Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[anthonyj]

Tesla should sell $65b of stock to the index funds. I want to see Valueanalcyst break his/her/their/xer screen

...
then Tesla can buy back the stonks after speculators dump

 

[BornToFly]

I have to hand it to my wife. Over the years she has given me so much crap for going all in on TSLA. Now that we have made a lot of money on my conviction, she is telling me to HODL through the possible lack of S&P announcement today. I was getting ready to sell 1/3 of my shares out of fear (and to secure my retirement). She said we have enough to live off of for two years and it will be higher than now sometime in the next two years. I don't know if I love her more right now, or just got my excuse for a future divorce...

Are any of my friends here a decent lawyer....

 

[Prunesquallor]

It's possible that TSLA Mgmt got caught up just like us TMC Fools
EM has been tweeting S... & P ... for a couple of weeks now.

TSLA is the high school kid, who goes directly to the NBA

(+ just showcase Battery Day, execute on Q3 )

On my 2nd IPA ... chillin

On my third margarita I seriously doubt Tesla management got blindsided. No way. They know one way or the other.

 

[Unpilot]

It's possible that TSLA Mgmt got caught up just like us TMC Fools
EM has been tweeting S... & P ... for a couple of weeks now.

TSLA is the high school kid, who goes directly to the NBA/ All Star Game .. no small cap, mid cap 400, directly to 500

(+ just showcase Battery Day, execute on Q3 )

On my 2nd IPA ... chillin

Do tell....what kind?

 

[elasalle]

On my third margarita I seriously doubt Tesla management got blindsided. No way. They know one way or the other.

3 > 2 , looks like you are more drunk than me

 

[Big Time]

People be saying they didn’t want to add it over the long weekend to give Europe a leg up on Monday. Hoping that’s the case.
If not:
Battery day
Q3

 

[elasalle]

Do tell....what kind?

Papi Chulo | Commonwealth Brewing Company (doing the micro brew scene )

1st day off Keto ( 4 weeks) ... lost 10 pounds

 

[capster]

You are right that the S&P stuff is just a distraction. But I think people are wondering about the timing of the ATM secondary offering. Why do an ATM when you could have just sold X number of shares at 480$? As an investor I think it’s fair to ask that question. Hopefully we get an answer soon. I still think this is an overreaction from people, we have to give it a few days. Gotta love the AH discount.




Did they really release a statement for SNAP? That is very interesting. I think TSLA is now so big that it can bring markets down. S&P knows this too so I don’t think this is over.

The S&P committee has probably faced the challenges of front runners and other parasites during inclusions for many offerings in the past, though probably not nearly at the scale they do with Tesla.

My guess is that they are trying to do right by their index funds and the investors in those funds.

The ATM offering, the choice not to announce now, and perhaps other moves may be part of a strategy to bring in TSLA at the best price possible for the funds, i.e. the lowest.

If I read it correctly, somewhere upthread there was mention that if a company were brought in between rebalancings, that company would be brought in at the weight of the company being removed. It’s weight would then be adjusted at the next rebalancing. Wouldn’t that be one way to stretch out the inclusion and soften the buying to help the index funds adjust?

If you’re just long and just hold for the long term as I do, you’ll be fine.

Patience is a superpower.

 

[traxila]

Just like the Old Men of the S & P 500 committee.

They add the date rape drug company and turn their backs on the future and the new economy.

All I got to say is Me Too, fogeys. Payback and jail time in your futures bitches, instead of clean Energy.

 

[Thekiwi]

The $5 Billion raise, unlike the stock split and S&P inclusion/non-inclusion, actually does provide a boost to the company fundamentals and it was well worth doing with the stock price so high meaning so little dilution.

Whether it is instead of new debt, or offsetting/paying down existing debt, the $5 Billion raised will contribute to lower net interest costs, which increases net income going forward.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

it seems fishy to me that Tesla announced the $5B secondary offering with unusual terms, and the fact that S&P made the announcement before a 3 day weekend without mentioning Tesla. Either Tesla got snowed by S&P, or they didn't want to announce Tesla being added before the holiday weekend.

 

[Mo City]

After the Q2 earnings call, I felt better about the future of Tesla than ever before. Since then, my confidence has only grown. We will look back and laugh at the AH hand-wringing happening now.

Longs, don't sweat this.

Laissez les FUNDAMENTALS rouler!

 

[AlMc]

Are any of my friends here a decent lawyer....

