Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jerry33]

I agree, but perception is reality to people that don't own an EV. I personally don't think it is a problem, but I wouldn't mind faster charging times. I hear it from people all the time about why they don't want a Tesla ("takes too long to charge", "not practical for a road trip", etc). Also read that a lot. Whether we perceive it as true or not, it is holding back EV adoption.

Correct, but bear in mind that before this objection the issue was not enough range. These go hand in hand, but the range objection is slowly being resolved. Range is still not where it needs to be, which is 350 miles at 85 mph. Since charging speeds reduce with increase in battery capacity, solving either one will also solve the other.

 

[Dancing Lemur]

The taller Tesla cells will also provide a middle ground between a single pack and the doubled up pack that has been proposed previously for the Roadster.

 

[Ocelot]

OFF TOPIC

One can wonder if autopilot makes things more or less safe in the short term.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmo...a-ponoka-speeding-dangerous-driving-1.5727828

 

[jerry33]

So grandma lives 960 miles away and while driving you average 60 mph. You stop to charge for 20 minutes every 200 miles, that's 80 minutes of charging (i.e. at 200, 400, 600 and 800 miles into the trip; 4 charging breaks). Total drive + charging time = 17h20m. If the charging time is reduced to 5 minutes you'll save one hour on the trip (4 stops x 15 minutes). Now you're down to 16h20m. But that also means you'll have to add in some time for bathroom breaks and meals whereas before you did this while the car was charging so you'll likely not even save one hour. So for an extremely long day driving, you'll save one hour at best. Is that really the difference between a one day and two day trip?

To obtain 200 miles of range it takes more than 20 minutes. Usually it's closer to an hour (most SCs are V2). Bathroom breaks and meals are basically free charging times because you are charging at those times. Fortunately, many SCs are 100 miles apart, which does only take 15 minutes. 200 miles apart is an issue.

 

[Todesbuckler]

Does anyone have some long term projections on share price?

Estimated end of 2021, end of 2022, etc based on tesla's current road map? I haven't found many that try to estimate including energy, storage, and solar. ARK is helpful. I'm also curious to hear from members here.

Thanks!

I created a crude and conservative model until 2023 with an expected share price of 700 Dollar in 2023 based on a PEG of 1 or alternatively a 400-800 Dollar share price based on a PE of 30-60. Please be aware that I view my assumptions as cautious biased towards smaller growth in revenues and margin. Personally, I use this model to estimate a lower bound for the share price.

Here is the full model:
(2021 could also be above 1 Mil. deliveries compared to my model with 950k).

 

[wnorris]

FERC passes a rule to allow Distributed Energy Resources to bid in to the power market. Long overdue, and this is great news just in time for battery day.

A short thread here.

https://twitter.com/MatchasmMatt/status/1306602705125814273?s=19

Edit: Do click thru and read Neil's original thread that's quoted above! This was widely expected, but good to see it go over the finish line.

This is great news. Tesla has been pushing for this for years. Hopefully this opens the door for some of what we will hear about next week.

Tesla to FERC: Energy Storage, DERs Enhance Grid Resilience - Renewable Energy World

Note: article is from 2018

"In its comments, Tesla highlighted several “real-world examples of energy storage and DERs providing resilient electric service to end-use customers, both directly and through maintaining the bulk power system.”

Tesla noted the benefits that the 100-MW/129-MWh Powerpack battery system at Neoen’s Hornsdale Wind Farm in South Australia has delivered to Australia’s National Energy Market. As a result of significant blackouts in South Australia in 2016 and 2017, Telsa was selected in a competitive bidding processes to build the project, which was commissioned last December.

The battery system, Tesla said, provides energy arbitrage; reserve energy capacity, as contracted by the South Australian government; frequency control ancillary services; and network loading control ancillary services, which detects high flows on a major interconnecting transmission line and triggers the battery to start discharging as quickly as possible to prevent the South Australia power system from separating from the rest of the national energy market."

 

[willow_hiller]

On the back of this n00b question another n00b question.

