Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Gwgan]

Does anyone have an outlook for TSLA individually and in context of the broader market next week? @anthonyj

Wil max-pain have more impact on the third Friday than usual? Options Expiration Calendar 2020
Will leaked rumored battery day info make waves? Battery Day

 

[StateoftheArt]

That would have been more of a handout to GM/Ford/FCA, to enable them to sell more compliance EVs. Tesla will quickly blow through a 600K unit cap, with only marginal long term benefit.

Going forward, Tesla will accomplish its mission even without government support. As an investor, I'm more concerned about government interference. Being forced to keep Fremont closed this past Spring was a prime example. Having to allow automotive labor unions would be problematic (and all the more reason to push for Alien Dreadnought). Forcing Elon to incrementally sell off his Tesla stake to pay a "billionaire tax" would be unhelpful and wrong.

Exactly this. Time for people to wake up and realize they are being hoodwinked with all the virtuous talk. When you get into the nitty gritty and start peeling away the onion you realize the unintended consequences of your choice will actually do more total harm than good. The lockdown approach to covid is fine example of the implementation of policy not focused on the total picture. Same thing will happen with the environment.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Wil max-pain have more impact on the third Friday than usual? Options Expiration Calendar 2020
Will leaked battery day info make waves?

Yes! As opposed to having no effect whatsoever, max-pain will have a slight effect. And whatever effect it has will be limited to situations where there is low volume, no news, macros are not making a big move, and it's in the last few minutes of the day.

Even then, notice how all the predictions of "we'll close at 382!" weren't even close yesterday when the first three items were certainly true.

I doubt that any battery day news will have much effect. Are you talking about some specific leaked info?

 

[Knightshade]

That's how the anti-trust laws are supposed to work. Doesn't always pan out that way.

...can you cite any examples of companies with less than a 1% share of their primary market being hit with anti-trust laws?

Unless they only look at electric cars, which you can bet that the forces that don't like Tesla will push the politicians to do.

This makes even less sense... Tesla is certainly a leader, but they're nowhere near a monopoly.

There's numerous other EV makers....both existing (GM, Nissan, VW, etc) AND startups younger than Tesla (Lucid for example).... clearly the market is offering options (however inferior for the most park) and not blocking new entries either.

There's also numerous suppliers of EV vehicle batteries....(in fact officially Tesla doesn't even supply batteries at all yet- they buy from Panasonic and LG just as other can do)

The fact Tesla's doing a better job at many of these things doesn't make them a "monopoly" in any sense whatsoever, let alone an illegal one.

You appear to be making up a problem that simply does not exist.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Showed this post to my wife; she explained: “Tesla is the only American car company that doesn’t need help.”

She’s definitely a keeper!!!!

 

[Gwgan]

Are you talking about some specific leaked info?

See edited post.

 

[bhtooefr]

With options, when switching I don't have to trigger tax event (sell to close triggers that).

When switching, you're selling to close that option position and buying to open a new option position, as far as I'm aware. Your broker letting you do it in one transaction is just making it so that you can do the trade as a discrete operation, rather than as two trades. (I am not a tax professional, however.)

I guess if you're doing it at a loss (relative to the original position's cost basis), you can claim a wash sale, and carry the loss into the new position's cost basis under the substantially identical security provisions.

 

[Unpilot]

NPR - today: Longtime Climate Science Denier Hired At NOAA

Where is the sad/pissed off button!?!

 

[Unpilot]

Even then, notice how all the predictions of "we'll close at 382!" weren't even close yesterday

Well horse shoes and grenades aside it was within in 97%.

 

[JustSaying]

But the ICE manufacturers have the monopoly on . . . stupid.

So doesn't that make things fair.

Didn't Tesla just build a "better mousetrap"?

 

[Knightshade]

Will leaked rumored battery day info make waves? Battery Day

Appears to include speculation of tech Elon has explicitly debunked already

 

[SPadival]

Indeed, I have a lot of empathy here.

When I first put some decent money into $TSLA (€60k in 2016), my wife and I had the hope that it would grow enough to buy a summerhouse in Denmark, so 3x, 4x would be enough. In fact for much of the last 4.5 years it hung around 1x-2x the original investment, even dropped into the red last June, but wifey and I always said "if we lose it all, it doesn't matter" - let's face it, €60k, or more like €100k with additional purchases, isn't life-changing money, plus we both have well-paid jobs.

Then, in the space of a year, not only has the core-shares account jumped to around 15x initial investment, but my stupid trading account went from $3500 to $1.2m, yes, I kid you not, 35,000% gains, 350x. Total portfolio value as of close 31st August, $2.7m, pre-market 1st September we were at $540, I said to the wife "if this holds we'll be above $3m".

This is now serious money. This is life-changing. This was enough money not to buy a summerhouse, but to buy a house in Brussels, and for me to consider retirement.

