Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Lessmog]

I believe he was talking about decreasing space while increasing speed so something like speed/space = 1000-10000 percent increase.

Hey, now you're thinking 4D!

 

[tinm]

The legacy automakers and dealerships have always been heavily involved in TV advertising, especially during sporting events, while Tesla doesn't advertise commercially.

Below is an excerpt from the weekly newsletter published today by ARK Invest. While it does not specifically discuss the auto industry, the impact on it might be significant.

Cord Cutting Seems Disastrous for TV Advertising
By Nick Grous | @GrousARK

Typically, the disruption of entrenched technologies follows a pattern: slowly, then all at once. In our view, linear TV has hit the ‘all at once’ tipping point. Since peaking in 2011 at 103 million, the number of linear TV households in the US has slipped by 2.1% on average per year, a decline that probably accelerated this year in the absence of live sports. Recently, television advertisers have been disappointed by the dearth of viewers as Major League Baseball (MLB) and the National Basketball Association (NBA) returned to the airwaves. According to Roku’s annual cord-cutting survey, only 17% of recent cord cutters plan to re-subscribe to linear TV when live sports resume in force. Indeed, according to our research, during the next five years the number of US linear TV households will drop approximately 48%, from 86 million today to roughly 44 million in 2025.

If users cut the cord at the rate we anticipate, the $70 billion-dollar US TV ad market could collapse, shifting dollars to more efficient digital platforms. This week, Roku and The Trade Desk reported strong growth in their connected TV ad businesses, while most linear TV players like ViacomCBS posted double-digit declines. In other words, linear TV advertising seems to have hit the tipping point, with no return.

Television advertising is key for the franchise auto dealers. Here in New Mexico, you almost never, ever, as in EVER, see a single page of print ads for a car dealership in any of the major papers in the state. The dealers use TV and radio and online. The days of big full-page dealership ads consuming page after page in the newspaper are gone. And if things dry up on TV, well then... that'll be interesting.

Poor, poor dealers. Must shed a tear for them.


Not.

 

[mongo]

Tesla actually provided the picture in the Q2 Update.

View attachment 574548

That's the stamping line.
Twitter

The Fremont casting machine looks like this:

 

[Unpilot]

That's the stamping line.
Twitter

The Fremont casting machine looks like this:
View attachment 574549

What is Max Headroom doing in that picture?

 

[kengchang]

That's the stamping line.
Twitter

The Fremont casting machine looks like this:
View attachment 574549

Hmm doesn't look anything like this tho, probably not encased yet.

 

[ZachF]

VW, Toyota, Tesla, GM to Lead in EV Sales By 2040 -- Market Talk
BY Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

according to a note published Monday by Morgan Stanley:

VW 11.2M battery-electric vehicles globally in 2040
Toyota 4.9M
Tesla 4.9M
GM 4.1M

MOTOROLA, NOKIA, ERICSSON, BLACKBERRY to lead in Smartphone sales by 2015!

 

[CyberDutchie]

Every other page on this thread is about SP $2000 soon, so everyone please just read those and ignore my reply. Won't be a popular answer and haters gonna hate, but i can't wait for $1200-1300. Dry powder arriving this week, so bring it on!

Well, at least my worry was unfounded, no sinking into the 1300's or 1200's yet.

I don't mind people hoping for lower levels so they can get in cheap. Everyone's objectives are different. In my case, I just want stability, I have a lot riding on a $1500 or better level. Now, if that S&P 500 inclusion happens, that would be very helpful as well!

 

[mikevbf]

If we hang out too much near this 1420 number, we are in danger of another "the stock is high" tweet.

 

[mongo]

Hmm doesn't look anything like this tho, probably not encased yet.
View attachment 574550

Yeah, it's definitely not done yet

 

[Off Shore]

I just want stability,

¡Wrong stonk!

 

[SunCatcher]

Because it was an open pit mine, there isn't much environment left on the site.

Right...

"Gentrify Mordor." Elon Musk

If the place has already been trashed, anything Tesla brings with it will be an improvement. Much better than ruining some virgin land somewhere else.

 

[dww12]

FTFY CNBC.

 

[Captkerosene]

I feel like you don't have a good understanding of this space. I'd suggest reading the Autonomy section of this blog I wrote.

Here's an excerpt summing up Tesla's position:



Putting Tesla's lead in hardware aside, how do you see any other company solving autonomy before Tesla or creating a better autonomy system than Tesla, if all of Tesla's competitors combined only have a fraction of the data Tesla has access to. And even if a competitor could develop a better system faster, how do you see this competitor gaining regulatory approval? Tesla is the only company with a clear cut way to gain regulatory approval in my eyes.

There is one concern that I can't shake regarding Robotaxi: it's the difference between imitation and understanding. You can get to 99% with imitation. I don't think you can get to 100. Elon mentioned during the Shanghai interview that AI still hasn't progressed very far in terms of understanding IIRC. Take the recent riots in many of our cities. Imagine that your granddaughter and a few of her friends were taking a RT to a bar late at night and stumbled into one of these riots. A driver would know to get them the hell out of there. What is the RT algo going to do? Does it have a databank of similar situations to draw from? No. Can it rely on some rules based decision to leave? No. It won't understand the danger. What if thieves block a road to steal from motorists? Will the computer know that it's OK to run somebody over if they are pointing a gun at you? No. So what is the solution to that? Geo-fencing around bad neighborhoods? Good luck with that solution.

