Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[traxila]

I’m not trying to tell people to eat their vegetables - I’m not even suggesting you read thIs transcript I posted yesterday here of Jeff Dahn’s million mile cell explainer, complete with screenshots and Jeff’s easy, natural words.

Battery Improvements - Pieces of the Puzzle

Just know that they have it in the bag!

Awesome thank you!

 

[Silentk]

OT about OT stuff

Perhaps the mods need to create a new subforum for all the OT stuff. Then if someone wants an OT diversion (of what someone else finds interesting and felt an overwhelming compulsion to share) they can go there to the OT forum and if they want to follow investor related discussions they could stay here.

I made a suggestion which was dismissed by the mods, that off topic discussion could simply be highlighted a different colour, making it easy to skim past. So for example this line could be blue as off-topic (the text colour should be blue not the content!)...

while investment info would still be black.

I think that mod has moved on, so what are your all thoughts about this simple solution? (not perfect, as hard to highlight text on phones sometimes)

 

[lafrisbee]

Hi Frank

I think at least Candlenut or Odette, on me

Many thanks

REEALLLLLY OT! But you made the image come in my head (poor word choice but it's hard to think of another term)
"I wonder if Madame Trousseau's Wax Museum makes them anatomically correct?"

 

[Unpilot]

Here is how I see this week for all long and strong TSLA share holders.

Here are the shorties.

 

[ZsoZso]

This is unfortunate because the name is Model 3, or just 3 for short. It is not, and has never been, 'M3'.

BMW has held the trademark for 'M3' since 1986.

This confusion about 'M3' is temporary, time will resolve this problem soon enough.
The world will quickly forget about the bankrupt car company formerly known as BMW and their names and fame will fade away, kids will laugh at the few old clunkers still on the road with the M3 badge and think the old folks driving them were trying to imitate the iconic Tesla.

 

[ZachF]

Interesting.

2020 US Vehicle Sales Figures By Brand

Tesla is literally the only brand in the USA with increasing sales this year.

 

[Unpilot]

Interesting.

2020 US Vehicle Sales Figures By Brand

Tesla is literally the only brand in the USA with increasing sales this year.

But...but...sales were halved in California!/S

 

[ZachF]

But...but...sales were halved in California!/S

Tesla is ahead of Audi, and with the Y coming online during H2, I think it could pass BMW and maybe even MB.

 

[PlaidCPA]

Now a lease option for Model Y on the Tesla website!

Design Your Model Y | Tesla

 

[The Accountant]

I'm no accountant, but I'm assuming that revenue that was deferred could be recognized at any time. If they wanted to, could they recognize all $140M in Q2? I'm confused as to what enables recognition and what requires deferral.

The accounting for EV credits are not well spelled out in the 10K/10Q filings. But this is how I suspect they are accounted for.

There are 2 pieces to EV Credits: (1) Earn Them....(2) Sell Them.
When Tesla earns EV Credits, there is no revenue yet so no impact to income. Only when the credits are sold and transferred to the buyer are credits recognized as revenue.

The likely entries are:

When EV Credits are Earned
Debit: Other Asset $140m (Balance Sheet Account)
Credit: Deferred Revenue $140m (Balance Sheet Account)

When EV Credits are Sold

Debit: Cash $140m (Balance Sheet Account)
Credit: Other Assets $140m (Balance Sheet Account)

Debit: Deferred Revenue $140m (Balance Sheet Account)
Credit: Revenue $140m (Income Statement Account)

Tesla has $140m of Deferred Revenue on the books at the end of Q1 2020. If they can find a buyer in Q2, that would bring the $140m to Revenue/Income in Q2.

Note: The accounting for the FCA/Tesla EU Emmisions revenue I suspect is different. There are no credits being sold. Tesla is being paid for joining the pool. So the accounting is unknown to me. I am accounting for the FCA-Tesla Pooling by applying a value to every car Tesla registers in the EU as each car registered reduced FCA's penalty at year-end.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I am accounting for the FCA-Tesla Pooling by applying a value to every car Tesla registers in the EU as each car registered reduced FCA's penalty at year-end.

