Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jerry33]

Anyone else got the feeling that battery day is being over hyped?

Depends on who you are. If you're an investor, then no lots of cool technology should be announced. If you're an analyst, chances are you won't be impressed as it will be way over your pay grade and you won't understand it. (Unless new product is announced. e.g. Plaid orders for S and X open tomorrow.)

 

[jerry33]

Jeez. Seriously. Are ALL these people corrupt?

Yes. That shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone.

 

[jerry33]

I just don't get why an inclusion would take place on Tuesday if it didint today what does a 3 day weekend have to do with anything?

Europe always opens before our next trading day won't they always have the edge

A few hours is different than a full day of trading plus the next day.

 

[Singuy]

Dear fellow investors,

could it be that S&P didn't include Tesla, because of the quite newly gained insane PE ratio of over 1000?

I myself am invested since the old days and I myself valued this last month's as a non sustainable growth story in regards to the stock price. I still remember the dot.com era where Amazon was also skyrocketing detached their business up to 100 dollars around the millenium with a sharp drop to 2 dollars 2 years later. it took a decade to reach a sustainable 100 dollars valuation again.

I myself expected these 450 billion valuation of Tesla in 4-5 years from now on and not within a couple of months.

So in summary I can understand that the S&P doesn't want to include Tesla to protect the institutional funds, which may get in clash with their customers. I can imagine that a 100+ million dollar rich person does only want to preserve their wealth and wants to have stable companies in regards to their valuation, which don't tenfold within a year.

On the other hand Etsy is a speculative investment too, but at least it's small and doesn't effect the overall portfolio based on the S&P 500 of these institutional funds.

So I think too that this non inclusion is not fair, but I can reproduce the think process of the S&P 500 responsibles too.

I'm not interested in retirement and have a very good paid job, I would work even if I would life in 1980 UDSSR and not getting much money beside some communist pocket money. So I don't care about the Tesla stock price. I know that Tesla will be huge in 20 years like Amazon is today. I hope no one has looses or is forced to sell from a hogh entry point at these high valuations in the past weeks.

I'm a quite reader and I will read from time to time what you have to say.

Peace be uppon the benevolent among you.

Tesla stock movement is probably nonsensical and the committee knows it. Looking at Etsy, I didn't see their market cap x 5 in anticipation for any S&P inclusion even though they obviously qualify. Just like how the option market is so crazy with Tesla that MM having to pump or putting a break on the sp just to prevent catastrophe. I actually don't see this action all that much on Fridays with any of my other holdings except for Tesla.

So there are a lot of gamblers wanting big gains on the back of this inclusion and everyone knows it. So my guess is they are trying to wash these gamblers away by first having Tesla increase liquidity and then being unpredictable so market cap can fall to something more reasonable just to be more responsible for all the indexers. And if Tesla hovers around say 400 anyways because that is what people think is reasonable then it can be added. But it needs to wash out the gamblers first (however this is Tesla, it's a gamblers paradise).

 

[juanmedina]

Check this out: https://twitter.com/VGrinshpun/status/1302100259674390530

Looks like Consumer Reports is stooping to new lows as they falsify their reporting to make FSD look bad.

Wow stuff like this really makes me upset .

 

[elasalle]

East Coast --> EU deliveries this quarter.

 

[larmor]

Why is everyone acting like non inclusion come 9/21 is set in stone? There’s a whole other week thru 9/11 for the announcement. All they announced yday were the companies being added into the 500 that were deleted from the 400.

Google Image Result for https://media1.tenor.com/images/0a6182efc5ec93a6242b570f81394c0e/tenor.gif?itemid=11098164

 

[Krugerrand]

I believe we should have patience and wait for what happens next week.

It's hard to imagine why they did the $5bn capital raise if there is no need to. That does not make any sense to me although they did it in the past a similar good opportunity but it was of good use at that time. There will be plenty of cash on hand in Q3 and Q4. That $5bn raise almost points to a deal with the commission.

What doesn’t make sense to me is that you’d post this. Tesla did NOT do a capital raise. They announced the terms of a possible future capital raise.

That’s different.
Words matter.

It’s posting in such a manner as above that turns speculation/discussion/musing of potential S&P inclusion into make-believe fact, which then blows up into the fiasco we have now.

