Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[evermore]

Couldn't it just as easily be the opposite? Sold calls and bought puts? Or an iron condor, or a straddle?

What makes you say the trader must've gone short calls and long puts?

I think I did say the trader sold calls and bought puts, and I think they did so in a bearish-favoring trade involving different strikes and dates. I'm not sure what the name of this strategy is, do you? I'm still learning.

The screenshot above is from Fidelity, where I recently learned that the green color means the leg was near the ask price which means it's likely that leg was bought. I assume the other leg was sold (but not near enough to the bid to be colored red). However, Thinkorswim alerted on this trade too, and did so with more confidence about which leg was bought and sold:

I'm assuming that TOS got the buy/sell right on that, but perhaps it could be wrong? I wonder if it really has access to any more information to determine that than whether the premium is nearer the bid or ask. But if we do trust it, then I think I translated the correct information to that options profit calculator link.

 

[MC3OZ]

Didn't Seba say that all new car sales would be electric by 2025?

New car sales would have to collapse for the EV supply chain to make enough BEVs .

What is more likely is most new car buyers wanting a BEV by 2025, or deciding to hold of the purchase decision for a while before committing.

This is why I am happy for Tesla to aim to grow at MaxQ and simply reserve some cash for a macro downturn.

Most macro downturns are simply "change accelerators". companies that caught out have no deliverable product, an low quality product, a non-competitive product, high debt levels and/or very low margins...

I don't l have Tesla at risk in any substantial way, so they will always have higher relative market share after a downturn, until true BEV competition emerges...

We will find Tesla and a number of other car companies can grow BEV production fairly fast between now and 2025, BEVs being the majority of new car purchases in 2025 might not be impossible...

In the case of Tesla, to use an racing analogy, they are about to exit pit lane with new tires and a full battery.
.

 

[Artful Dodger]

"Neuralink: Elon Musk's entire brain chip presentation in 14 minutes (supercut)" | C/NET

 

[RobStark]

What is more likely is most new car buyers wanting a BEV by 2025, or deciding to hold of the purchase decision for a while before committing.

This is why I am happy for Tesla to aim to grow at MaxQ and simply reserve some cash for a macro downturn.

Most macro downturns are simply "change accelerators". companies that caught out have no deliverable product, an low quality product, a non-competitive product, high debt levels and/or very low margins...

I don't l have Tesla at risk in any substantial way, so they will always have higher relative market share after a downturn, until true BEV competition emerges...

We will find Tesla and a number of other car companies can grow BEV production fairly fast between now and 2025, BEVs being the majority of new car purchases in 2025 might not be impossible...

In the case of Tesla, to use an racing analogy, they are about to exit pit lane with new tires and a full battery.
.

Majority BEV sales is incredibly optimistic.

Seba said 100% cars,trucks,Semis, Municipal Buses would be electric by 2025.

That starts in 4.25 years.

I don't see 80M unit sales holding off for years until BEV supply catch up.

Nor do I see robotaxi making up the difference.

 

[MarcoRP]

Just found a slew of 20+ new and undiscovered pre-approved Supercharger locations of which most should be coming soon to Target stores across the USA by the end of this year (no Alaska yet, sorry @AudubonB)

 

[Intl Professor]

I'll add that ARK provides a valuable service for people who don't know as much about Tesla as @Artful Dodger does... people who don't have time or skills to spend all day every day researching the company. Of course ARK charges for their expertise in picking and trading stocks. Of course they want to attract more clients. That's called business.

Like Dodger, I don't need ARK to pick or trade TSLA for me, but I'm very happy to pay them for their expertise in picking and trading the 42 stocks in their genomic fund. I don't have time or skills to research all those companies.

Buying ARKG this year we are up 60% or so. No longer buying, giving to local food bank instead.

 

[PeterJA]

What is more likely is most new car buyers wanting a BEV by 2025, or deciding to hold of the purchase decision for a while before committing.

This is why I am happy for Tesla to aim to grow at MaxQ and simply reserve some cash for a macro downturn.

Most macro downturns are simply "change accelerators". companies that caught out have no deliverable product, an low quality product, a non-competitive product, high debt levels and/or very low margins...

I don't l have Tesla at risk in any substantial way, so they will always have higher relative market share after a downturn, until true BEV competition emerges...

We will find Tesla and a number of other car companies can grow BEV production fairly fast between now and 2025, BEVs being the majority of new car purchases in 2025 might not be impossible...

In the case of Tesla, to use an racing analogy, they are about to exit pit lane with new tires and a full battery.
.

Yes, bankruptcy of the ICE-makers will come not when their customers buy a Tesla instead, but when enough customers merely delay buying a new car until they can get a Tesla. Then the bankruptcies will cause other customers to wait before buying. This is a virtuous cycle for Tesla and a death spiral for ICE, and it is coming sooner than most people think. ICE-maker margins are too thin for them to survive much loss of sales.

 

[gabeincal]

Macros: the facts seem to confirm Tony Seba's prediction of the rapidity of EV adoption so far: here is a recent (COVID 19) talk:

He makes a compelling case for log scale adoption. Cathie Wood makes a good argument for TSLA's outsize share of that adoption in the near term (and the major manufacturers seem to have conceded the future to TSLA with a whimper, not a bang) It seems like Tesla is executing flawlessly (what does the Shanghai design/build team do now?? Next Giga, please) Congrats to all and so nice that on Monday, the opportunity will be within reach for many more...

Thanks for the link, interesting presentation.

