Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[lafrisbee]

Sounds like you have good friends. My friends just think I’m lucky. That’s how they rationalize it to themselves. I always tell them back that maybe I’m just good at seeing market trends and I saw Tesla’s future product roadmap and assigned a PE ratio to that.

As a coach I instilled in my players that being in shape (money to you) and skilled (market understanding to you) gives them the ability to properly execute when the opportunity presents itself. And that is what luck is.
I also told them that it is better to be lucky than good...because a good team will always lose to the "lucky" team.

OT
And I instructed them to never refer to a contest as one in which they "beat" the other team...except in cases where the final score was always a zero for the opponent, and greater than 5 goals for us.
Lastly, On Award night I would hand out fruit instead of trophies. "And the recipient of the Banana for best defensive shutdown of an opposing Striker goes to..."
The symbolism was not lost on them.

 

[lafrisbee]

Even with the 5:1 split coming up, TSLA will still have less than 1B shares out. Currently TSLA has 2B shares authorized. If they had done a 10:1 stock dividend, I think that would have come uncomfortably close to the amount of shares authorized. I could be wrong, but I believe it takes a shareholder vote to approve the authorization of additional shares. If so, I believe additional authorized shares will be done with next proxy. to allow for additional (dividend) splits.

It does indeed require shareholders vote. I unfortunately attended my first shareholders' meeting (and only) in which I voted for an increase in the number of shares. And that ended very very badly.

 

[StealthP3D]

But not this time when I bought these 4% shares at 1450 before 7/13.
Man, I thought that was god move, it went to $1794, then $16xx, and then $1369. That's why I couldn't hold anymore and sold at $1650.

Well, every good rally needs a few sacrificial lambs.

So thank you for your service!

 

[Zaxxon]

How quaint is this image from checks notes Friday?

 

[Prunesquallor]

What do you think about the price staying $120 above the upper BB?

It’ll catch up.

 

[Nocturnal]

Remember how much $750/share seemed? Almost inconceivable. Unless you were following the story closely enough that you understood battery electric cars and energy storage will soon be bigger than most people understand. This is just the market catching up with that thinking.

I doubt I'm alone in this but as I've mentioned before, one of the biggest doubts in my head about Tesla's future has nothing to do with the company, but with myself. If the Super-Bullish folks are right (5-10k, let alone Ark's golden goose at 22k), then I'll be far wealthier at a far younger age than I thought possible. Technically that's already the case but it's not enough for me to retire in the standard of living that I want yet so it doesn't feel real. Being aware of this is allowing me to ignore it.

 

[Artful Dodger]

ATH for Tesla

Also, Death Valley may have had the hottest temperature ever recorded on Earth today...

'Highest temperature on Earth' recorded in US

 

[Quesder]

I got my dad to buy TSLA in April around 650. I felt bad because then it went down to 350. Bad that he could have gotten it lower. Never once did I doubt he would make a lot of money long term.

Surprised he did because he thought the CT looked rediculous.

lie. Oh oh, too rude.
No, I mean, the $350 price was in March, in April it already started to back up. So the time in the story must have something wrong.
Anyway, congratulations to you and your dad!

 

[Prunesquallor]

I was perusing little-used menu items on E*Trade today and found an offering which would essentially pay you “rent” if you loaned out “Hard-to-Borrow” stocks. I assume these are used for short-selling, but I have never heard of a fee paid to the owner for the privilege.

It sounds like there are all kinds of guarantees in place allowing the owner to sell on demand. Seems like potential income for long-term-holders, but there’s the whole encouraging short sellers aspect. I’d be interested in y’all’s opinions.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I doubt I'm alone in this but as I've mentioned before, one of the biggest doubts in my head about Tesla's future has nothing to do with the company, but with myself. If the Super-Bullish folks are right (5-10k, let alone Ark's golden goose at 22k), then I'll be far wealthier at a far younger age than I thought possible. Technically that's already the case but it's not enough for me to retire in the standard of living that I want yet so it doesn't feel real. Being aware of this is allowing me to ignore it.

My target to start selling in tranches starts in 4-5k range with only selling about 7-8% per year to minimize paying higher taxes. It'll probably take me a good 6-7 years to sell off everything using this strategy. So if the stock continues to climb higher after 5k share price(pre split), I'm benefiting from the remaining shares continuing to appreciate while I get to use some of the funds to start my retirement lifestyle.

The only thing that's possibly thrown some of this strategy into question is the options for the company I work for are going to be a lot more valuable than I originally thought they would be. So I will definitely stick around for 3-4 more years to collect all of those options. I figured Tesla would be at least 4-5k at that point. But it's looking like the market is finally starting to value Tesla properly so we could hit that threshold in 1-2 years. The end result is I could end up having about 3-4X what I figured I would need for the lifestyle I wanted to live the moment I enter retirement in like 3-4 years. I might have to "up" the lavishness of my retirement lifestyle lol.....(not really, I'll probably give quite a bit to family to set them for life and donate some at various wildlife refugee/conservations that I want to volunteer at around the world(in retirement).

 

[lafrisbee]

Not a golf player, but I did stay at a Death Valley hotel some years ago. In two cars, a family group was making a tour of scenery, and not wanting to miss the fabulous sunset at Painted Rock or whatever it's called, we got caught out in the sudden darkness and lost our way to the hotel. I drove the lead car, and knew it had to be quite close -- but was it to the left or to the right at the T junction? Stopped by the road side to confer with the others. Opened car door -- and STEPPED RIGHT INTO THE ONE, SINGULAR WATER PUDDLE IN THE ENTIRE f'n DESERT! !11 !

Now you all know why I never play golf. There are water traps all over them courts.