No, but I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night. Did not make me smarter about S&P inclusion/investing so it MUST have made me one 'wicked good' lawyer! (yeah, I grew up not too far from Boston)

And my wife is bugging me to sell before AH closes.......I am resisting. ('resistance is futile'.....but only 30 more minutes of hiding in the garage needed)

 

[traxila]

Bah, this price drop tis but a scratch.

Will mean nothing Tuesday morning. Bought more at 388.20.

 

[Mo City]

I predict TSLA will get added to S&P500 right after we all give up on it ever being added.

Sort of like trying to get pregnant.

 

[electrichapp]

It's a long weekend
Let's forget about the S&P sugar show for now and enjoy the labor day holiday
The future is renewable energy and transportation.
Tesla's fundamentals has not changed and will be a 1T+ company

 

[Curt Renz]

TSLA is the 800-pound gorilla in the S&P committee room. Shifting a few monkeys among their indices should be easily digestible for the index funds. Apparently announcing those shifts before a North American holiday was not seen to present the problem it could if TSLA were involved.

It will be seventeen days before the quarterly S&P rebalancing takes effect in market trading. There’s still time for additions to be announced. And that’s not unprecedented. But even if not this month, to maintain any credibility S&P will eventually have to add TSLA. For long term shareholders (not options speculators) it’s simply a matter of whether they give us a little jolt now or later. Of course the longer they wait, the larger the gorilla grows.

 

[insaneoctane]

Several unrelated thoughts:

• Being snubbed by S&P sucks
• The worst is having to hear people talk about it for the next few days/months
• We don't need them as much as they need us
• They'll get continuously hassled as long as Tesla continues to be profitable, in top 10 and excluded, no?
• Fundamentals are the same for us HODLers
• THIS IS THE BIG ONE, IMO, Tesla will be the last opportunity to publicly buy into Musk's visionary and leadership/motivation ability.
  • SpaceX and Boring Co are still private
  • Musk hates dealing with the market as his boss after what they put him through growing Tesla. Shorts especially.
  • He doesn't need wall street money anymore. He can get near limitless private investors or self fund his non-Tesla visions (ie "funding secured")
• This might become a serious accumulation opportunity. For HODLers, if you have the dry powder, use it!

 

[Krugerrand]

I'm expecting Q3 and Q4 2020 to be profitable so S&P inclusions could happen anytime in the next 6 months.
While I would like it to happen, it is no certainty...

While it has a significant affect of the share price short term, . the fundamentals of the business and revenue growth are more important.

IMO for it to happen there are 3 key criteria:-

• A good entry price
• The element of surprise
• 100% confidence that an infinity squeeze will not happen.

The element of surprise is to make sure there is not significant front-running, not adding now may be a way to unwind some of that front running.

I don't think the share split and the $5B offering were sufficient to prevent an infinity squeeze, They were not necessarily related to S&P addition we don't know if Tesla has had any negotiations with the committee or how those negotiations went.

I was assuming there might be a quiet agreement that the $5B was just the first installment.(this might be the case)

We have to get used to speculation because people love to speculate, Battery Day has shown us that, and also that speculation can be wrong.

Bottom line S&P addition may never happen, but IMO it will happen when almost no one expects it, if I'm on the committee that is the timing I would pick.

They do run a risk that Battery Day might significantly increase the share price, so moving before Battery Day would be ideal but not at the risk of an infinity squeeze..

Sometimes it is not worth saying up all Christmas Night, it is better to get a good nights sleep and be surprised in the morning.

Speculation is entirely different than what actually happens/happened. In a matter of a handful of posts speculation turns into fact. I’ve watched it happen, quite literally, DOZENS of times over the years. As a species we suck at keeping fact from fiction. I find it annoying simply because keeping the two separate is one of my superpowers, but it does make me warm and fuzzy inside every single time I get to say the magic words.

 

[Uncle Ron]

If inclusion doesn't happen next week, I still can't make any sense of the offering. If Tesla needed cash, they would have done a traditional offering at a set price. They specifically made the offering in a way where they could benefit from the stock going up but that they would be risking the stock going down. I don't see how they would do that offering without having some sort of contact with the S&P committee. It really makes no sense.

The stock price was on a rocket going to Mars. Retail investor were getting sucked into the vortex. By stepping in with the offering Tesla signaled that they would absorb the demand above $500 and bank any profit from the excessive exuberance. And block the hedge funds from profiting from the artificial run up. If the stock price were to go way beyond a reasonable level a correction could crash so far down that retail investor would panic and bail. Hurting Tesla's reputation and the small unsophisticated investors.