Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jerry33]

SH!T? Now you have me worried. If we can't kill the idiots with cars what will the world become!

If we killed all the idiots with cars, there wouldn't be a traffic problem.

 

[lafrisbee]

Fredtrek has an interesting development I hadn’t seen mentioned yet.

Tesla is involved in the development of a smartwatch, but why? - Electrek

Could be as simple as the smartwatch company wanting its watches to be able to interface with Teslas, and Tesla being game for that.

DUDE! BRING IT!
Smart watch opens car. that all it needs to do and I'd buy one. PERIOD.
And no, I am not overstating this one simple aspect. You have your phone battery die. Now how the hell are you going to get home? Or lose your phone, or it breaks. IT DOES NOT MATTER.
Now I am going to make a quantum leap, and skip over all the other obvious connectivity benefits of having your car know you and your watch....
Neural link. Your watch is a bridge between the two. Everything from the simple "The Movie has ended time to leave" thought causing the climate control to come on without you consciously thinking "Tesla turn on the AC in the car." To the ultimate in saving your life...you lose consciousness in the car so it reroutes you to the ER.
OnStar for the future..and BEYOND!!!!!

 

[kbM3]

$97,000,000.
So $37,000/acre for that POS? In Texas?
I must be wrong in thinking how terrible a purchase that was. And I can't be alone. Please explain it to us.

OMG you’re right! I just did the math and that land will add ALMOST FIVE DOLLARS cost per vehicle produced over the next 20 years. They should have taken much more time to get that under $3.00!

 

[Paul_SF]

DUDE! BRING IT!
Smart watch opens car. that all it needs to do and I'd buy one. PERIOD.
And no, I am not overstating this one simple aspect. You have your phone battery die. Now how the hell are you going to get home? Or lose your phone, or it breaks. IT DOES NOT MATTER.
Now I am going to make a quantum leap, and skip over all the other obvious connectivity benefits of having your car know you and your watch....
Neural link. Your watch is a bridge between the two. Everything from the simple "The Movie has ended time to leave" thought causing the climate control to come on without you consciously thinking "Tesla turn on the AC in the car." To the ultimate in saving your life...you lose consciousness in the car so it reroutes you to the ER.
OnStar for the future..and BEYOND!!!!!

I believe the Teslas will be able to recognize you, as the owner/driver, in the future. No need to have a phone/watch/card/key.

“Smile to one of the cameras, open the car”

 

[jerry33]

“Smile to one of the cameras, open the car”

How much to repair the camera after you've just broken it?

 

[Singuy]

Fredtrek has an interesting development I hadn’t seen mentioned yet.

Tesla is involved in the development of a smartwatch, but why? - Electrek

Could be as simple as the smartwatch company wanting its watches to be able to interface with Teslas, and Tesla being game for that.

Or could be used for advanced summon, and eventually robotaxi summon. Might be something Tesla is looking to vertically integrate.

 

[gabeincal]

Fredtrek has an interesting development I hadn’t seen mentioned yet.

Tesla is involved in the development of a smartwatch, but why? - Electrek

Could be as simple as the smartwatch company wanting its watches to be able to interface with Teslas, and Tesla being game for that.

Very interesting to see how far Tesla's arm reach. Also, interesting comment on the same page in the link:

"The key sentence here is this: "Xplora Technologies... focusing on smartwatches for kids". My guess is that this partnership will create a way for kids to use the robotaxi fleet on their own. Think about it. Parents who want to drive their kids to school with their Robo-Tesla. The car would need to unlock for the "right" person, which if it's a kid you can't guarantee they have a smartphone."

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I believe the Teslas will be able to recognize you, as the owner/driver, in the future. No need to have a phone/watch/card/key.

“Smile to one of the cameras, open the car”

Unfortunately..this might not work for the Asian community.....i can say it as i am of Asian descent

 

[brianhn1]

That is still pretty limiting in terms of what you can do and can really impact performance.


I'd bet good money that this is just like their semi contracts. No money down, and the customer can cancel at any time.



“Nikola specializes in heavy-duty, zero-emission Class 8 trucks. The refuse market is one of the most stable markets in the industry and provides long-term shareholder value,” Milton said in a statement.

oh yeah totally, that's my specialty too! lol

I am an equipment OEM that happens to have most of all the large US refuse haulers as customers. I don't do anything related to garbage trucks but I know the business side of it very well. Here are some random ramblings:

- There are quite a few different refuse trucks, but the mostly useful ones will last about 7 years on average (eg. complex auto loaders that go curbside). Republic probably has about 18,000 trucks in total so expect them to replace UP TO 1/7 of that every year. So this is about at least 1 year supply of trucks.

- Haulers will have a bad time if COVID-19 continues longer, hauling volume is decreased by 20-50% in some places. Honest haulers will automatically cut billing due to decreased volume but the not so honest ones will keep billing until their customer defaults. I know for a fact because our business is suffering and the haulers have told us 1st hand. So it can be a stable business but new truck CapEx is highly dependent on the budget and performance of that hauler.

- Most likely what Nikola is providing is simply just a class 8 tractor. Those things aren't that complicated and Tesla Semi is a competitor.

- The biggest shareholder of Republic is Cascade Investment, LLC aka Bill Gates with like 30+%. Maybe the random ramblings from Elon on Twitter got to Billy G! And they wanted to buy something that's "not Tesla"?

- Republic regional manager bonuses are tied inversely how much they spend over monthly budget for maintenance (this is verified many times). You can imagine how much deferred spending on equipment happens. I bet the managers salivated on an electric truck for less maintenance expense so they got courted by every electric truck seller except Tesla. Probably because Tesla doesn't seem to be a corporation that tolerates corruption and bribing their customers. If Nikola trucks turn out to be a terrible business decision, they will just be parked for ages, little spent to fix them, and eventually gotten rid of...a la Tesla in the long game with their Semi, right?

