Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[willow_hiller]

They have a religious detachment from reality of "don't confuse me with the facts, my mind is made up".
It's somewhat pathetic that they will avoid Tesla at all costs while suffering with slow charging, frustrating road trips, uncomfortable seats, lack of OTA, etc., and try to puff up the features of a Bolt or Leaf as superior to the point of flagrant lying. Truly the definition of delusional.

On this note, I've recently had a crash course in all of the fear and doubt spread about Tesla on the energy side of the business.

I had never spent much time reading about solar, but after placing my Tesla Solar order last week I spent several days browsing forums around here and on Reddit. It's incredible just how many solar installers hang out on those threads, spreading as much negative information about Tesla Solar as possible.

Honest people come asking why Tesla is 20-50% cheaper than the competition in their area, and all the installers chime in with "helpful" advice like "never accept the cheapest quote for work" or "you get what you pay for." One guy on a recent thread couldn't believe the new solar prices, and went on a rant about how Tesla is engaging in "predatory pricing" to become some sort of evil mega-utility. Seriously what's the logical conclusion there?

Step 1. They help millions of people afford the means to generate their own clean, renewable energy for the next 30 years...
Step 2. ???
Step 3. Evil monopolistic profits?

 

[FrankSG]

With an Options Expiry date of Sep 18, 2020 these Calls imply a position for Battery Day (tentatively Sep 15th).

I think the risk there is not WHAT will be revealed on Bty Day, but the possibility that the event itself could be postponed. ie: a Labor Day induced coro-uptick and these calls implode...

Seems more likely to be a Q2 ER and S&P 500 inclusion play, with Battery Day perhaps as an added bonus. I think that, if it was purely a battery day play, the buyer would have chosen a somewhat later expiration.

 

[Thekiwi]

Don't count chickens ... .

Also remember even if D's take the presidency and both houses, the GOP can stop any initiative they please because there's no chance the D's will have 60 seats in the Senate. And they will be motivated to stop anything Biden wants to accomplish. The D's would get some things through, though, by giving the GOP some things they want.

If the Democrats hold the senate they could just pass this with a simple majority vote under a Budget reconciliation bill, or changing senate rules to simple majority vote (like republicans did for Supreme Court nominations under Trump).

 

[FrankSG]

Is this at all a correct way to compare the numbers? I know it's way simplified but still.

Last quarter with 88k cars sold gave a 16 million profit.

This quarter Tesla has roughly 15k 'free' cars each giving around 10k in profit. So that's a 150 million better than last quarter right there.

Everything else equal, which it obviously won't be, that means FCA and other credits could be 166 million less than last quarter if deliveries are around 88k

If so a profitable quarter seems very likely.

That's not how it works. The costs of a vehicle are accounted for on the income statement not when the vehicle is made, nor when suppliers have to be paid, but when the vehicle is sold.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

I think we've been hardened to analyze competition to Tesla from years of defending and deflecting and hopefully digesting the short narrative for a decade now. I know that I've learned what to look for when a company talks a good game. Every time Milton makes some outrageous claim, it reminds me of what Elon may have looked like at the time to the uninformed. And then I look into why it's different.
We can now shred the comparison with ease having the trump card of credibility, accomplishments, results and actual product. One is real, the other isn't. I do agree with others here though that rather than become one of the NKLAQ, take the high road and ignore it.

The other observation that I have about why NKLA is doing so well is that there's a huge population of anti-Tesla and anti-Elon types that will cheer on any challenger to dethrone the new king. It seems obvious to us that they really haven't even looked into what the challenger's arsenal is or even if they have one. It doesn't matter to them because it's ABT (Anything But Tesla). I run into this on other BEV forums all the time and they will take any little scrap of negativity and that's their argument to pile on with claims that Tesla is the devil and Musk is a cult leader. They have a confirmation bias that runs wild without cause and no matter what evidence you provide, they will not budge. They have a religious detachment from reality of "don't confuse me with the facts, my mind is made up".
It's somewhat pathetic that they will avoid Tesla at all costs while suffering with slow charging, frustrating road trips, uncomfortable seats, lack of OTA, etc., and try to puff up the features of a Bolt or Leaf as superior to the point of flagrant lying. Truly the definition of delusional.

