Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Jack6591]

The "general public" does not own stock. Those who do own any significant amount of stock are not quite that stupid.

The run-up of 50% since the split makes no fundamental sense. There wasn't anybody, even the most bullish here, who were saying before the split was announced that the stock should be 50% (or even 20%) higher by the end of August. There was much speculation about how high it could go upon S&P 500 inclusion, but that is yet to come. Battery day is yet to come. So whatever has caused it to go up 50%, perhaps fear on the part of the shorts or some mysterious accounting related to the split that may screw those with naked shorts, it all goes away on August 31st. My guess is that this will become clear, and this coming week will see the last of this mystery rise, with only the last stragglers participating so fairly muted. And then the next week will be down, maybe one third of what the final split rise turns out to be after the coming week. Maybe even down hard on the 28th in anticipation.

So back to 1750 or so by September 4? Of course all bets are off if S&P 500 inclusion is announced. So that wild card will prevent the stock from falling too far. But I think the week starting August 31 is likely to be rather tricky for traders.

I expect I'll write a few puts for fun this coming week, and then not play the week after. And perhaps even turn some calls into a bull spread to protect my gains.

Those that trade daily, weekly or even quarter to quarter are for more intrepid than myself. I have always limited my analysis to LEAPS and the accumulation of shares. Tesla’s energy storage married to renewable power will act like a simple machine. Just as a lever or a block and tackle multiplies mechanical advantage — tesla’s technology will multiply energy advantage.

The cash cow of American electric utilities is “Demand Charging.” Commercial customers are are billed for momentary surges in power consumption; typically based on 15-minute intervals. This billing is based upon the necessity to have generation, transmission, and distribution equipment, at the ready, to meet momentary power requirements. Intelligent energy storage will allow customers to power their own energy surge requirements defeating the utility business model.

While the specifics of “Battery Day” remain cloaked in secrecy; I see the multiplying of energy advantage as foretelling the disruption of the electric utility industry. Tesla has already disrupted the automotive industry, evident in the billions being spent by worldwide car manufacturers.

The utility industry is far less agile than the automotive industry. Theirs is bureaucracy entrenched into the earth — their feet cemented. They are indeed headlighted deer. Even if they see the car coming, they will be incapable of moving.

Experienced EV owners realize that the static charge of their cars as an untapped energy asset. The burgeoning fleet of Starlink satellites will connect to the terrestrial grid of Tesla Superchargers; giving Tesla the ability to monitor power flows worldwide. Tesla’s technology evolution will be a tsunami of disruption.

Tesla is not a car company, nor a tech company. Tesla is an “Energy Innovation” company.

In a clear and deliberate voice, Tesla is undervalued.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Wouldn't call q2 a blowout for everyone. What was the first batch of FUD after earnings? Shenanigans with EV credits was the only way Tesla could be profitable. Q1 was the same, so to some, it looked like Tesla was brute forcing their way into S&P with accounting tricks. I was one who didn't think Tesla sp was going to sustain until q3 knock out that narrative.

Actual investors and funds don't care or even listen to the FUD that got spread after Q1 and Q2 earnings and were buying the consoldation/sell offs each time. It's all for show while big whales are buying. Q1 and Q2 earnings had huge underlining progress in the core business.

Often after Q1 earnings when I encountered people talking about the credits in Q1, I would ask them......if you take away the credits, tesla still improved profitably while delivering less vehicles than Q2 2019......so how did that happen?"

Of course the answer is the core business had turned a corner. But that won't be obvious to the general investor community until Q3. But there's enough big whales out there that do get it.

I still think anticipation for Q3 P/D will support the current share price on any sell offs. We'll start to see some very obvious signs of Q3 in 2 weeks when Aug delivery numbers come out of China along with registration numbers starting to flood in from Europe

 

[kbM3]

Watch from 27:20 to 27:45, that's the relevant bit.

The 800 million vehicles is the total automotive market. He talks about OEMs' plans afterwards, and mentions they have plans to build EVs for 10% of that market: 80 million EVs, leaving 90% of the market open for Tesla.

Oops. You were right. I didn’t read your original post closely enough and thought you were referencing the total addressable market.

