough of Tesla at 35k because it will be transportation 2.0. So the 50% yoy growth is possible as long as software can keep pace making each car more and more valuable to the customer. You no longer have to convince people to buy a Tesla because it's a new era. (flip phones to smart phones, mail to emails, offline to online shopping).

Musk knows this. He said there's only a small chance of success as a new car company with an electric car having FSD. He was not confident in the successful transition to EVs without FSD.

 

[JusRelax]

BEVs are less than 2% of car sales in the US and will increase fairly slowly in quantity even if more rapidly in percentage.

Whoa, whoa there boy! I'm looking at a data series that shows a cycle of swinging positive and negative. Why would anyone think the cycle has ended based on this data? Why do you have to call me a liar?

I'm not saying I agree with the data. But you can't deny that is the trend in that data set.

Why do people have to be so militant here?

Tesla's 5-yr revenue CAGR is 50.4%. Tesla's 7-yr revenue CAGR is 79.3%. Elon stated on the most recent conference call that, barring a force majeure event, he sees continued growth at 50% (40% at the lowest). Your "BEVs are less than 2% of car sales in the US and will increase fairly slowly in quantity even if more rapidly in percentage" statement basically tells me that you don't see Tesla sustained CAGR in the past continuing into the future.

I'm not straight out calling you a liar -- I'm saying you're either a bad liar or a bad investor (I agree this was a little blunt and harsh). My question still stands, though - If you don't believe that even half of Tesla's 7-yr revenue CAGR of 80% is sustainable regardless of Elon's statements regarding future growth, then why did you invest in the first place?

In my opinion, based on your projections for Tesla and the EV market in general, you should have sold the rest of your stake when Tesla stock price was quite a bit lower. Selling now for you would be a huge win if your forecast is accurate.

 

[willow_hiller]

There are lots of fanbois here.

Your optimism did not pan out today.

The price was $920. That's pretty damn tempting. It would cover a lot of taxes but I do have confidence the stock will do well longer term.

I'm not trolling. I have no belief that anything I post here will have any impact on the stock price. I'm just trying to discuss the stock rationally.

Honestly nothing you've posted today makes sense.

You say this thread is full of fan boys, but you're definitely not trolling and just here for advice from the fan boy thread...

And you call yourself a serious investor, but you fret over a single days change? And how would selling at $920 be "tempting" to "cover taxes." Selling creates tax liability.

 

[Opus BC fan]

Today I picked up a few more shares. This evening I used the ignore button once.
It has been a good week to spectate with skin in the game. Enjoy your weekend folks!

 

[Jack6591]

Nearly everyone pays measurably more for smart phone service, than was paid for traditional landline service. Because, it is worth it.

EVs ought to cost more the ICE cars. Because, they are worth it.

My dad always counseled me to never take out a long term loan, on a short term car.

My dad never drove an EV; especially one with a million mile battery.