So then to see that drop, over 5 days, due to the a-holes at the S&P and the a-holes speculating the stock, was galling, it hurt. It hurt for a lot of us, I'm sure, not all. The pure HODL-ers, who likely have tens-of-millions, are fine, but as I have some short-term needs, it was a stomach-punch blow, regardless of how crazy the run-up was, and I spend most of last week feeling physically sick as a result.

It hurt lots.

Yes, I know we were probably over-valued, but still. And yes I know it will recover and go higher, probably.

But it still hurt, even after nearly 5 years of being in this game.

Did I sell, hell no!

First world problems! .. I have one too. I made so much realised capital gains from sh1tcalls in the first 3 months of the financial year (July-June in Australia) that I will be paying the top marginal tax rate of 45% for the rest of the year’s income (not complaining)

 

[MC3OZ]

I agree with Stephen on Tesla becoming the largest car maker in the world by 2026-2027.

There are 2 factors, Tesla sales growing, competition sales shrinking.

 

[SoGA Fan Club]

Exactly this. Time for people to wake up and realize they are being hoodwinked with all the virtuous talk. When you get into the nitty gritty and start peeling away the onion you realize the unintended consequences of your choice will actually do more total harm than good. The lockdown approach to covid is fine example of the implementation of policy not focused on the total picture. Same thing will happen with the environment.

My gosh, that's a lot of words, yet you said nothing. WTF?

 

[ClimateOptimst]

Thank you for sharing.

I believe the level of hurt is often correlated with the % of net worth in TSLA instead of total $ invested. Even if one has $50M invested in TSLA, if that is 100% of their investments, losing $20M of that over a week still causes pain.

Just a thought

Length of time one's owned tesla is another significant covariate. Once you've owned it for a year or two, most have accumulated enough wealth and psychological scar tissue from ups and downs that new ups and downs are less of a deal. the long term trend is up so no point sweating too much of the day to day stuff thats mostly noise

 

[SoGA Fan Club]

Dem actually included bill to extend $7500 to 600K unit cap but Orange/GOP blocked it.

Why not unlimited if the goal is to sell EVs?

 

[Knightshade]

Why not unlimited if the goal is to sell EVs?

The premise was to encourage early developments to get price parity (or superiority with ICE).... essentially trying to prevent consumers from paying a tax for picking an EV over an ICE vehicle.

As it turned out, everyone but Tesla sat around with their thumbs up their rear waiting for someone ELSE to figure out how to make cheap EVs before they wanted to get involved.


Arguably what would've made more sense instead of a # of units cap would be a dated cap.

All EVs sold through 2022 get the $7500 credit. If you're fast/early to market with a good car you get to make a LOT of sales with the credit.

If you're slow, you don't.


Instead the # of cars system kinda rewards LATE adopters since they get to wait longer before getting into the market and now they get a $7500 discount against the folks who moved early like Tesla.

It's why the Mach E is competitively priced (post credit) with the Y instead of being "WTF would anyone buy that??" more expensive.

 

[Knightshade]

I agree with Stephen on Tesla becoming the largest car maker in the world by 2026-2027.

There are 2 factors, Tesla sales growing, competition sales shrinking.

So that'd require what roughly 11 million cars (toyota and VW have been around 10.something mil in recent years)

Using the nice 50% yoy growth chart (and assuming Tesla is at ~500k this year) then Tesla doesn't get there until 2028....

2026 has em at about 5.7 million, and I don't see the larger other makers contracting by 50% by then... even 2027 only gets you to 8.5 million which still requires ~20% unit contraction by both Toyota and VW.... which only really is possible if the vast majority of ALL new Tesla sales comes from those 2 specifically (or someone else magically begins grabbing a ton of sales from them as well)


Now, 2028 gets you there, assuming you buy 50% unit sales growth every year through then


Sales chart with 50% YoY numbers included below to credit the original poster

Vehicles per Year


2020 500K

2021 750K

2022 1125K

2023 1687K

2024 2531K

2025 3796K

2026 5695K

2027 8543K

2028 12824K

2029 19221K

2030 28832K.

 

[OrthoSurg]

The difficulties start when your mind begins spending all those paper gains on nice things like a new Tesla, a bigger house, a boat, a vacation home or you even start thinking about an early retirement. You start getting too much attached to the money and then it hurts a lot more when those paper gains evaporate. I’ve been there, it causes you to take the wrong decisions. The best thing to do, imho, is to stay detached from the buying power of the stock gains, until you actually plan on selling.

I’m glad it dropped.
I could buy more at a discounted price.
And I am to young to retire, even if it pisses me off to work all night some nights on call.
But in 15 years I will be ready for a big fat retirement my friend.

 

[AperiodicCoder]

I just posted my first post with the Top 50 Roundtable posts for the past week: Roundtable Roundup

Hope you all find this as useful as I do!