I never went through the process with my broker to get ownership proof to be able to get the code to view. I figured there would be some way to stream it. Is this foolish thinking? If yes, what exactly do I need to do again? lol

Thanks! <3

There's a space for the livestream embedded in this page just below the header: 2020 Annual Meeting of Stockholders and Battery Day | Tesla

Just below that are instructions for "virtually attending" the meeting, if you want to "vote in person," but it's not necessary just to watch the stream at that link, or to vote your shares by proxy ahead of time.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I love how everyone, "professional" and retail investor alike, is plotting 2024/25 SP based on cars. NOBODY MAKES MONEY SELLING CARS. Energy will generate far more profits in 2025 than the automotive side.

Of course FSD could pull in more than both by 2025, but I don't see FSD being a major component of people's models either. It feels a lot like people trying to model our sustainable energy future by referencing today's fossil setup. Or talk about BP "transitioning" profitably to a renewable energy company. We're just extrapolating today and missing the bigger picture of telescoping evolution.

People in 1937 also had a pretty good idea what it would be like in 1942.

 

[mikevbf]

Their Uber Bull model is our "base" scenario for the average TMC'er here lol

Yeah I agree because the "Uber Bull" price target of 1098 is based on 2,780,000 annual unit production in 2025 where Elon is expecting 4 million. My conclusion is there is still a lot of profit to make on TSLA based on the difference between what Wall St still expects and what is more likely to happen. As it becomes more obvious that Tesla is headed closer to 4 million units in 2025, what do you think the analysts' new price targets might be?

Put another way: where Credit Suisse sees a 400 price target, I see a clear path to a TSLA 1 trillion dollar market cap and it's going to happen way before 2025.

 

[Knightshade]

Is the Panasonic deal enough extra for Y in Texas? Panasonic 2170s at 35gwh going to 54gwh for 3 and Y does not get you to Y having enough batteries for selling more than S, X and 3 combined from Panasonic alone. And what batteries would you make in Berlin, 2170s or the new Roadrunner?

What you said was "Am I the only one who thinks the Roadrunner cells will go in the Y just as soon or sooner than Plaid S and X?"


If RR cells are going into a Y built in Texas, then obviously that's not as soon or sooner than Plaid S- which is likely going to be next week....since Texas wont' be building any Ys this year.

Ditto Berlin.

So I'm not sure why you're bringing up factories that won't even be online this year when your original claim was you thought the Y would get this before Plaid S?


Again- Kato is small.

It can supply (at least) Plaid S/X... MAYBE it can do all S/X, or maybe Plaid and Semi. It can't do Y (or even 3).

So that tells us the Y is not getting RR cells "as soon or sooner" than Plaid S.

If you want to discuss if/when a Y might get it- that's another discussion...It absolutely makes sense that Tesla would take what they learn on the small RR line at Kato and use it to build a LARGE RR line at GigaBerlin.

But that won't be building any cars this year and it's certainly not "as soon or sooner" than Plaid S will in answer to your original question.

 

[Dancing Lemur]

People in 1937 also had a pretty good idea what it would be like in 1942.

That’s highly dependent on which country you were living in then.

 

[dl003]

I love how everyone, "professional" and retail investor alike, is plotting 2024/25 SP based on cars. NOBODY MAKES MONEY SELLING CARS. Energy will generate far more profits in 2025 than the automotive side.

Of course FSD could pull in more than both by 2025, but I don't see FSD being a major component of people's models either. It feels a lot like people trying to model our sustainable energy future by referencing today's fossil setup. Or talk about BP "transitioning" profitably to a renewable energy company. We're just extrapolating today and missing the bigger picture of telescoping evolution.

People in 1937 also had a pretty good idea what it would be like in 1942.

Are you saying Tesla won't make money selling cars? If so, what's your basis?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Yeah I agree because the "Uber Bull" price target of 1098 is based on 2,780,000 units where Elon is expecting 4 million. My conclusion is there is still a lot of profit to make on TSLA based on the difference between what Wall St still expects and what is more likely to happen. As it becomes more obvious that Tesla is headed closer to 4 million units in 2025, what do you think the analysts' new price targets might be?