I’m not super crazy about Rob’s point, merely because the 400M total addressable market over the next 5 years is pretty much unavailable. Even if Tesla somehow grew at 100% / year, they could only capture:
2021 : 1M
2022: 2M
2023: 4M
2024: 8M
2025: 16M
So 31M / 400M = 7.75% of the market even if the could achieve double their already hyper aggressive growth rate goal of 50% / year.
So Tesla can’t capture even 8% of the TAM in the 1st 5 years under the very rosiest assumption (unless robo-taxi reduces total vehicular sales). EVs just won’t make a dent. 2025-2030 is where things really get interesting and Tesla should capture a respectable percentage of the TAM.

 

[OrthoSurg]

TSLA stock is growing like the number of COVID19 cases in a country where everybody is kissing each other Woodstock-style

 

[MC3OZ]

Oops. You were right. I didn’t read your original post closely enough and thought you were referencing the total addressable market.

I’m not super crazy about Rob’s point, merely because the 400M total addressable market over the next 5 years is pretty much unavailable. Even if Tesla somehow grew at 100% / year, they could only capture:
2021 : 1M
2022: 2M
2023: 4M
2024: 8M
2025: 16M
So 31M / 400M = 7.75% of the market even if the could achieve double their already hyper aggressive growth rate goal of 50% / year.
So Tesla can’t capture even 8% of the TAM in the 1st 5 years under the very rosiest assumption (unless robo-taxi reduces total vehicular sales). EVs just won’t make a dent. 2025-2030 is where things really get interesting and Tesla should capture a respectable percentage of the TAM.

This is why we may hit a point where demand for EVs outstrips supply..

If Tesla is say 16M EVs in 2025 all other car makers combined might be 16-32M at best... by 2025 most new car buyers might want an EV, and many may be prepared to wait for one...

Out of all car makers Battery Day should reveal Tesla is currently best placed to grow EV production rapidly. .but 16M by 2025 is a stretch for Tesla, and I wonder how other car makers will go, I suspect not well for many of them.

Tesla growing at this rate will invalidate the myth that other car makers have plenty of time.

 

[CaliBear1]

I didn't see any renders of the rear. But I can certainly use my imagination and apply the DNA of this sweet booty to a refreshed S!

Nice. Is there a back end version of that rendering too?

 

[CaliBear1]

I bought my Tesla Performance Model 3 soon after the lease on my 2015 BMW 335is convertible ended. The difference was stunning. BMW engineering, performance and style ruled the last half of the 20th Century, but the 21st Century clearly belongs to Tesla and EVs.

Oh i contemplated that for days but I think a plaid X or S will take at least a year to appear in Europe. Can’t stand my BMW 3series anymore, in need of a decent car!

 

[TSLA Pilot]

I doubt that most here are investors. Most of the chatter is about day to day moves and various gambles. Me, I'm mainly an investor, but usually via options for leverage, so things expire and I close out one position and open another fairly regularly. And in addition to my core position I am always fooling around at the edges for amusement.


No, it's never all that far removed from gambling. There are probabilities, and you can win or lose. And the market can stay irrational....

If I had just held on to all those AAPL shares I had when I retired almost ten years ago (and never touched TSLA), I think my portfolio would be about double what it is now. Of course it's hard to normalize for money taken out to live on, and taxes paid and such so that that's a rough approximation. But I would have missed out on a lot of fun. And I never would have bought a Model S (too expensive).


No, that's wonderful. It's true of investors in every long term successful stock. Being one of them is having a cool story to tell.


And I've bought all my cars for cash. So what? Do what works for you. It pleases me to have spent less for my vehicles than you spent for yours.

We ARE still on topic: avoid selling TSLA as ARK Invest expects it to be deep into five-figures soon.

And, just as a reminder (and to reply to the above): every time you stop to buy gas, you're "part of the problem" as the quote goes.

You're either part of the solution or you're part of the problem.
--Eldridge Ceaver

Please, take some of your winnings/earnings from all that trading and buy the product--it's not "just a car," or "just a Tesla," but a step towards leaving a usable planet for others. Look up their mission statement . . . .

Since you've mentioned cost, they're not too expensive--the TCO is actually less than a Honda Civic (for a Model 3); see links below.

