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Anyone have an approximation of when Tesla will cross 10 billion km of real world driving?

Elon Musk @elonmusk

Replying to
@flcnhvy @ICannot_Enough and @Tesla
This is out of our hands, so hard to predict. Maybe on order of 10 billion km of real world driving will be enough to convince regulators.
3:10 PM · Aug 15, 2020·Twitter for iPhone

I would think that the count doesn't start until feature complete FSD is released. So it's going to be a while. (For example, you can't count the current miles as the software that is going to be released in the next few months is supposed to be a complete re-write.)
 
@StealthP3D responded and he's right. If you're buying options, your counterparty (typically MMs) hedges the risk buying or selling shares. No one in their right mind for instance would sell you calls and remain unhedged. Such people quickly go out of business.

When you take profits by selling the calls, the MM buys back the calls and sells off stock hedging it.

I understand the process of a MM buying back a call option on a Friday afternoon and then no longer needing the stock hedge. Selling the hedge would place downward pressure on the stock price, of this I agree.

How then do you account for the consistent closing of the stock price very near the price that so closely aligns with the strike price of the most popular call option expiring that week that is within the market's ability to reach by end of trading on Friday? For example, the market wasn't going to be able to reach 1700 in the final hours of Friday afternoon (without big news or explosive macro climb). The 1650 strike stood as the most abundant call option expiring on Friday that the market could easily reach, and TSLA closed at 1650.71. What is the mechanism in your theory that brings the stock price so close to the strike price of the most popular expiring call option? Friday wasn't really the exception. It is more the norm. Thx.
 
Anyone have an approximation of when Tesla will cross 10 billion km of real world driving?

1Bil miles by end of 11/2018: Tesla vehicles have racked up one billion miles driven on Autopilot.

3Bil miles (added another twice as much) by 4/2020: Tesla drops a bunch of new Autopilot data, 3 billion miles and more - Electrek

So about 16 months to add twice as much as the amount in Apr 2020, which would be 3bil + 6bil = 9bil miles by 8/2021. So @MikeAtkinson is correct, definitely sounds doable by end of 2021 if all autopilot miles are included, not just feature-complete miles.

EDIT: I made a mistake. This calculation is for 10 billion MILES, not km.
 
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The point is largely moot, no one thinks regulators are convinced by science when making decisions. Especially in America.

Ultimately, government agencies are dominated by “regulatory capture.” The insurance industry is based on hard actuarial science. The lobbyists of the insurance industry will drive legislative approval the moment the science proves the financial basis for autonomous driving. Insurance rates for human driving will go up and vice versa.
 
Maybe we are missing the hint here. He is indicating he now wants to build one - previously he was always hinting "someday maybe" when batteries get better.

People have mentioned batteries need to be 400 - 500 Wh / kg to do EVTOL.

Is Musk signaling that Tesla now has capability to produce batteries with this energy density? That would be at least a 50% increase from those produced now.

My lord. 38 days until Battery Day.


Remember at a presentation someone asked about making a new Roadster. He said essentially “awww man I’d love to work on something like that but we need to make the bread and butter products first”. Not too long after we saw the Roadster 2 unveiling.

I truly think we’ll see, at the very least a design, of a VTOL at battery day. It was always battery tech that was holding it back. He’s always wanted to do it. He says it will be the most exciting day in Tesla’s history. Yes figuring out how not to be battery constrained is incredibly important....but it’s not viscerally exciting.

Plaid S and “one more thing” EVTOL prototype is my guess.
 
Well first you'll show us your design for a small nuclear reactor before we'll consider giving you any money.

Second you don't need to "turn off" a nuclear reactor.
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Now give me my millions....:)Please.....and ill give you an exclusive instagram story tour of my wine cellar packed with organic foods after i build it with shareholders $$ on my 200 acre ranch. :rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:
 
OK, I'm still like 100 posts behind so maybe someone else has smacked down this disinformation already but here are facts from personal experience: In the summer of 2011 I short Eastman Chemical (EMN). When they paid cash dividends my account was debited the amount of the cash dividend on the payment date. EMN declared a 2:1 split which was in the form of a stock dividend that took place in October that year. On the ex-dividend date of the split my account simply showed that I was short twice as many shares as the previous day (at ~ half the price). I took no action whatsoever. I certainly didn't cover - if I had it would have been profitable but I was dumb and managed to keep holding until I closed at a loss. This was in a TD Ameritrade account. Not only did I not have to take any kind of action, but I also don't remember the broker even sending me any kind of message about my position before or after.