 

[st_lopes]

Bet, student question... you'd write them in the money (if so why), or am I reading this wrong? Thanks!

Premium on an ITM put would be significant. He’s betting that it will expire above that price.

 

[traxila]

Tesla stock movement is probably nonsensical and the committee knows it. Looking at Etsy, I didn't see their market cap x 5 in anticipation for any S&P inclusion even though they obviously qualify. Just like how the option market is so crazy with Tesla that MM having to pump or putting a break on the sp just to prevent catastrophe. I actually don't see this action all that much on Fridays with any of my other holdings except for Tesla.

So there are a lot of gamblers wanting big gains on the back of this inclusion and everyone knows it. So my guess is they are trying to wash these gamblers away by first having Tesla increase liquidity and then being unpredictable so market cap can fall to something more reasonable just to be more responsible for all the indexers. And if Tesla hovers around say 400 anyways because that is what people think is reasonable then it can be added. But it needs to wash out the gamblers first (however this is Tesla, it's a gamblers paradise).

SP was in the mid 200s and sliding when split announcement came. Didn’t seem people were counting on S and P inclusion then. How much of this run is about the S and P? We are down from the mid 500s in premarket action.

I agree that the S and P entities are cognizant of the fact that they could become bagholders and are trying to mitigate it by delaying and waiting for the impatient traders to move on. But this is not the first time they have to deal with this issue. It would not be the first time they got to hold the bag either (eg yhoo). Granted, previous inclusions were not for such a large MC, and in this way it is unprecedented.

They could wait another quarter on the basis that they need to see ‘real’ earnings as opposed to the ‘fake’ ones we have seen because of credits. But won’t they have even worse issues then?

Anyone paying attention can see huge cash flows being generated by TSLA going forward, assuming the global economy does not collapse. Starting, I believe, with the quarter we are in right now.

Obviously a tough call for the S and P, but either you are an index representative of the market or you are not. Refusing to include TSLA has different consequences, yet consequences they are.

It might be ridiculous to say that the giants that are the S and P have something to lose here, but what exactly do you do and say when in a few short years there is a trillion dollar homegrown US company out there that is not in your index?

TSLA will be in the S and P. The idea that the S and P can at this point sneak TSLA in when no one is paying attention is laughable. It is bite the bullet time for them. Pick a day and do it.

 

[st_lopes]

One somber observation for all those saying yesterday’s announcement was just shuffling up and down indexes... most other companies enter the index via a shuffle. That’s the point. You gradually move up index as the company grows.

I want Tesla to be added just as much as the next guy, but let’s not be blind to some realities. Reality is, you can’t predict an inclusion date. It could happen Tuesday, it could happen Friday, if could happen in December, it could happen next year. Only constant, it will eventually happen. The float will eventually contract.

Buy and Hold. Events like these are just blips. Tesla is growing into its valuation (that moment where value investors say oh *sugar*) and the next month will solidify that growth story regardless.

 

[Singuy]

SP was in the mid 200s and sliding when split announcement came. Didn’t seem people were counting on S and P inclusion then. How much of this run is about the S and P? We are down from the mid 500s in premarket action.

I agree that the S and P entities are cognizant of the fact that they could become bagholders and are trying to mitigate it by delaying and waiting for the impatient traders to move on. But this is not the first time they have to deal with this issue. It would not be the first time they got to hold the bag either (eg yhoo). Granted, previous inclusions were not for such a large MC, and in this way it is unprecedented.

They could wait another quarter on the basis that they need to see ‘real’ earnings as opposed to the ‘fake’ ones we have seen because of credits. But won’t they have even worse issues then?

Anyone paying attention can see huge cash flows being generated by TSLA going forward, assuming the global economy does not collapse. Starting, I believe, with the quarter we are in right now.

Obviously a tough call for the S and P, but either you are an index representative of the market or you are not. Refusing to include TSLA has different consequences, yet consequences they are.

It might be ridiculous to say that the giants that are the S and P have something to lose here, but what exactly do you do and say when in a few short years there is a trillion dollar homegrown US company out there that is not in your index?

TSLA will be in the S and P. The idea that the S and P can at this point sneak TSLA in when no one is paying attention is laughable. It is bite the bullet time for them. Pick a day and do it.