Thx.

p.s. The cost of the Model 3 has gone DOWN since this report was written, so it's an even better deal:

Shocker: Tesla Model 3 vs. Honda Civic — 15 Cost Comparisons Over 5 Years

 

[new_sneakers]

Oops. You were right. I didn’t read your original post closely enough and thought you were referencing the total addressable market.

I’m not super crazy about Rob’s point, merely because the 400M total addressable market over the next 5 years is pretty much unavailable. Even if Tesla somehow grew at 100% / year, they could only capture:
2021 : 1M
2022: 2M
2023: 4M
2024: 8M
2025: 16M
So 31M / 400M = 7.75% of the market even if the could achieve double their already hyper aggressive growth rate goal of 50% / year.
So Tesla can’t capture even 8% of the TAM in the 1st 5 years under the very rosiest assumption (unless robo-taxi reduces total vehicular sales). EVs just won’t make a dent. 2025-2030 is where things really get interesting and Tesla should capture a respectable percentage of the TAM.

Agree.

At a 40% CAGR, Tesla in the 11 years between 2020-2030 inclusive will make 54 million vehicles. They will then be making 20 million cars a year.

At 50% CAGR it's 91 million, and 30 million cars a year.

 

[Words of HABIT]

We ARE still on topic: avoid selling TSLA as ARK Invest expects it to be deep into five-figures soon.

And, just as a reminder (and to reply to the above): every time you stop to buy gas, you're "part of the problem" as the quote goes.

You're either part of the solution or you're part of the problem.
--Eldridge Ceaver

Please, take some of your winnings/earnings from all that trading and buy the product--it's not "just a car," or "just a Tesla," but a step towards leaving a usable planet for others. Look up their mission statement . . . .

Since you've mentioned cost, they're not too expensive--the TCO is actually less than a Honda Civic (for a Model 3); see links below.

Thx.

p.s. The cost of the Model 3 has gone DOWN since this report was written, so it's an even better deal:

Shocker: Tesla Model 3 vs. Honda Civic — 15 Cost Comparisons Over 5 Years

Been driving the best car in the World, my Model 3, for over two years now and can definitely say that experience trumps any amount of zeros sitting in my investment account. Buy the Tesla. Understand it. Allows you to buy TSLA with conviction, without worry. That is worth a lot.

Really enjoying AP, purchased June 30th, 2020. I was driving around thinking, this is amazing and realized that I was only using enhanced cruise control, not realizing you needed to double down press the right steering wheel stalk. AP truly is amazing, much better than I expected, and it is like driving a brand new car, all by an OTA update.

For those laughing at me on the AP, how many Tesla owners know what happens when you quadruple down press the right steering wheel stalk? Had no idea until my 13 year old son told me. Hilarious. The hint is in a photo of my M3 taken today after dropping my daughter off at her University residence this evening.

Here's to another great week in my Tesla, regardless of the TSLA share price.

 

[lafrisbee]

one thing I know, and I learnt it real well on this site...
A guy with a psychology degree will do a lot better trading TSLA than all the economists and accountants. And the stock split jump is PROOF.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

The best part is listening to this while on the Rainbow Road

 

[Artful Dodger]

For those laughing at me on the AP, how many Tesla owners know what happens when you quadruple down press the right steering wheel stalk? Had no idea until my 13 year old son told me. Hilarious.

NASDAQ-100 Futures Sep 20 11,609.75 +44.00 +0.38% (23:30:52 ET)

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Since this is the weekend, I thought I'd post a fascinating retrospective clip of Cathie Wood of ARK Investing, in one of her first interviews on CNBC, way back in February 2015. She had the same strident confidence about Tesla then that she has now. It's hilarious to watch the other commentators try to belittle and disparage her. The SP was 200 then, so a 10-Bagger since. Guess she gets the last laugh .

Tesla, the Apple of autos: Pro

Props to Cathie for being able to spot disruption from the beginning. Throughout the years, she has never swayed her view on Tesla and put her $ where her mouth is. All while maintaining her poise and composure explaining batteries to people who do not understand the first thing about batteries.

 

[StealthP3D]

The run-up of 50% since the split makes no fundamental sense. There wasn't anybody, even the most bullish here, who were saying before the split was announced that the stock should be 50% (or even 20%) higher by the end of August. There was much speculation about how high it could go upon S&P 500 inclusion, but that is yet to come.