Does the expression “trump card” still mean the same thing in this day and age?

Just sayin.

 

[Jack6591]

There are those participating here with far greater skills than myself. And, I tend to paint in very broad strokes. But right now, at this moment in time, I cannot get past juxtaposing Tesla second quarter results against the broader automotive industry.

Kirk Gibson limps to home plate, cracks a two-run homer to win the game and lead Dodgers to World Series victory over the heavily-favored Athletics.

We are living a moment, never seen in business history. All the best to the men and women of Tesla. Thank you.

To all the longs, savor this time, you deserve it.

 

[1101011]

I think you also need to consider the market cap of the company added to the S & P. Tesla is unusual that it has a large market cap and was not added earlier. The estimate is $60B (yes billion) will flow into Tesla...

My understanding is that those funds will have to acquire stock to match the percentage equal to the percentage of TSLA in the S&P. No additional shares issued, so no funds flowing in to Tesla. But the buying pressure on th SP will be most interesting.

 

[EVortex]

I guess what bothers me the most about FUDsters and those pushing conceptual ideas as actual products is the notion that lack of truth and transparency in pursuit of personal gain and selfishness is now accepted more than ever as a normal part of our culture because “everybody does it.” It’s also a shortcut to a desired outcome without having earned it through hard work and actually adding something of value to our society. It certainly seems as though the achievements of those that actually accomplish something real are discounted and even ridiculed. Maybe I am just an old boomer, but this saddens me and is tough for me to accept.

 

[Thekiwi]

Has anyone thought about what impact positive surprises (Earnings/P&Ds) will have going forward as Tesla market cap has tipped more to becoming more fairly valued?

There is an argument that the more bullish the market is on Tesla future value (represented by Market Capitalization & earnings multiples), the less impact positive surprises would have on the share price. I am not sure that theory holds up in the current environment, with most companies including Tesla being given some slack due to CV impact, but might be more valid from next quarter.

While I do not think the current Tesla market cap reflects perfect future execution from Tesla (it is not pricing in 40-50% compounded growth for the next decade with sustained high gross margins), it no doubt reflects much rosier company performance than it did 6 or 12 months ago (perhaps 20-25% compounded growth for a few years with modest decrease in gross margins). So I think the bar is going to be raised for what causes big stock price moves upward going forward as expectations are now higher than they were.

In other words, when half the market used to believe the TSLAQ Durp-durps there were big reactions when Tesla reported deliveries/profits above expectations - but now most of the market has consigned the TSLAQ theories to the same drawer as climate deniers & flat earthers and expects profits going forwards.

 

[StealthP3D]

Tesla-Heavy $4.6 Billion Actively Managed ETF Has Record Inflows

'Traders put almost $180 million into the Ark Innovation ETF (ARKK) in the five-day period ended Friday, the most since it began trading in 2014, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That was the actively managed fund’s 17th straight week of inflows.'

Inflows into ARKK means inflows into TSLA..

It also means Cathie Wood might become one of the wealthiest women in the financial industry. I'm going to love to watch her pass up her clueless male cohorts with stinky cologne!

 

[Zaxxon]

Well, I don't know if we'll turn a profit, but a bit of my profit was just converted into the delivery of a new 3 so the elder 3 can move to a family member's home this coming weekend.

Oh, and to add the Acceleration Boost upgrade.

Ugh, and Homelink.

Err, and perhaps a frunk mat...

 

[Stretch2727]

My understanding is that those funds will have to acquire stock to match the percentage equal to the percentage of TSLA in the S&P. No additional shares issued, so no funds flowing in to Tesla. But the buying pressure on th SP will be most interesting.

Agreed. I meant TSLA stock. Obviously no inflow to Tesla the company.

 

[Joe F]

So I was supposed to have my S upgraded today to AP3 and MCU2, a $2500 purchase. Sadly, the parts were not available, and it was rescheduled. Can’t give Tesla money!