(On the flip side, we went from a heavy snowfall in the early morning to scorching heat around lunch time, and I stood in a spot where (had I had eyes on both sides of my head) I could see -- at the same time -- the highest spot in the state AND the lowest spot on Earth. So there's that.)

PS The hotel must have been very nice, 110 or so years earlier. Plumbing was showing its age.

No matter how hot the desert a coyote has still got to piss (it takes a good while for dry sand to absorb liquid).

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I am still back at post 192000. the group is discussing Jonas. I saw the video. And well I like to believe I can read at the second level and above.
Jonas allows his slip to show. By that I mean he gives a response which provides more information and in a unique way compared to what the other person was discussing.
He defended his low price by saying something along the lines of, "If I released an outlook where TESLA does all these amazing numbers of production you all would tear me apart even worse."
You could hear it in his voice, he was actually thinking that Tesla can. He didn't scoff at Tesla's ability to do those lefty numbers. He scoffed at the reporters for how he would be seen for releasing a higher stock price goal (PT?). And I now see him more clearly. He's looking at a segment of the investing world and adjusting his message to what they will think of the message. He is not reporting the facts, and he is well aware of it. He is providing a service in which he coaxes and coddles his market.

Think you have been reading too many of Elon's cryptic tweets and applying it to this clown

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I got my dad to buy TSLA in April around 650. I felt bad because then it went down to 350. Bad that he could have gotten it lower. Never once did I doubt he would make a lot of money long term.

Surprised he did because he thought the CT looked rediculous.

and today...he placed an order for one with all the GAINZZ!!!

 

[M|S|M MYP]

It'll pass. I just bought TSLA 8 months ago. I used to feel quite nauseous when it went up, especially that first rocket ride to around $980 from in the $700's.
Today's a mild day. At least you can hang your hat on something causing it to rise this time.

At least you can hang your hat on something causing it to rise this time.

Dunno how to interpret this.....

 

[OrthoSurg]

Wow, couldn’t access my phone for 5 hours straight at work today. When I looked at the close price, I was $400 poorer. Had promised a Nintendo Switch to my kid if it got higher than $1700 when I bought at $1550 pre-Earning calls.

 

[Opus BC fan]

There will come a time when it makes sense to sell the shares of TSLA we now own

(and personally, I am thinking not in my lifetime. It is the best of both worlds, investing in good and getting a nice return)

 

[Unpilot]

No, it’s because people think a stock moving from $400 to $800 is a move of only $400 vs $2,000 to $4,000 which is a move of $2,000.

$400 being way smaller than $2000 is what their brains see instead of seeing that both moves are exactly the same as a percentage.

That’s just how a lot of people ‘work’.

This stock split is intended to help the little guy be able to invest. I would argue that a lot of these little guys have had years to invest and even at lower prices than the stock will be once the split occurs. I would argue they aren’t very sophisticated investors and thus susceptible to the psychology.

But here’s the thing; big, sophisticated investors who do move the market must also be susceptible to the psychology because we often talk about psychological TSLA SP barriers here. The $420 funding secured barrier, the $1,000 barrier, Sparta, the selling on round numbers thus we specifically don’t sell on round numbers to avoid selling on round numbers, the SP that makes Tesla worth $150B and starts the clock for Elon Musk’s pay day, or the SP that makes TSLA too expensive for S&P funds to purchase etc... Quite literally TA is number psychology; Bollinger Bands, if the stock rises above this number or falls below that one such and such will happen...

The little guy can’t and doesn’t move the market so all these psychology barriers are manufactured by people who inherently and logically should know the numbers mean nothing, but clearly the numbers do because they ‘react’ to them.

Remember how close TSLA got to $1800 but didn’t? Well, that was a prime example of people sell on round numbers so we don’t sell on round numbers to avoid selling on round numbers.

And who exactly moved TSLA, and AAPL for that matter, on news of a stock split that’s supposed to be a nothing burger, supposed to mean nothing to anything? It wasn’t the little retail investor who can’t afford to buy TSLA at $13whatevertheSPwasatwhentheannouncementwasmade and certainly can’t suddenly afford it at $1650.71.

Logically I know my 5xs shares won’t be worth more, but reality - hell, yes, $400-$800 will happen faster than $2000-$4000 because psychology has already and will continue to accelerate SP appreciation.

So what your saying is it works like this.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

I was perusing little-used menu items on E*Trade today and found an offering which would essentially pay you “rent” if you loaned out “Hard-to-Borrow” stocks. I assume these are used for short-selling, but I have never heard of a fee paid to the owner for the privilege.

It sounds like there are all kinds of guarantees in place allowing the owner to sell on demand. Seems like potential income for long-term-holders, but there’s the whole encouraging short sellers aspect. I’d be interested in y’all’s opinions.

It's exactly as you thought. Different brokerages have different names for their programs, but they're all essentially the same (differing by how much of the short's borrowing fee that you get a cut of). It was nice to have profited from some short's attempt to fight the windmill, but the opportunities don't last. My TSLA shares haven't been borrowed in over 3 years. Plus, I'm not sure if my shares aren't already being loaned out without my consent, since you have to have a margin account to participate in these programs.

 

[MP3Mike]

Plus, I'm not sure if my shares aren't already being loaned out without my consent, since you have to have a margin account to participate in these programs.

At E*TRADE you don't need a margin account to participate in their FPL, Fully Paid Lending, program. But in the last three months I think I made all of about 10 cents from a few TSLA shares being lent for a couple days.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Also @Dan Detweiler . Not sure if he left when Karen and FC did.

I'm still around. Still have my stock. Still have my car. Just nothing much to add.

Dan