Tesla's 5-yr revenue CAGR is 50.4%. Tesla's 7-yr revenue CAGR is 79.3%. Elon stated on the most recent conference call that, barring a force majeure event, he sees continued growth at 50% (40% at the lowest). Your "BEVs are less than 2% of car sales in the US and will increase fairly slowly in quantity even if more rapidly in percentage" statement basically tells me that you don't see Tesla sustained CAGR in the past continuing into the future.
I don't want to be argumentative, but you seem to be honestly asking so I'll respond. The big % growth in revenue came from starting the sales of the model 3. The S and X were never going to be large sellers. Tesla did a good enough job getting the model 3 out the door and then did a good job of starting production in China before the virus clamped down on things. So that would give excellent growth numbers for any period longer than two years... simply because they made so few before 2018 rather than because they made so many since.
But what will 50% require going forward? With two large production factories up and running now, they will need to get model Y production up fully by the end of 2020. That is likely if the virus doesn't continue to be a problem bringing annual production up to 600k or more.
In 2021 they will need to add at least 300k more, so the factory in Germany has to be pumping out as nearly as many models 3 and Y as are being made in the Fremont facility.
2022 they need to bring up two factories, in 2023 four factories, 2024 eight factories, 2025 16 factories...
Along with all that they need to expand the supercharger network and expand the sales channels and just keep selling in ever increasing numbers.
No, I don't believe this is going to happen. Just as the coronavirus stopped growing exponentially, the things allowing Tesla to grow so quickly the last two years will not continue as they grow beyond the model Y.
I'm not straight out calling you a liar -- I'm saying you're either a bad liar or a bad investor (I agree this was a little blunt and harsh). My question still stands, though - If you don't believe that even half of Tesla's 7-yr revenue CAGR of 80% is sustainable regardless of Elon's statements regarding future growth, then why did you invest in the first place?
I really hate that you use the liar word. There's no reason at all to think I am lying. It's not "harsh", it's just plain rude.
I invested in Tesla to make money. I bought at prices between roughly $200 and $300 believing the stock would increase as various difficulties were resolved. I've done that in the past with other companies when I though the market was undervaluing them. Again it has paid handsomely earning me somewhere close to a quarter mil. So maybe not shrewd since I sold one block that matured into long term gains around $500 when the next one sold for over $900. I actually pulled the trigger on $920 the other day and it would have traded before end of day if I hadn't canceled it because I don't want to pay all those taxes this year.
In my opinion, based on your projections for Tesla and the EV market in general, you should have sold the rest of your stake when Tesla stock price was quite a bit lower. Selling now for you would be a huge win if your forecast is accurate.
I think this statement shows you still don't understand why I invested. I can make money in the company without expecting to hold the stock for the next five years. I don't know how the market will respond to the next quarterly report, but at some point before the end of the year I expect the stock to drop back to $500 just because it is highly volatile and there is always something negative with any company. The difference is one company might drop 10% or 20% while Tesla can drop like a rock when it is this high. Then I will get back in to wait another year before reaping profits. I just don't believe the company is worth a kilobuck until they show steady GAAP profits.
BTW, it doesn't matter how high the stock price gets. No profit is made until the stock is sold.