Split announcement some people saw it as a precursor for inclusion. The true tell is probably from the sp hitting a wall right after the 5 billion raise even though it was something everyone wanted.

There's a lot of funny money in Tesla where market cap are changing by the hundreds of billion due to news detached from fundamentals, and fundamental news like excellent q2 earnings did nothing to the sp.

 

[Zero CO2]

Exactly. I don't know why people are looking at it as a capital raise or an offering, etc. Tesla simply said, 'We might or might not be selling $5B of our stock at some indeterminate time in the future if it suits us to do so."

That $5B in shares is not available to anyone... actually, it's quite similar to inclusion in the S&P500 not being available to anyone until the committee decides... In fact, Tesla may well be saying, 'Two can play that game.'

Elon has repeated over and over it is really hard to spend $billions effectively .. this is a perfect plan... Telsa has the option to raise incremental capital $$$ when they believe they can put it to effective use

 

[Krugerrand]

But there are clearly scenarios where the stock price could halve before going on to greater heights and we as investors need to be positioned to handle that.

No I don’t. As an investor, I’ve been positioned for 8 bloody years. Exactly how many more SP halvings and greater SP heights do you think I need to experience before being positioned to handle another one?

What you meant to say is that short term speculators and gamblers, those wanting to play with risky options controlled by the whimsy of various Wall Street characters, need to be prepared for such price action otherwise they take the chance of having their trading accounts wiped out.

The only investors who can be hurt by SP halving are those who need money during a very specific time frame and that time frame happens to be when the SP falls below a level that will net them the monetary value they require. But I’m going to assume that since they were smart enough to invest in Tesla long term, they’re smart enough to have preplanned an appropriate exit strategy to mitigate for that risk.

Or by investor preparedness did you mean we need to sell our lightly used worldly possessions stored in closets, attics, basements and garages so we might have cash on hand to buy even more stock during these future halvings? Because that actually sounds like excellent advice.

 

[traxila]

Split announcement some people saw it as a precursor for inclusion. The true tell is probably from the sp hitting a wall right after the 5 billion raise even though it was something everyone wanted.

There's a lot of funny money in Tesla where market cap are changing by the hundreds of billion due to news detached from fundamentals, and fundamental news like excellent q2 earnings did nothing to the sp.

TSLA momo stock. Looks for reasons to change directions and then continues for longer than people expect. ‘Everyone’ did not want a PR on a cap raise.

If not for the 5B PR which gave everyone a reason to turn, the SP probably would have hit 600 and would be no lower than the mid 400s now, if not 500.

The S and P cannot surprise with TSLA in the index. They give everyone at least a week’s warning. The insanity will occur regardless.

 

[dw4ngg]

Google Image Result for https://media1.tenor.com/images/0a6182efc5ec93a6242b570f81394c0e/tenor.gif?itemid=11098164

Someone else shared this link. Not sure if the proposed changes were accepted or not.

https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/d...y-index-rebalancing-schedule-consultation.pdf

“Distribution of pro- forma files will begin two weeks prior to the rebalancing effective date. Pro- forma files will be delivered daily up to the day prior to the rebalancing effective date.“

 

[dc_h]

Named after my mother on the fifth 84 years ago.

But spelled like an Amurican, as Kennedy used to say.

Happy birthday Professor

 

[Chickenlittle]

Bought my 8th tesla. Knew it was coming when we got my daughter a Y and wife was jealous. Was extremely surprised that wall chargers and mobile chargers are sold out. Must be making a lot of cars not to keep up with production of these

 

[llirk]

I sold 9/4 390 puts earlier this week that I didn't buy back for .02 by the close. Wanna take bets on me being assigned with an AH price below 390?

The results are in:
Account: xxxx-xxxx Your options position 5 TSLA Sep 04 '20 $390 Put have expired. This position no longer appears in your Portfolio and you will see this transaction on your upcoming E*TRADE Securities monthly statement. For details, see order #689 on the Orders page.

Now, on to more important things... can you believe they didn't add ZM to the S&P 500 yesterday?

 

[Mengy]

Buy and Hold. Events like these are just blips.

Exactly. Long term TSLA is going up, WAY up. What happens next week or next month are just bumps in the road up the mountainside to where it is going.

If anything next week might become a great opportunity to buy more shares!