Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Criscmt]

Lol tax loss harvesting at its finest.

Can you explain this more, perhaps with an example?

 

[Curt Renz]

"I could care less," is an understatement. "I couldn't care less," is an exaggeration. The fact that one is compelled to express how little they care about something expresses a care which the speaker wishes not to have. One way one could care less is to say nothing at all. Obviously, Clease could care less about how Americans speak by not putting himself in front of a camera to take exception to it. Or maybe he couldn't care less because he lacks the verbal continence to keep his own counsel.

In my opinion Cleese is right, except for the implication that all Americans say the nonsensical version, "I could care less." In my circle we say, "I couldn't care less." His first three wives were American, so I suspect he chastised at least one of them for the silly usage. The improper form was a pet peeve of my late mother. The original form is actually related to an earlier expression, "I couldn't agree more." That one never became degraded to "I could agree more." But the term under discussion did become degraded to the form we now hear from some people. As Cleese cleverly explains, the improper form is the opposite of what one actually means. Too many people repeat a nonsensical expression that they have heard from someone else, without stopping to think about the true meaning of the words they are saying. Then it is spread to others like a virus.

 

[MC3OZ]

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Here is an interesting tweet
https://twitter.com/jpr007/status/1301362513603305472?s=21

IMO it is possible the $5B worth of extra shares provides the S&P committee with some assurance that the share price will not be caught up in an infinity squeeze..

The other assurance is an estimate of the front running that has happened to date.

Perhaps there is an additional assurance from Tesla that more is available if needed.

Even with all these assurances, I'm still finding it hard to see how a squeeze and a spike can be avoided...

 

[engle]

At first, seeing 6-figure paper losses in a 6.5 hour period was kind of disconcerting. After all, it was down $369(!) at the pre-split price at the lowest point of the day.

Tonight after focusing on the long term percentage view I feel much better!

I need to learn to ignore daily paper dollars!

I was also playing around with indicators and came across VAMA: Volume-Adjusted Moving Average. This can be used by long-term investors to choose entry points. For example, here is the YTD daily VAMA (15-day moving average of VWAP) chart for TSLA:

Note that except for COVID-19, each time SP dropped below VAMA was a particularly good entry point this year. I guess that was because TSLA, except for COVID-19, has been generally rising. Finally, at the 8/31 close of $498.32, VAMA was only $393.60 so SP was 26% higher which is pretty extraordinary considering the main thing driving the SP higher was split psychology and possibly some "short" side effects.

See this Investopedia article for more details.

Note that VAMA is different than VWAP which has been already discussed. VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price) only looks at one day at a time.

I do expect an S&P 500 TSLA add announcement Friday aftermarket, and I will be watching VAMA closely the following week if it occurs.

I just saw this video of Elon being mobbed in Germany on Twitter:

https://twitter.com/EricMandela/status/1301296388056195073?s=20

It made me nervous that one of these people could make him sick! A cloth mask doesn't protect you from getting COVID-19. It just stops some droplets if you already have it from sickening others. IMHO, Elon should be wearing an N-95 or P-100 mask when he is in public like that!

 

[DaveT]

Could you expand on this statement? As always, I am interested in your reasoning on this.

$200-500 stock price is $1000-2500 pre-split, so it's definitely a much higher range that Tesla has seen in the past. I think some people are expecting Tesla to just skip the $1000-2000 price range since it stayed there for such a short time. I think that's possible, but I think it's possible that Tesla at some point does revisit that range. Overall, even at 1 million vehicles sold (let's say they reach that run rate by end of next year), that is roughly $50 billion revenue (if ASP if $50k per vehicle, but not including other lines of businesses). And a $500 billion market cap is 10x that revenue. That could be a tough sell, and that's why we could see some resistance at the $500 billion level (or that's why we saw the stock top at $520). One of the unknown factors is how the overall macro environment and the role of the fed unfolds. The Fed seems to be committing to ongoing QE and printing of money. This will just grow the appetites of investors for growth and equities. So stocks like Tesla (and other tech/growth stocks) will likely benefit. So, it's entirely possible that we see the stock continue to appreciate over the next few years and break the $500 billion market cap barrier. However, this isn't a foregone conclusion and a lot has to go right. If there's a market correction or a market rotation out of tech/growth stocks, then Tesla will likely get caught up in that and we could see a period of range-bound activity. What that range is depends on when that correction or major rotation happens. But since I'm more of a long-term investor, I'm not too concerned about the stock price over the next 5 years. My main concern is the level of execution Tesla has and if Tesla is continuing to push ambitiously toward their aggressive growth goals. If Tesla executes well, then the stock price will take care of itself. And I expect TSLA in 2030 to be a lot higher than it is now. But I think overall we (and I speak of us on TMC and other places) tend to over-estimate our abilities to predict the stock price in the short-term and also in the 1-2 year timeframe. There's just so many factors involved that are out of our control that affect sentiment toward TSLA but also toward the market in whole. I suppose if you could accurately predict stock price then you'd be better off betting on short-term options than holding stock. But to me holding stock (even through the ups and downs) provides the best balance of risk/reward for a stock like TSLA. Sure there are times when the stock is ridiculously undervalued and it makes sense to make some option bets. However, when the stock has just run up big (like 10x in a year), then the chances are it could be due for a time of stabilizing. Just my two cents.