The problem with that kind of superficial analysis is that it assumes it was "correctly" valued before the split announcement. I thought it was under-valued. So did a lot of other members here. In fact, just 10 days ago I said I thought it was under-valued at $1645 (and while I didn't specify an exact valuation, I thought it should be considerably higher).

I don't recommend trying to time the market - it's generally more profitable (and a lot less stressful) to simply buy growth and not worry about the week to week moves.

 

[dhanson865]

How robinhood explains the split:

Since you’re a Tesla shareholder, we wanted to get in touch about the upcoming Tesla (TSLA) stock split. On August 31, 2020, Tesla will perform a 5-for-1 forward split. Here’s what that means for you:

• At the start of the day on August 31, you will hold 5 times the number of shares of TSLA that you held prior to the split. If you currently own fractional shares of TSLA, after the split you will hold 5 times that fractional amount.

• The price per share will decrease to about 1/5th of the closing price from the previous day. This accounts for the increase in the overall number of shares. For example: if you currently own 1 share of TSLA worth $500, after the split you will own 5 shares of TSLA worth $100 per share, with your overall value remaining at $500.

• The overall dollar value of your investment will not change. Say you own 4 shares of TSLA. If you imagine your total TSLA investment as a pizza cut into 4 big slices, think of this stock split as just slicing that pizza into 20 smaller slices.

Please know that all Tesla shareholders will be affected by this corporate action, and that this was not Robinhood’s decision. We can’t speak on behalf of Tesla on their reasons behind the split, but you can visit their investor relations FAQ page to learn more about investing in Tesla.

I created an account on there just to see the interface and got a share of Ford, sold the share of Ford and got a fractional share of TSLA. So now I get the split notification.

 

[tinm]

Experienced EV owners realize that the static charge of their cars as an untapped energy asset. The burgeoning fleet of Starlink satellites will connect to the terrestrial grid of Tesla Superchargers; giving Tesla the ability to monitor power flows worldwide. Tesla’s technology evolution will be a tsunami of disruption.

I agree that it’s likely a StarLink pizza box might wind up peeking out of the top of the fenced-in, locked area where the heavy-duty supercharger equipment sits at lots of supercharger sites.

And yes the supercharger computers may sing like canaries reporting data back to the mothership.

But what gets me excited is the entertainment and monetization opportunities that a small wifi network open just to charging Teslas could offer. Cable TV channels, news, music, games, hyperlocal ads (deals at retail shops right at that moment right across the parking lot but only if you act now etc). If done right, it could make charging pretty lucrative.

 

[engle]

I do have to admit - seeing that map of the evacuation area and the "be ready to go" area - did make me pause for a sec. but that is primarily as I don't know the area

I know the area extremely well as our 1996 family home is located about 7 miles SSE from Tesla Factory in the hills (about 700 ft. about sea level). We are in the "fire evacuation warning area" since last night. More dry lightning was predicted between Sunday 5 pm and 4 am PDT Monday. However, we are 5 hours into this period and so far, no lightning. I'll be up all night to monitor the situation.

There was a lightning-induced grass fire below one of my neighbor's homes last week at 3 am. Fremont Fire Dept. sent 4-5 engines and extinguished it in about 4 hours. They visited him this evening and asked him to remain vigilant again just in case.

Fremont Factory is 3 miles as the bird flies away from the closest "warning" zone on Mission Blvd (map). There is really no way a fire could reach the factory. After burning through hundreds of homes, it would have to cross interstate 680 to do so. I-680 is an excellent fire break.

I also read some desperate $TSLAQ "I hope their factory in Fremont burns down" comments on SA. Really pathetic given the loss of life and the number of people who have lost their homes and businesses in this summer's California wildfires so far.

The kind of "dry" (no rain) lightning strikes we had are extremely rare in this area. I read it was due to the aftereffects of a hurricane that impacted Baja California.

On a positive note:

Check out the two Model 3's charging at Tesla Giga Berlin Giga 4 in Grunheide from the latest 4K video:

 

[Jack6591]

Untold billions...interesting phrase.

Automated trucking, a technical milestone that could disrupt hundreds of thousands of jobs, hits the road

 

[Big Time]

Twitter is freaking out about nano battery tech by amprious. Could be something to late for me off to bed. See y’all in the morning