However, we’re sitting here about 45 minutes into a power outage. Time to order solar and powerwalls. I actually called about it recently, but didn’t pull the trigger as our roofline is going to change due to an addition we’re planning. Rock and hard place time.

Gee, I wonder if the old gas generator in my shed will start. I think the last time I used it was superstorm Sandy...

 

[UncaNed]

I was gonna bite my tongue and not reply to @Todd Burch , but the grammatical similarity of a phrase in @dgodfrey 's post (bolded below) triggered me to post a reply I wrote over the weekend.

...They have a confirmation bias that runs wild without cause and no matter what evidence you provide, they will not budge. They have a religious detachment from reality of "don't confuse me with the facts, my mind is made up".
It's somewhat pathetic that they will avoid Tesla at all costs while suffering with slow charging, frustrating road trips, uncomfortable seats, lack of OTA, etc., and try to puff up the features of a Bolt or Leaf as superior to the point of flagrant lying. Truly the definition of delusional.

Someone explain why the birthplace of the computer, electricity, flight, and so much more is also home to some of the biggest morons on the planet?!?

Because so many of our children are instilled with the disconnect from reality inherent in religion, basically a mental program that shunts rational thought off the rails wherever needed to accept the dogma - a disconnect that affects people for life.

This is relevant to our national long term productivity and economic competitiveness. I believe... (oops) - I mean, Elon himself has weighed in on this issue, religion vs. rationality.

Also hardly less relevant than many posts in this forum - why can't we invest in the massive multi-billion dollar, tax exempt religion industry?

 

[Krugerrand]

I guess what bothers me the most about FUDsters and those pushing conceptual ideas as actual products is the notion that lack of truth and transparency in pursuit of personal gain and selfishness is now accepted more than ever as a normal part of our culture because “everybody does it.” It’s also a shortcut to a desired outcome without having earned it through hard work and actually adding something of value to our society. It certainly seems as though the achievements of those that actually accomplish something real are discounted and even ridiculed. Maybe I am just an old boomer, but this saddens me and is tough for me to accept.

Life isn’t fair and people suck. Now you know why I want to be left alone on my island.

Once you get to a certain age, it just wears you the heck down, doesn’t it? It never stops. Everywhere you turn it’s in your face.

How Elon can be so Elon despite the general disgusting nature of humanity is hard for me to wrap my brain around, especially when he’s been treated so harshly and continues to be. He truly is an amazing alien.

 

[JonathanDandrea]

Talked wife into a trunk mat 130$ secured

 

[EVortex]

Life isn’t fair and people suck. Now you know why I want to be left alone on my island.

Once you get to a certain age, it just wears you the heck down, doesn’t it? It never stops. Everywhere you turn it’s in your face.

How Elon can be so Elon despite the general disgusting nature of humanity is hard for me to wrap my brain around, especially when he’s been treated so harshly and continues to be. He truly is an amazing alien.

I wish you joy and happiness on your island!

 

[UCF3]

I was gonna bite my tongue and not reply to @Todd Burch , but the grammatical similarity of a phrase in @dgodfrey 's post (bolded below) triggered me to post a reply I wrote over the weekend.


Because so many of our children are instilled with the disconnect from reality inherent in religion, basically a mental program that shunts rational thought off the rails wherever needed to accept the dogma - a disconnect that affects people for life.

This is relevant to our national long term productivity and economic competitiveness. I believe... (oops) - I mean, Elon himself has weighed in on this issue, religion vs. rationality.

Also hardly less relevant than many posts in this forum - why can't we invest in the massive multi-billion dollar, tax exempt religion industry?

You constantly give people a hard time about off topic posts in this thread. Probably should take this somewhere else

 

[mejojo]

......why can't we invest in the massive multi-billion dollar, tax exempt religion industry?

You can...just there won’t be any money, but when you die, on your deathbed, you will receive total consciousness.

 

[kengchang]

Pre-Ordering accessory for Model Y delivery tomorrow