 

[Tslynk67]

OK, this kind of discussion isn't for main, I created a thread for those interested (probably just me )

Lycanthropes house...

Congratulations on your potential new home. Is there a room for a Tesla friendly garage ?

Before any put any money down, can you please make sure your model X can actually fit between those gates

Oohhh, I like that....

Hmmm...It seems the belief that TSLA could not be substantially below the current price in a few months is embedded in your reasoning. While it might be more likely to be $800 than $350, that doesn't explain your willingness to hold calls that will expire worthless if it's the latter. The future is always uncertain. My confidence in holding TSLA stems not from my confidence that the overall market will stay strong indefinitely (it won't), and not from the inability of TSLA to have trouble (either of their own making or unavoidable outside influences) because I know that is possible. My confidence stems from the fact that I won't need to sell any in the next 2-3 years and that Tesla can easily weather such challenges. But the market price will be volatile.

I'm just trying to be helpful here with another perspective here so don't take this wrong. I think your goal to get to a specific number of shares is counter-productive to beneficial investing behavior. The number of shares you might wish to own is irrelevant. Goals are over-rated, particularly when they attempt to quantify things that shouldn't be quantified. A general goal, such as becoming more patient with others, managing short-term risk more skillfully or learning to be a better cook) can be helpful. A goal that is just a number is counter-productive. There are enough challenges an investor must deal with (such as risk management, market volatility, etc.) that adding on another one that is completely irrelevant to the task at hand (managing risk while maximizing performance) should be avoided.

A couple thousand dollars slipped quietly into his palm with a wink and a nod could save you a lot of time, money and regret. /s

Seriously though, while it's very important to have a house that you like, big, deluxe houses are often over-rated. What matters are things like location, light exposure and window placement, layout and traffic flow, kitchen function and that all this works for your lifestyle. So many large, expensive houses fail at basic things that really matter. Most people are terrible house shoppers because they think they want things that aren't really important to their personal happiness.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Very encouraging: Tesla is testing the waters in Germany for the expansion of its energy utility business

In the Q2 2020 earnings call, Elon Musk explained that Tesla Energy plays a huge role in the company’s mission to accelerate the world’s shift to sustainability. “Tesla Energy will be roughly the same size as Tesla automotive. The energy business collectively is bigger than the automotive business. So you say like, how big is the energy sector? It’s bigger than automotive. And in order to achieve a sustainable energy future, we have to have sustainable energy generation,” the CEO said.

So we just divided everything by five. Now (well, eventually) we need to multiply by two.

 

[Criscmt]

Fidelity is garbage. I spent 2.5 hours on the phone and got nothing done...most of it on hold.
It takes 3 to 4 days for money to "settle" ...that is bank speak for let us play the float.

I tried to move my self directed brokerage link account to a IRA since I am no longer in my company's 401K plan.
That is not possible without a call to them. Then it takes 3 days for the funds to "settle"

These are ledger transactions...a bit in a database....not some fine china

Which brokerage do you find best?

Edit: Never mind, I saw the reply once I moved to the next page

 

[Criscmt]

You might be right for you, but that doesn't mean you're right for other people. I find that my investing results are better when I have have specific short-term goals (like what you are deriding here) rather than vague goals (like maximize my money). And surely it's investing results that matter, right?

There's nothing wrong in sharing one's views, and there was no emphasis that that's the only right approach.
I found @StealthP3D comments helpful and polite. I would say, I found your opening statement not so much.