I suspect the calculation depends upon the number of EVs that FCA was able to ship in Q2 due to the existance of "Super Credits" (double-counting some first portion of EVs made by a manufacturer). @Prunesquallor did extensive research and may be able to point at his previous comments to help refresh our memories.

Other issues with the nature of this 'pool' contract are:

• whether it's depends solely on the number of vehicles Tesla delivers up to the agreed upon limit
• if it also allows FCA to decrease its payments if they themselves sell fewer petrol powered units total (as we'd expect during this Covid outbreak).

Cheers!

 

[Mo City]

TSLA Q2'20 Earnings Forecast: $6.20B Revenue & $318M GAAP Profit

It's a very difficult quarter to forecast, so I expect to be off by more than usual, but strong Model Y and Shanghai margins almost guarantee at least a small profit.

If this happens, need to change my vote in the post-earnings TSLA poll to $2,000+

 

[ggr]

OT about OT stuff

Perhaps the mods need to create a new subforum for all the OT stuff. Then if someone wants an OT diversion (of what someone else finds interesting and felt an overwhelming compulsion to share) they can go there to the OT forum and if they want to follow investor related discussions they could stay here.

I trust that this must be a joke, given the existence of Off Topic. Or did you mean a new subforum for stuff that is Off Topic for investor discussions but not off topic for off topic discussions. Or something.

 

[Mich]

OT about OT stuff

Perhaps the mods need to create a new subforum for all the OT stuff. Then if someone wants an OT diversion (of what someone else finds interesting and felt an overwhelming compulsion to share) they can go there to the OT forum and if they want to follow investor related discussions they could stay here.

This topic is called "Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable".

This is *the* offtopic thread for all somehow investment related roundtable discussions. If you want to discuss a specific topic feel to create a new thread.

This is at least my perception. You disagree? Then let's change the title of this thread...

 

[ZeApelido]

I had a twitter account more for professional use before, but opening up a new one to more freely use has been liberating.

https://twitter.com/data_ev/status/1284848709306478592

I love TMC but this is also fun

 

[M|S|M MYP]

My estimates for Q2 posted in the Financial Projections thread:
$69m GAAP Profit

Near-future quarterly financial projections

P.S. - I'm hoping @FrankSG wins bragging rights !

So what you and @FrankSG are saying is that profit for Q2 is guaranteed

 

[JusRelax]

How do you not get on the TSLAQ block list. I don't even know what I did to get on the block list lol.

I had a twitter account more for professional use before, but opening up a new one to more freely use has been liberating.

https://twitter.com/data_ev/status/1284848709306478592

I love TMC but this is also fun

 

[1101011]

... it also allows FCA to decrease its payments if they themselves sell fewer petrol powered units total (as we'd expect during this Covid outbreak).
Cheers!

With a marked decrease in their sales of combustion units, I'd not anticipate payments to be hugely significant. Just my opinion.

 

[jbcarioca]

Would love to!

Keep in mind everyone that I'm still living in Kuala Lumpur, but I hope to be making Singapore my permanent home very soon. Perhaps as soon as in a few months if I get accepted into INSEAD. I will hear the final result of my application by this Friday. Fingers crossed.

KL does have one of the best Lahor-style restaurants around. FWIW, I spent about six months in KL. My closest friend is from Lahore originally but has lived in KL for years. He chose this place:
Best North Indian Punjabi Food In Kuala Lumpur, Cyberjaya
I'm not certain how the preparations might differ if not ordered in Urdu. Anyway, in Singapore I'd really tend to go for Chili Crab and Long Beach Dempsey is my favorite location. Long Beach is the only choice because it allegedly invented the dish.

Having regularly been in both KL and Singapore since the 1960's I admit to strong personal preferences in both, often dealing with food. Of course Singapore is not really a good place for cars, although some of the best hotels, like the ST Regis actually have free parking. I tend to stay there fo that alone. Now if Teslas were welcomed I might move there permanently.

 

[Artful Dodger]

With a marked decrease in their sales of combustion units, I'd not anticipate payments to be hugely significant. Just my opinion.

I agree that FCA's sales in Europe must have been down in Q2. Do we have a sales figure from them yet? An industry estimate if not from the manufacturer?