Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Tes La Ferrari]

I love Tesla and Elon but you guys get so nostradamus on this stuff. Sometimes a tweet is a tweet

of course we all know that there’s nothing to his SPlendid tweets.

But...we all know why he will soon be driving a model S Plaid.

 

[S3XY]

Fidelity is garbage. I spent 2.5 hours on the phone and got nothing done...most of it on hold.
It takes 3 to 4 days for money to "settle" ...that is bank speak for let us play the float.

I tried to move my self directed brokerage link account to a IRA since I am no longer in my company's 401K plan.
That is not possible without a call to them. Then it takes 3 days for the funds to "settle"

These are ledger transactions...a bit in a database....not some fine china

I was pretty happy with Schwab's handling of my "incident" today. I was given a 20 minute wait estimate when I called and it was almost exactly that. The CS agent completely understood my situation when I explained it to her. She told me she had to speak to the trading area to see what they could do. I was on hold for about 5 minutes when she came back on and gave me 3 detailed options for my predicament. I told her how I wanted to handle it and it was settled. Also, I don't have a margin account but was able to sell these shares and buy them right back within a few minutes without enough available cash on hand. Now if I want to take cash out there's a 2 or 3 day wait for it to transfer out. But sell trades and cash transfers in are available right away for buy orders. I also didn't see any of the crazy dollar amounts or delays during the stock split weekend. It makes me think they have their act together.

 

[SPadival]

A lil birdy (called Lex) told me Jim Keller was at the Neuralink demo in person. Jim left Intel in June.

 

[Prunesquallor]

...
On battery day, those probabilities will collapse into certainties. And those who have priced in incorrect assumptions will lose out.

So you’re saying battery day is the Wave Equation of investing? Schrödinger's Cathode?

 

[jhm]

"I could care less," is an understatement. "I couldn't care less," is an exaggeration. The fact that one is compelled to express how little they care about something expresses a care which the speaker wishes not to have. One way one could care less is to say nothing at all. Obviously, Clease could care less about how Americans speak by not putting himself in front of a camera to take exception to it. Or maybe he couldn't care less because he lacks the verbal continence to keep his own counsel.

 

[capster]

You might be right for you, but that doesn't mean you're right for other people. I find that my investing results are better when I have have specific short-term goals (like what you are deriding here) rather than vague goals (like maximize my money). And surely it's investing results that matter, right?

Yes and to generalize, it’s extremely important that an investor knows their own strengths, sticks to those strengths and avoids the temptation to stray into ways of doing things that don’t play to their strengths.

I focus on the long view and don’t think I’m half bad at it. The short term stuff, such as options trading for example, would not play to my strengths: Getting involved in it would demand so much attention and create so much agitation that it would surely cloud my long view.

Warren Buffett is a case in point. People dis him for not investing in some beloved growth companies, but he knows his strengths and sticks to his ways of doing things. I haven’t his strengths nor his ways.

This forum is great for getting insight into how others see things (among other benefits). This has broadened and informed my thinking — though I am also careful not to be pulled in directions away from my own strengths.

 

[jpsgoneev]

Bought 50 shares again.
This stock is addictive.

I’m about to buy 20 more tomorrow too lol!

More potential candidates for a TSLAholics Anonymous?

I don’t really need anymore chairs, but I find deep dips a bit irresistible.

Never let a good dip go by ... without a buy.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Strawberry Fields Forever was released on February 17, 1967...which was a Friday...

Fun Fact: "The title of the [Beetles] song refers to the Salvation Army-ran girl's orphanage – dreamily called “Strawberry Field” – that Lennon lived near growing up in Liverpool."

 

[capster]

Well that certainly didn’t disprove any theory that dogs are superior to cats.

 

[dl003]

Fun Fact: "The title of the [Beetles] song refers to the Salvation Army-ran girl's orphanage – dreamily called “Strawberry Field” – that Lennon lived near growing up in Liverpool."

The Liverpool football team wears what color? Red.
What is Tesla's color? Red.
And the plot thickens.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I was born 9 months after the release of this song. I'm ready for the spoon now, please.

What if I told you there is no spoon?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Can you explain this please?

No, you have to read the references.

 

[gluu]

White paper out by Gene Berdichevsky and Gleb Yushin, founders of Sila Nano. Gene worked on the original Tesla Roadster battery pack. Kurt Kelty works at Sila, and I believe JB Straubel at one point was either an advisor or on the board. Very interesting if you want to nerd out on batteries and try to speculate about what will happen on battery day, and how it will affect Tesla's business going forward.

https://silanano.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/The-Future-of-Energy-Storage.pdf

Twitter highlights from Gene as well:

https://twitter.com/SilaGene/status/1301197888333123586

 

[S3XY]

Strawberry Fields Forever was released on February 17, 1967...which was a Friday...