I think we're roughly where the green line is with Tesla cars. Even the duration of the growth (about 10 yrs from start) matches up. Now we are at a point where Model 3 and Y are cutting cost, adoption starts to exponentially rise but nowhere near the potential yet, due to manufacturing constraints and still relatively high cost.

And consequently, Tesla Energy is probably at the 1960 mark for now, awaiting any adoption really..?

I almost think the timeline works for both the cars and energy and where 1970 is 2020, in 10 years, market dominance is very likely on both fronts.

 

[jhm]

Didn't Seba say that all new car sales would be electric by 2025?

New car sales would have to collapse for the EV supply chain to make enough BEVs .

Yes, and new car sales have been declining. Seba's disruption is essentially robotaxis. This could definitely collapse new car sales.

 

[tinm]

Majority BEV sales is incredibly optimistic.

Seba said 100% cars,trucks,Semis, Municipal Buses would be electric by 2025.

That starts in 4.25 years.

I don't see 80M unit sales holding off for years until BEV supply catch up.

Nor do I see robotaxi making up the difference.

Below is a different viewpoint, way less optimistic than Seba but arguably more realistic. This is a podcast interview by Vox’s Ezra Klein with guest Saul Griffith who’s leading a decarbonization effort called Rewire America. It’s a great discussion.

How to decarbonize America — and create 25 million jobs

And the Apple Podcasts version of the link:

‎The Ezra Klein Show: How to decarbonize America — and create 25 million jobs on Apple Podcasts

 

[S3XY]

ARK needs to up her pay.

She's probably like many of us. All of her money is tied up in TSLA.

 

[Criscmt]

Has something happened that would affect IV?

I was wondering if starting Monday 08/31 we should see a post-event effect on IV. Seeing the split day, or the day before, that is 08/28, as an event day similar to earnings release.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Repeating the request by @ggr: Neuralink discussion to be held in The Neuralink Master Thread
I moved some posts there, any new ones will be less fortunate.

 

[dl003]

I was wondering if starting Monday 08/31 we should see a post-event effect on IV. Seeing the split day, or the day before, that is 08/28, as an event day similar to earnings release.

I don't think so. IV has hovered around the same level dated back to post ER. It only just rose slightly the last 2 days but nothing major.

 

[engle]

Fidelity already reflects our stock dividend in my accounts as follows:

-- Indicates that this information is not available at this time.

When I expand, it shows: Shares: + #####.00. I don't know why it says (Cash) since no taxable cash dividend was involved?

Schwab has not done so yet:

Fidelity's Active Trader Pro platform still shows the pre-stock dividend share price.

Finally, IMHO S&P will add TSLA to their index when they rebalance in September so they can adjust the divisor at the same time due to TSLA's large market cap. If they don't and leave out Tesla, their index will become somewhat irrelevant. Here's TSLA compared to S&P 500 (blue line) over the past 5 years:

I saved this screengrab Friday wondering when we will see this level again post-split? That would be about $2T USD market cap which is about where AAPL is today at #1!

YOLO: Tesla only needs to gain another 35.5% by the time Roadster II is available (my personal price target to finance one in order to keep stock & cash). By then, Made in China Model Y, Make in Germany Model Y, and hopefully Made in Texas CyberTruck and Semi will all be in production, with additional Giga/Tera factories in the planning and/or construction phases!

 

[saniflash]

The biggest potential problem with writing a put for a very volatile stock in a volatile market is this: If you say to yourself "I'd be glad to be forced to but TSLA at $X" and a black (or even a gray) swan event happens, the stock may gap down to X-$50 or $100 or whatever and you are assigned to buy at X.

I backtested the wheel strategy for TSLA since its IPO with ATM options and the problem with it is similar to what you've described.

Sooner or later (no matter if you execute the strategy with weeklies or monthlies), you will write a PUT that gets assigned at a price that the stock will not see for a longer period of time. On the other side, sooner or later you will write a CALL that makes you lose out on a big revaluation (gap up) of the stock. It is especially the latter that kills the strategy for me personally, as you would be outperforming this strategy by just holding the stock by a big margin (double-digit percentage as far as I remember, 18% underperformance or so compared to just hodling).

Note: Only tested with ATM options, and mechanically so (i.e. it would write a CALL over earnings, etc.). Maybe someone who is able to time the market could be using this strategy profitably. I've shown multiple times that I cannot time the market (man that was a really expensive lesson, I would have 25% more TSLA had I just HELD).

On another note, IBKR just now updated my number of shares to x5 while using the pre-split price to calculate the position value, with my portfolio now showing 8 digits. Could get used to that.

 

[Tslynk67]

I'll keep you true to your word. Luckily you're rich, I like fancy beer.

Macros: the facts seem to confirm Tony Seba's prediction of the rapidity of EV adoption so far: here is a recent (COVID 19) talk:

He makes a compelling case for log scale adoption. Cathie Wood makes a good argument for TSLA's outsize share of that adoption in the near term (and the major manufacturers seem to have conceded the future to TSLA with a whimper, not a bang) It seems like Tesla is executing flawlessly (what does the Shanghai design/build team do now?? Next Giga, please) Congrats to all and so nice that on Monday, the opportunity will be within reach for many more...

For those that never watched Seba's presentation, take the time to do so, it's very good.

 

[ThisStockGood]

when my bank have added the new shares but haven’t adjusted the shareprice yet

 

[Pezpunk]

The feeling when my bank have added the new shares but haven’t adjusted the shareprice yet

View attachment 581921

haha yeah i logged in to Fidelity and my account balances are VERY VERY SILLY.

 

[Robertj]

IBKR gives me @ loss

I am sure Monday will look Better