Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[woodisgood]

Regarding valuation, we know Tesla is going to be pumping out 2M vehicles/yr in 2022 when all in-progress factories have ramped fully. As @Steve m pointed out yesterday.

That’s good for a roughly 750B MC just on auto alone. When is it fair to give Tesla that MC? 1 yr before? 6 months? Or when it becomes obvious it’s happening with nothing standing in the way?

 

[Dangerous Fish]

TSLA is like that $2 downtown strip club; it can't get any shadier no matter how much stuff you throw at it.

$2? That sounds pretty classy compared to what I'm used to

 

[elasalle]

With SP rise, the longer S&P not announced, the longer Shorts are gonna stay away ....

 

[CorneliusXX]

424B2
Apple has more cash than some countries but needs more? Will Tesla follow suit with an offering as well now? (Maybe they already did with the suppressed prices before this price rise)

My understanding is that Apple raises debt as a tax dodge. They can leave their cash in Ireland and not pay US taxes on it while raising debt to pay dividends.

 

[woodisgood]

With SP rise, the longer S&P not announced, the longer Shorts are gonna stay away ....

That may be true, but I think this a little short attack right here which has quickly dropped us from ~1645 to 1625.

 

[StealthP3D]

That’s good for a roughly 750B MC just on auto alone. When is it fair to give Tesla that MC? 1 yr before? 6 months? Or when it becomes obvious it’s happening with nothing standing in the way?

It's not a matter of "when it's fair", it's a matter of how much people are willing to believe it will happen. This is why I consider TSLA under-valued right now. Because I think an exceptional outcome is much more likely than people are willing to pay for right now. But, if things keep going how they have been going, those people will never get a piece of this growing revenue stream.

Fairness has nothing to do with it.

 

[dl003]

$2? That sounds pretty classy compared to what I'm used to

You are in the good place now! Like what you see?

 

[StealthP3D]

That may be true, but I think this a little short attack right here which has quickly dropped us from ~1645 to 1625.

I know it's popular to call every downdraft a "short-attack" but that doesn't look like a short-attack to me. It's just profit taking and some people thinking it will go lower. That is a necessary part of going higher. In the end it all comes down to whether more people are willing to buy at a certain level or sell. That's all it is.

 

[Mo City]

I want Giga Austin renders Tesla!!!!

Maybe on 22Sep.

 

[Quesder]

Keep the beer cool in the barrel. The intraday high is still $1794.99 set a month ago on 2020 JUL 13.

1644 is where we camped the night before climbing

That may be true, but I think this a little short attack right here which has quickly dropped us from ~1645 to 1625.

not really , it’s macro

 

[woodisgood]

It's not a matter of "when it's fair", it's a matter of how much people are willing to believe it will happen. This is why I consider TSLA under-valued right now. Because I think an exceptional outcome is much more likely than people are willing to pay for right now. But, if things keep going how they have been going, those people will never get a piece of this growing revenue stream.

Fairness has nothing to do with it.

Apologies, I often don’t choose my words carefully in forum posts. I meant “reasonable.”

 

[mekberg]

It's not a matter of "when it's fair", it's a matter of how much people are willing to believe it will happen. This is why I consider TSLA under-valued right now. Because I think an exceptional outcome is much more likely than people are willing to pay for right now. But, if things keep going how they have been going, those people will never get a piece of this growing revenue stream.

Fairness has nothing to do with it.

Precisely.

Them: "TSLA is too expensive!" (read, they think market cap is too high)

Us: "Okay, but, just imagine X, Y, Z, and probably many other things we aren't even thinking about."

Them: <blank stares>

You can lead a horse to water...

 

[kengchang]

From Interactive Broker

Corp Action : Forward Split

 

[dl003]

macros are sliding so this is probably not TSLA specifics.

 

[woodisgood]

I know it's popular to call every downdraft a "short-attack" but that doesn't look like a short-attack to me. It's just profit taking and some people thinking it will go lower. That is a necessary part of going higher. In the end it all comes down to whether more people are willing to buy at a certain level or sell. That's all it is.

I follow the TSLA thread on Stocktwits...and while it is mostly garbage full of traders, pumpers, hedge fund bots, etc. it does tend to give an idea of some moment-to-moment sentiment. There were a number of posters there supposedly initiating short positions at the time of the drop - whether that was actually what led to the drop is anybody’s guess. But my post was in response to @elasalle who was suggesting shorters might stay away until s&p. That would be a good idea for them but I don’t think they’re going to.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

macros are sliding so this is probably not TSLA specifics.

TSLA still holding strong despite the sliding macros...good sign IMHO.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

 

[S3XY]

I don't get the comparison to VW (and especially Ford). How can you compare a business with huge rapid growth potential to businesses that are actually shrinking as far as the eye can see? If you assume Elon is going to continue to innovate to make electric cars constantly cheaper (and therefore the standard), and use VW's own projections for the number of EV's they hope to produce in 5 and 10 years, you will see a massive shift from VW sales to Tesla sales.

Comparing the valuations of two companies with such different probable outcomes simply makes no sense.

Not to mention VW's energy business.

 

[StealthP3D]

Apologies, I often don’t choose my words carefully in forum posts. I meant “reasonable.”

In this context the two words are as good as interchangeable. Because "reasonable" is a value judgement just as "fair" is. There is no answer, as I said, it depends upon how likely you think a great outcome is (and how great that outcome will be). There is certainly plenty of room for reasonable disagreement here, you just have to decide whether you want a piece of the pie depending on how likely a positive scenario is.

Some people who think they understand Tesla could feel "reasonable" while valuing it at $250. Personally, I think I know more than they do and I don't find that "reasonable" at all. They do. So what? That's their right and they won't own the revenue stream as I will.

Some people wouldn't sell tomorrow at $5,000, I probably would. $250 to $5,000 is a twenty fold difference. What's reasonable? Only those willing to put real money on the line get a vote. Currently the "vote" stands at $1,627. It can and will go up or down from there. I know it sounds like I'm stating the obvious (and I am) but it needs to be said. There is no "reasonable" when the potential outcomes have such a wide range. Because no one can see the future. But those who are best at figuring out what the future looks like, end up with the most money.

I'm confident the more bullish TSLA investors will end up with more money than the more doubtful ones. Time will tell.

 

[Curt Renz]

With SP rise, the longer S&P not announced, the longer Shorts are gonna stay away ....

That may be true, but I think this a little short attack right here which has quickly dropped us from ~1645 to 1625.

Even if typical shorts may be quiet, hedge funds and market makers could still temporarily initiate manipulative short positions. In turn those might trigger cascades of stop limits set by weak longs (mainly day-traders).

Tomorrow is a weekly options expiration day, with much call option interest at $1650. The call writers (mainly HF & MM) would want to keep a lid there to protect their call premiums. On Monday they could cover any short positions set up today or tomorrow. Even if the share price manipulation loses, they would expect that to be more than made up in call premiums kept. Of course such plans could go awry.

Meanwhile, Wall Street may want to cap TSLA until S&P 500 related funds can buy. If a subsequent offering of shares is involved, the investment banks would like the price to be attractive for all potential buyers. The index funds and investment banks are customers of S&P Global. In regard to the date for inclusion of TSLA in the S&P 500, the selection committee may lend an ear to the needs of their firm's customers.