According to Wikipedia it was released February 13, 1967 - a Monday.

$1,967 confirmed.

 

[Criscmt]

Hi - I can't comment on the tax matters as I'm in Belgium...

As regards offloading the LEAPS, I've not done much of that either, and when I have I've mostly regretted selling as they went up and up and up afterwards. But my LEAPS are always bought in dips, or if not dips, then far enough in the past as to have DITM (except for the Jun 22 $3500's)

Now I've a bit more experience, my personal strategy is to either leave them to exercise (in 2022) or sell when the IV is very high/SP is at a local peak, in any case, don't sell them on a downward trend, as long as they're not aspiring too soon, hold them until a big SP upswing/IV increase.

But given that I'll need to pay taxes when I realise these LEAPS, I'm really tending towards exercising on expiry, unless something unforeseen happens where I need the money. Note that I cannot exercise these early, no possibility with my broker.

On the other hand, I fancy the stock will have split once or twice more before June 2022, so would be a substantial amount of money if I just leave them alone...

Do you consider IV to be very high now (if not SP being at local peak)?

85% in LEAPs expiring in Sep-2021 or later.
15% expiring in Jan-2021, Mar-2021, and Nov-2020
The several "switches" (I mentioned in my earlier post) are making exercising less likely. I might have to find a way to borrow significant money, and also use some margins to maximize exercising.
I wish one gives loans for exercising

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

First time I've seen this document. If it's sitting right there, I must admit to being somewhat mystified that all the "experts" discussing this haven't simply pointed to it. Of course, weeks ago it wouldn't mean that they would wait until rebalancing to announce inclusion, but at this point that seems extremely likely. And it doesn't seem as though they can leave it for after rebalancing either.

So, Tuesday will very likely be the day that we learn the effect this has on the stock price. I can see a variety of ways this process could have been gamed, but I expect that increasing demand while decreasing supply will force the stock price up for at least the short term.

Am I understanding how they do the rebalancing correctly?

The EFFECTIVE date is 9/18. So that should be the day the index starts using the new weighting of different stocks. The ultimate goal for any indexed fund is to have the correct number of shares on that date. So every quarter except the one with a September date the S&P send out what they call a ProForma file one week in advance. September is two weeks in advance at least in 2019 and 2020. The reason for an extra week doesn't seem to have anything to do with Labor Day as last year that fell outside the two week period.

The Proforma presumably contains the new weighting for every stock and for those to be correct they must include/exclude any changes of companies. This is sent on 9/4 this quarter. This should give those funds following the index a chance to adjust and be at the correct balancing on 9/18. If this is the case it makes little sense to send out the rebalancing note on Friday and then change it again the next market day, or for that matter any other day in between.

I know somebody here looked up different inclusion dates but for some reason I can't find them at the S&P site. Can anyone find out if they have ever made a separate inclusion during the one (or two) weeks between a Proforma note is sent and rebalancing?

Although, they do call 9/4 "1st Day Proforma is sent". Does that contradict what I write above in that they actually send a new one every day until 9/18? Or does it mean 9/4 is the earliest day they might send it? Wouldn't it have said earliest then though?

Here's something else I found in the S&P methology notes. I'm sure it's been discussed but I haven't noticed this in any of the videos/articles I've seen.

"When a company is added to an index in the middle of the quarter, it takes the weight of the company that it replaced."

The companies getting kicked out would presumably have a very low weighting and Tesla will have a very high one so letting Tesla in any other time than at the quarterly rebalancing dates would make Tesla severely under weighted until the next rebalancing. This is another reason it seems very unlikely they would do it at any other time than 9/18, as long as they intend to include Tesla.

 

[Cat Checking]

I’m guessing the people who disagreed with my comment also think Elon Musk was a founder of Tesla (a lie) & that he personally designed the Neuralink device & that it doesn’t build on the ton of existing neuroscientific research

How do you ignore/block somebody when you are not able to see their profile?

 

[S3XY]

How do you ignore/block somebody when you are not able to see their profile?

Click on the up arrow in his quote above to go to that post. Then click on his name and in that popup is the option to block him.

 

[Criscmt]

Our friends seem to be playing their capping games - large orders being placed as TSLA approaches certain levels, and then those orders are pulled once the intended result has been achieved. Saw it a lot in the $452 range just now.

Were you referring to sell orders at a higher than then current price, and later cancelling the order?

 

[Davidzhao365]

Here is an interesting tweet
https://twitter.com/jpr007/status/1301362513603305472?s=21