 

[Artful Dodger]

$1,967 $1,967.48 confirmed.

FTFY.

 

[Criscmt]

FTFY.

What's the expectation on $1,967.48 w.r.t to expected inclusion?

 

[Tslynk67]

Ladies and gentlemen...i think we have 'made' it finally It only took 2 months to make $$, but it doesn't list how much it has lost...typical FUD

A Tesla triple-leveraged fund is finally having a day in the sun, soaring 40%

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This text in the middle of the article reflects the situation more accurately - which obviously includes the 40% gain yesterday:

To be sure, the triple-leveraged ETF has also experienced withering losses to this point, and is down 80.5% in the past 30-day period, according to FactSet data.

 

[mad474]

After Germany starts so modestly today, USA will probably do the opposite. My index finger hovers over the buy button.


Edit: Yes, I forgot to look into New York's after hours, thanks Dodger. Nevertheless hoping for western counter movements to start

 

[Artful Dodger]

Perhaps there is an additional assurance from Tesla that more is available if needed.

This may already be authorized in the terms of Tesla's Prospectus: "The Offering"

Common stock to be outstanding after this offering:

Up to 941,630,078 shares of our common stock, assuming sales of 10,033,713 shares in this offering at a price of $498.32 per share, which was the closing price on the Nasdaq Global Select Market on August 31, 2020.

The actual number of shares issued will vary depending on the sales price under this offering and, in any event, may not exceed the number of authorized and available shares under our amended and restated certificate of incorporation.​

Note that Tesla's current upper limit on their total number of shares is 2 billion per their Delaware Certificate of Incorporation. And that could be raised before declaring the next Stock Dividend.

Cheers!

 

[Artful Dodger]

After Germany starts so modestly today, USA will probably do the opposite. My index finger hovers over the buy button.

Well, the After hours session in New York finished yesterdat at $437.26

A few moments ago, Tradegate in Berlin was at 370,95 Euro or about 437.75 USD.

That's certainly inline with a continuation of trading from where it left off.

Cheers!

 

[Artful Dodger]

What's the expectation on $1,967.48 w.r.t to expected inclusion?

The date Feb 17, 1967 (Beetle's Album release date) would be expressed as 1967.48 in YYYY.DD format.

@S3XY

 

[MikeAtkinson]

Rain has stopped the dirt moving on-site, but deliveries continue and geopile work goes on.

 

[Artful Dodger]

"Tesla Gigafactory 3 Inside II" | Jason Yang (3 hrs ago)

 

[Dreadnought]

IMO it is possible the $5B worth of extra shares provides the S&P committee with some assurance that the share price will not be caught up in an infinity squeeze..

The other assurance is an estimate of the front running that has happened to date.

Perhaps there is an additional assurance from Tesla that more is available if needed.

Even with all these assurances, I'm still finding it hard to see how a squeeze and a spike can be avoided...

My read of this Twitter thread is:
Tesla has installed a safety valve on the SP. For now, they have authorised shares to be sold of up to 5B. We don't know the limit they have set but let's say it's $1250. This will cap the SP until 2 million new shares are sold. Should the SP still look like it's running away, all it takes is another filing to the SEC. Unlike MMs, Tesla can legally produce an almost infinite amount of new shares. They would even benefit as they can buy them back for less after the dust settles.

 

[heltok]

White paper out by Gene Berdichevsky and Gleb Yushin, founders of Sila Nano. Gene worked on the original Tesla Roadster battery pack. Kurt Kelty works at Sila, and I believe JB Straubel at one point was either an advisor or on the board. Very interesting if you want to nerd out on batteries and try to speculate about what will happen on battery day, and how it will affect Tesla's business going forward.

https://silanano.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/The-Future-of-Energy-Storage.pdf

Twitter highlights from Gene as well:

https://twitter.com/SilaGene/status/1301197888333123586

Really good paper! I read it all, it is a lot to take in, but after having read it I am more bullish on Tesla. It seems the paper agrees with mostly everything that Tesla has done and are saying that they will do. It is also pretty impressive how Tesla got the timing right for the introduction of the original roadster. And also this paper seems to indicate that some of the competition betting on solid state are drawing dead.

I have a gut feeling that Tesla knew everything that was in this paper a few years ago, but has since then been hard at work developing new stuff that will blow the mind of the authors of this paper pushing forward the timeline a few years. Really stoked for the battery day now! I think it will blow our minds more than HW3 presentation did.