Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[perwis]

Woot! $2,001.83.


But don’t get too giddy.


Perhaps he is referring to a Population bottleneck - Wikipedia

No, not really but not totally unrelated.

The Great filter is the hypothesis that intelligent civilizations will not survive for very long after they have discovered technology. Thereby explaining the great silence in the universe. (The Fermi Paradox)

Similar ideas seem to be important for Elon’s drive to accelerate good technology in order to pass the Great Filter. Tesla, SpaceX and Neurolink are directly related of course.M Hence the pinned tweet I guess.

In any case, it is perhaps suitable to use this moment after a eventful day to get some perspective on things.

For a really deep, smart, dive into similar ideas I recommend this video by a card-carrying astrophysics/astrobiologist David Kipping explaining his latest peer-reviewed paper on the likelihood that we are alone in the universe (using Bayesian probability theory). Prof Kipping argues that the likelihood might be much greater than what even very smart people assume.

Also a surprisingly well-produced video for being from an academic. Highly recommended.

 

[StealthP3D]

Is there any artistic soul who can design a cool yet subtle Teslanaire sticker we can slap on the cars?

I recommend not telling people that your economic status has recently changed dramatically, not on your car and not face-to-face.

I posted this when the share price was $569 and it is just as relevant now:

I had to deal with "sudden wealth syndrome" early in my life with MSFT, SBUX and (especially) QCOM. Although it was much more dramatic than anything I see here (short of those who put oversized bets on highly leveraged TSLA options last year).

My biggest advice, don't do much differently, especially at first. Sure, if you are living in a dump and your roof leaks and you're driving a beater, fix those things. But don't go overboard. The key is to enjoy life. And we have plenty of tales of people who won the lottery, $10 million and above, the amount to the upside of that doesn't matter, they still blew through it very fast while simultaneously having a huge falling out with family and friends and sometimes ending up with alcohol or drug problems. So, if you only have $2-$4 million it can happen just as fast. Remember, you still have to pay cap gain taxes on any sales so plan for that if you want to sell some to rebalance or upgrade things in your life.

Being a "millionaire" ain't what it used to be. The fact of the matter is, $10 million is the new $millionaire.

Also, don't tell people. The desire to have someone to relate to about all this is strong but it's almost always a mistake to let people know how much your financial position has changed. And it really shouldn't matter so you shouldn't tell them.

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable

 

[Mo City]

Y'all remember the day $TSLA announced the split AH and the SP was at $1374? Yeah....me neither

+45.7% since.

 

[Zythryn]

Personally, I'd go for vanity plates with THXELON or similar

Would unfortunately be very much frowned upon in my culture, but I'm sure some of you Americans could get away with it!

Or perhaps something a little less straight forward?

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I recommend not telling people that your economic status has recently changed dramatically, not on your car and not face-to-face.

I posted this when the share price was $569 and it is just as relevant now:



Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable

Does this apply to your wife as well? j/k....good advice...i highly recommend this as well.

 

[kanweg]

I should have invested in emojis. The serpent and saxophone combo is worth 23 B in marketcap.

 

[Mokuzai]

I recommend not telling people that your economic status has recently changed dramatically, not on your car and not face-to-face.

I posted this when the share price was $569 and it is just as relevant now:



Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable

Great advice...but as soon some of us here pick up a roadster it'll be hard to hide.

 

[Beezer_9]

I have more money coming any day now. Any suggestions when I should unload it would be greatly appreciated.

 

[mrmage]

I dunno. ARK's best "no autonomy" case was $3200 at the end of 2024. I have a hard time thinking future autonomy is baked into today's SP. If it's not, that means "only" a 60% SP increase in the next 4½ years to hit the most optimistic target.

It seems either 1) ARK estimate was way too low, or 2) we're a bit ahead schedule

Well ahead of schedule IMO but the market always prices in advance. Battery day is probably baked in, but not autonomy.

However, if FSD can occasionally drive from home to office without interventions, the market will start pricing in robotaxies. That will create another massive surge in the SP, followed by a long period waiting for FSD to reach four or five 9s. Crazy to think it might start this year if EM isn't being overly optimistic about the rewrite.

 

[mejojo]

I recommend not telling people that your economic status has recently changed dramatically, not on your car and not face-to-face.

I was hoping the subtle part would be like secret code amongst us. Perhaps that's not possible?

 

[Mich]

I was hoping the subtle part would be like secret code amongst us. Perhaps that's not possible?

This is a public forum...

 

[StealthP3D]

Great advice...but as soon some of us here pick up a roadster it'll be hard to hide.

Obviously, people can know your lifestyle - that cannot be hidden. But lifestyle does not equal wealth. If you live below your actual means, not only will you be happier and more secure in life, but no one will have to know your true wealth.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Waiting for 2:15pm PST:

 

[Drumheller]

I was hoping the subtle part would be like secret code amongst us. Perhaps that's not possible?

I'm not going to put a bumper sticker on my tesla. If I did, Camacho 2020 would be first.

 

[avoigt]

Any source for this that's public? would be an interesting read

Sure, here is the short version

 

[humbaba]

Well ahead of schedule IMO but the market always prices in advance. Battery day is probably baked in, but not autonomy.

However, if FSD can occasionally drive from home to office without interventions, the market will start pricing in robotaxies. That will create another massive surge in the SP, followed by a long period waiting for FSD to reach four or five 9s. Crazy to think it might start this year if EM isn't being overly optimistic about the rewrite.

...and don't forget Tesla Energy which ARK is not including. While $TSLA is getting close to ARK's non-autonomy valuation I believe there is still room for growth

 

[Mo City]

Does this apply to your wife as well? j/k....good advice...i highly recommend this as well.

I've applied this to my wife, no kidding.

Yesterday, she brought up the subject of me retiring and I said I might. For some reason that escapes me, it didn't pique her curiosity enough to ask me if the IRA has grown.

I might delay surprising her with the Model Y until next year (could end up being a Model S by then).

 

[HG Wells]

I was hoping the subtle part would be like secret code amongst us. Perhaps that's not possible?

Perhaps a secret handshake ?

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I've applied this to my wife, no kidding.

Yesterday, she brought up the subject of me retiring and I said I might. For some reason that escapes me, it didn't pique her curiosity enough to ask me if the IRA has grown.

I might delay surprising her with the Model Y until next year (could end up being a Model S by then).

Yesterday, she brought up the subject of me retiring - Tons of red flags when a sentence begins with that subject from your wife

 

[jerry33]

Yesterday, she brought up the subject of me retiring - Tons of red flags when a sentence begins with that subject from your wife

The response is: "Oh, are you getting a big raise?"