 

[woodisgood]

Very interesting to see how far Tesla's arm reach. Also, interesting comment on the same page in the link:

"The key sentence here is this: "Xplora Technologies... focusing on smartwatches for kids". My guess is that this partnership will create a way for kids to use the robotaxi fleet on their own. Think about it. Parents who want to drive their kids to school with their Robo-Tesla. The car would need to unlock for the "right" person, which if it's a kid you can't guarantee they have a smartphone."

This is one of the possibilities that I am actually hoping this is about. Because for all the talk of people abandoning private cars etc., one of the most useful aspects of a private robotaxi for families would be not having to shlep kids around all day. Or rather, having an additional “family member” who could do so. This is honestly what I am personally looking most forward to with robotaxis (and being able to do curbside pickup of food or groceries or shopping).

And yes, it’s not a given that those kids would have smartphones, especially since that’s something many parents are trying to curb or delay. Watch still gives the benefits of GPS and emergency contact without the social media and apps a parent may not want or the kid may be too young for.

 

[wipster]

"fall asleep on Sunday nights?" Thought POI was for sleeping during the days! Oh wait....that must be House M.D. for the daytime viewing

Yes, but after Blue Bloods and that's only if Bones isn't on...

 

[Thekiwi]

Tesla China July Numbers:

Tesla China July NEV Production Surpasses SGMW & BYD, Model 3 > 2nd 3rd & 4th Places Combined

Troy posted these numbers on Aug 3rd.

 

[JustSaying]

OMG you’re right! I just did the math and that land will add ALMOST FIVE DOLLARS cost per vehicle produced over the next 20 years. They should have taken much more time to get that under $3.00!

Under GAAP , Land costs are not subject to depreciation/amortization (depletion yes) and accordingly will not add to per vehicle costs.
As a very rich person once told me , "I didn't overpay for that real estate ,I just bought too early"

 

[Beltsbear]

An outspoken Tesla critic and short-seller is suing Elon Musk, alleging he defamed him by saying the Tesla short 'almost killed' Tesla employees

He must be self funding or something. I am not a lawyer but he has no case. Elon could call him a lot of names with him following employees in the car.

 

[MP3Mike]

He must be self funding or something. I am not a lawyer but he has no case. Elon could call him a lot of names with him following employees in the car.

One of his lawyers ran a go-fund-me campaign to fund the lawsuit.

 

[Prunesquallor]

What is Max Headroom doing in that picture?

For the time, that was a pretty funny show.

 

[wipster]

I eagerly await widespread below average AI drivers!

Nikola...

 

[EVortex]

For the time, that was a pretty funny show.

And some of it has come true.

 

[tinm]

There is one concern that I can't shake regarding Robotaxi: it's the difference between imitation and understanding. You can get to 99% with imitation. I don't think you can get to 100. Elon mentioned during the Shanghai interview that AI still hasn't progressed very far in terms of understanding IIRC. Take the recent riots in many of our cities. Imagine that your granddaughter and a few of her friends were taking a RT to a bar late at night and stumbled into one of these riots. A driver would know to get them the hell out of there. What is the RT algo going to do? Does it have a databank of similar situations to draw from? No. Can it rely on some rules based decision to leave? No. It won't understand the danger. What if thieves block a road to steal from motorists? Will the computer know that it's OK to run somebody over if they are pointing a gun at you? No. So what is the solution to that? Geo-fencing around bad neighborhoods? Good luck with that solution.

So my concern is that we need AI that can do more than imitate of follow rules ... it's got to understand. Maybe Apple or Google or Amazon os some Chinese company don't have our data or our chip, but maybe that isn't what gets you over the hump. Maybe the answer is in the next generation neural net?

If you think I don't understand all this stuff you are correct. I don't really understand any modern technology. I don't trust myself to evaluate whether Elon can get across the goal line ... and if so, faster than everybody else. Yes, I could just trust him. I trust him a lot. Just not enough to have 40% of my net worth riding on this working. At the current 8%, if it triples in the next few years then great, if it gets cut in half then no big deal. (You'll appreciate the logic of that better when you're retired.)

I could just as easily be talking about all the things I love about TSLA. On other boards, where people don't understand all the wonderful things happening I regularly praise TSLA and Elon. But it's important to force yourself to critically examine your assumptions. Most on this board don't seem to want to do that. Easier to put someone on ignore than to consider their argument.

As soon as I saw the word “concern” and “Robotaxi” both appearing in the same opening sentence I knew you were in for some Disagrees. TMC can be an unreceptive place to anyone who dares to not stick to the perfect vision of glitch-free execution and untold wealth from the resulting trillion-plus valuation once the robos roll out. Just understand that there are others out here who agree with you that the rollout may very well be fraught with challenges and many if not most will be non-technology-related, and therefore boring to technologists in the company, and therefore likely to be overlooked by the company. I dare not say more.

 

[capster]

As soon as I saw the word “concern” and “Robotaxi” both appearing in the same opening sentence I knew you were in for some Disagrees. TMC can be an unreceptive place to anyone who dares to not stick to the perfect vision of glitch-free execution and untold wealth from the resulting trillion-plus valuation once the robos roll out. Just understand that there are others out here who agree with you that the rollout may very well be fraught with challenges and many if not most will be non-technology-related, and therefore boring to technologists in the company, and therefore likely to be overlooked by the company. I dare not say more.

Or, maybe people here see that while, yes, there are serious non-technical challenges too, they see these challenges as so dwarfed by the health/safety, security and societal benefits that they don’t get as exercised about these challenges as some seem to.