Other than the rally that's happened, this is a nothing burger for everyone including the shorts, option holders etc.

The split will create a little actual buying pressure because not everyone has access to fractional shares. My wife's 401k for example doesn't have fractional shares and since there is a fixed contribution limit each year, it can't get fully invested in TSLA since they must be purchased in integer shares. Right now there is just under $700 of cash in that account which wasn't enough to buy another share earlier this year when the contribution was made. After the split, chances are that 1 or 2 shares will be purchased. Next years contributions will also be much more close to fully invested in TSLA than if it hadn't split since 7000/1500 has a large remainder.

What will be positive for TSLA is that it will look cheap again. I can see it go from 330 to 370 a lot easier than from 1650 to 1850, even though these price movements are identical.
 
What may be positive for TSLA is that it will look cheap again. I can see it go from 330 to 370 a lot easier than from 1650 to 1850, even though these price movements are identical.
I’m going to have to switch my charts to % for a while.
 
My brother read somewhere, probably at WSB on Reddit, that the news of the split was already on Tesla’s IR site on Tuesday before closing and that someone bought calls 1600 8/14 for $0.10 (which were worth $50 at closing if kept). Any truth in that first part about the news being on the site before it hit the media AH?
Highly doubtful and Elon's favorite charity, the SEC would be knocking on doors (although they do tend to move a little slow)
 
C'mon guys. It's pretty clear that if you are in the US there is nothing you have to do.

Potentially you are in trouble if you are short but no one here is, right? RIGHT?

The only question is if there will be any tax issues for investors in other countries. Depending on country and what broker you are using. By logic there shouldn't be as all new shares are only worth $0.01 (or something) each. The potential problem is that not everyone (including me) trusts our countries taxlaws and/or that our brokers aren't too dumb to have this part figured out.
 
Here's a piece from Zach Shahan of CleanTechnica regarding talking to Elon about the engineering of autopilot. Something a bit different.

In two conversations with Elon that I had more recently, he indicated that there are actually around 300 engineers working on the Autopilot team — “just under 200 on the software side and a little over 100 on the chip design side.” So, there are several different directors in the Autopilot program that oversee hundreds of other Autopilot staff.

Even that is perhaps not the best way to explain the breadth and depth of the team, though. As we chatted a bit about the software team, it became clear that these ~200 software engineers could probably get a job anywhere they wanted. “No one is really their ‘boss,’” Elon said.
 
Finally created an account... mostly so I could use the ignore button and reduce some of the "noise" on the thread. Very thankful to you all for being a primary source of aggregated information on Tesla.

I thought it was strange that battery day couldn't just be streamed online. Elon kept insisting there was a lot to see and that he wanted people to be there which was why it kept being delayed. For the batteries I couldn't think of why people would have to be there unless there was a "you gotta see it to believe it" product reveal. The consensus is plaid S and X and I hopefully imagined semis at the battery day as well.

However after reading ZeApelido's post I had a thought: could Elon be unveiling a prototype eVTOL using cutting edge 500 wh / kg batteries? A prototype that will actually fly and be able to transport people? That would be neat.

Maybe we are missing the hint here. He is indicating he now wants to build one - previously he was always hinting "someday maybe" when batteries get better.

People have mentioned batteries need to be 400 - 500 Wh / kg to do EVTOL.

Is Musk signaling that Tesla now has capability to produce batteries with this energy density? That would be at least a 50% increase from those produced now.

My lord. 38 days until Battery Day.
 
Ha! For me it was $7200 more! On June 19th I traded in a 2013 S85 for a 2020 S LR+ costing like $16K less (tax incl), and they gave me $7200 higher than they’d quoted me in Feb. My car on trade in day had 120K mi.
My guess, if the current autopilot miles count then end of next year, if not then 3 months later.

They don't count until it's on the new neural networks(s)