As TalkingMule stated above, 0 analysts are factoring in Energy and FSD.....which could change the valuation of Tesla exponentially. I think hitting 3.5-4 million vehicles in 2025 will give about 1,200-1,400 share price in 2025, but again that's just the Auto side of Tesla. For me, I'm estimating a 1,400 share price in 2025 as a base level with lots of upside potential. But it's nearly impossible to predict what Energy growth is going to be, what FSD/Robotaxi state will be, etc....in 2025.

 

[Krugerrand]

I'm skeptical about "investor comprehension", an oxymoron for those outside this forum; its a crap shoot weather or not enough average broker/investors register the value of battery day enough to affect the SP like we think it will. It's harder to understand than a simple P/D or earnings report $x.xx per share.

But it doesn’t matter if *they* understand or not - if you aren’t gambling. If you want to gamble, knock your socks off but there will not be any accolades if you guess right anymore that there will be sympathy if you guess wrong. Not from me at least.

It’s really simple how this will work; if the reveal is going to immediately and positively effect the bottom line in a measurable way, the SP explodes. If there will be a delay of a quarter or two before positive bottom line implications then the SP response will be muted. Anything more future looking than that and down it goes. We all know that’s how analysts, Wallstreet, etc... work with the rare exception.

So the only thing you have to figure out is how long is the wait from what Tesla shows on Tuesday to it hitting the bottom line. For that you might consider historical data from previous announcements. That’s easy.

The final and only question becomes: Is it different this time? Bet according to how you answer that question. Or do the smart thing; simply hold and enjoy the day.

 

[Robocop]

Just had a 5-hour work meeting scheduled during the entirety of the battery day stream on Tuesday. Guess I'll be watching it later. Feel like I dropped my birthday cake or something.

 

[UncaNed]

I completely agree. I would like for "lower priority" chargers that do say 75kW max charging with a longer threshold before idle charges apply. (Idle for 30min before charging, as an example.) If I need a quicker charge, I can go to the v3 charger. Either that or the ability to set a maximum charge rate that's lower if a low percentage of chargers are being used.

Good idea. This depends on the real estate cost.

 

[mblakele]

Mostly another “competition is coming” article, but ends by acknowledging that it’s Tesla’s game to lose.

Who will rule the Teslaverse?

 

[humbaba]

Perhaps you are referring charging speed over a certain rate...like it doesn't matter that much if you can get 150kW vs 250Kw, but I can tell you, as an 85D owner whose supercharging rate has been capped, it really matters a lot when your charging goes to 56Kw within 10 minutes at SOC still < 40%, then down to 30kW at < 75%. Excruciating.

yeah, apparently I did not make it clear enough. I'm talking about Tesla's superchargers and I agree that the 30kW you mention is too slow. The main point I was trying to make was that from the driver's perspective charging that is faster than his stop duration is wasted, but that from Tesla's perspective faster charging is better because it improves throughput and thus efficiency (I mentioned land-use, but it is more than that).

I had some ridiculously low charge rates in early 2019 from the arctic cold. Tesla has improved this through battery preconditioning.

The ancillary point was that, as more Tesla vehicles are out in the wild, I expect non-owner perception to shift as they become acquainted with more and more owners who have experienced what I describe and the realization will shift into demand for domicile charging. While work and destination charging can make sense what has mattered more to me on my trips is getting a charge at my final destination, which is the home of family or friend and limited to trickle charging. Also, external outlets are often not very good and frequently I've had difficulty with charging interruptions.

Though I expect these destination charging problems to diminish over time as EV adoption increases, they are more significant to an owner than super charging in 5 minutes rather than 15.

 

[Mo City]

Am I alone in finding myself continually multiplying all the price movements by 5? It's taking me a long time to get used to these post split numbers and even longer to these movements when you multiply them by 5.

Took me 3-4 days. I thought it would take a lot longer.

 

[humbaba]

I completely agree. I would like for "lower priority" chargers that do say 75kW max charging with a longer threshold before idle charges apply. (Idle for 30min before charging, as an example.) If I need a quicker charge, I can go to the v3 charger. Either that or the ability to set a maximum charge rate that's lower if a low percentage of chargers are being used.

I really don't see Tesla allowing owners to set a maximum charge rate. It is in Tesla's interest to have the highest throughput. However, if Tesla (or someone else) were to do a sonic-style drive in eatery then a "slow" super charger could make sense.