So my concern is that we need AI that can do more than imitate of follow rules ... it's got to understand. Maybe Apple or Google or Amazon os some Chinese company don't have our data or our chip, but maybe that isn't what gets you over the hump. Maybe the answer is in the next generation neural net?

If you think I don't understand all this stuff you are correct. I don't really understand any modern technology. I don't trust myself to evaluate whether Elon can get across the goal line ... and if so, faster than everybody else. Yes, I could just trust him. I trust him a lot. Just not enough to have 40% of my net worth riding on this working. At the current 8%, if it triples in the next few years then great, if it gets cut in half then no big deal. (You'll appreciate the logic of that better when you're retired.)

I could just as easily be talking about all the things I love about TSLA. On other boards, where people don't understand all the wonderful things happening I regularly praise TSLA and Elon. But it's important to force yourself to critically examine your assumptions. Most on this board don't seem to want to do that. Easier to put someone on ignore than to consider their argument.

 

[powertoold]

What is the RT algo going to do? Does it have a databank of similar situations to draw from? No. Can it rely on some rules based decision to leave? No. It won't understand the danger. What if thieves block a road to steal from motorists? Will the computer know that it's OK to run somebody over if they are pointing a gun at you? No. So what is the solution to that? Geo-fencing around bad neighborhoods? Good luck with that solution.

They can always just program a contingency feature where it'll just go back to the pick up location. I find that we often overthink driving and FSD. A lot of people are also concerned about people creating adversarial situations to confuse FSD. Well, when it comes to criminal activity, yes, we should always be concerned. The point of FSD isn't 100% foolproof. The point is to reduce driving-related deaths overall. The media is going to make that difficult, with how it treated Tesla-related fires and AP-related deaths.

You should be more concerned about your granddaughter getting into a normal car accident than rioters messing around with the car she's in.

 

[capster]

THE TESLA EFFECT: Gigafactory could transform Del Valle area

Del Valle, an underdeveloped area of southeastern Travis County that had seen minimal commercial investment for decades, was already poised for growth.

Grocery chain H-E-B is sniffing around an area badly in need of a grocery store. A Chanel subsidiary has a skin care products factory in the works in the area. Software company Zoho plans to build a headquarters nearby, employing hundreds.

But with last month’s announcement that Tesla Inc., the worldwide darling of the electric automobile industry, would invest at least $1 billion in the area and employ 5,000 in manufacturing jobs, many are now wondering whether its so-called gigafactory will trigger a sea change to this often neglected area of Travis County.

On 2,100 acres just off Texas 130, Tesla is already — in the words of one developer — “moving at the speed of Elon” Musk, as bulldozers move dirt to pave the way for the huge assembly plant.

...

The article goes on to say: "Much of the Del Valle area is in a federal Opportunity Zone, offering investors and companies potential tax advantages. It’s also in an area where the city of Austin has worked to encourage development, away from more environmentally sensitive areas in western Travis County."

Anyone know for sure if the GigaTexas site is in a federal Opportunity Zone?

What might that mean for Tesla?

 

[EV forever]

If we hang out too much near this 1420 number, we are in danger of another "the stock is high" tweet.

Nah, “Chairs are under appreciated” more likely at this point

 

[Driver Dave]

So true. However, advertising is the lifeblood of the media. Tesla does not advertise, while its competitors do so heavily. Follow the money. Meanwhile, check out my post above which is somewhat related.

True. The other thing I follow is how just much local auto dealers dictate the automotive coverage in newspapers.
It's nuts to open up any paper today and only see articles on ICE cars and nothing at all on Tesla.
Because of this, many people just had (and maybe still have) no idea what is really going on.

You have to look real carefully to see at the bottom of all of the car sections in local papers, in very very small print:

"advertising supplement"

The local dealers run the car section print section.

 

[jerry33]

I could just as easily be talking about all the things I love about TSLA. On other boards, where people don't understand all the wonderful things happening I regularly praise TSLA and Elon. But it's important to force yourself to critically examine your assumptions. Most on this board don't seem to want to do that. Easier to put someone on ignore than to consider their argument.

More correctly, we are backing Elon with our money and he's been pretty good about doing what he says he'll do, other than timelines. Best way to put it is "If you try to do ten years of achievements in six months you'll likely fail, but you'll be further ahead than the person who accepts the ten years". Also after hearing ten years of nay-sayers and having had them proven wrong every time, negative statements mostly just rinse off and don't mean much.

 

[NicoV]

MOTOROLA, NOKIA, ERICSSON, BLACKBERRY to lead in Smartphone sales by 2015!

Well, Adam Jonas will be retired by 2040, nobody will care whether he was right or wrong.

 

[Nocturnal]

They can always just program a contingency feature where it'll just go back to the pick up location. I find that we often overthink driving and FSD. A lot of people are also concerned about people creating adversarial situations to confuse FSD. Well, when it comes to criminal activity, yes, we should always be concerned. The point of FSD isn't 100% foolproof. The point is to reduce driving-related deaths overall. The media is going to make that difficult, with how it treated Tesla-related fires and AP-related deaths.

You should be more concerned about your granddaughter getting into a normal car accident than rioters messing around with the car she's in.

Right. Because we all know that people never vandalize cars, throw objects off overpasses, shoot random people etc.

"Why would anyone fly in a plane? What if a terrorist makes it crash?"

Well, Adam Jonas will be retired by 2040, nobody will care whether he was right or wrong.

Does anyone care now? (sadly the answer is still yes I think)