Knightshade
Well-Known Member
The kato one? I would HOPE it's up and running by now... AFAIK they're planning to do a tour of it Tuesday.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
The kato one? I would HOPE it's up and running by now... AFAIK they're planning to do a tour of it Tuesday.
And this is where the discussion on travelling and supercharging ends. It has not been going anywhere for a while now.
Congo Line
(not the dance)
dc_h
Active Member
I was torn between posting funny versus informative, but it does provide great insight into the analysts thought process. I do wonder if the front line team doing the math have more bullish models, but are held back by their leadership? I think the bull scenario is a 2022 or 2023 target for Tesla and the Uberbull case is a 2023-2024 target. With Shanghai Phase 2 coming in line in the next few weeks and Berlin likely to have some early production in Q1, I think these bull cases will start shifting left by 2 years in these models.
My bear case for 2021 beats their 2025 uber bear case:
Fremont 500,000 combined cars in 2021 (250,000 M3, 200,000 MY & 50,000 SX)
Shanghai 350,000 combined cars in 2021 (200,000 MIC M3 and 150,000 MIC MY)
Berlin 100,000 Model Y
Austin 50,000 somethings
My expectation for 2022 is about the same as their expected model for 2025. There could be some delays, but I think Shanghai, Berlin and Austin can all beat these numbers in 2022.
Fremont 600,000 combined cars
Shanghai 600,000 combined cars
Berlin 350,000 Model MIG MY & M3
Austin 100,000 Cybertrucks, 100,000 Model Y, 25,000 Semi
Plant X: 50,000 Somethings in China Plant 2 or India Plant 1
Pull over? Autopilot, dude!
Still on sale....anything below $1k is on sale
Yep, I totally agree with you. Just not sure we will reach $1000 this year
And it turns out, my super conservative husband - who I have written here about before - with his entire portfolio in bonds managed by Fidelity, wants to get in the TSLA game! He actually took the trouble last week of calling Fidelity to release 100K of his money from the bonds for him to trade. He just texted me that he purchased 100 shares in his account. I had to call him to confirm that he understands that this is a volatile investment, he could lose a big chunk tomorrow - says he is OK with it. Jeez, hope I don't have to listen to continuous whining if the stock does drop
As for me, I decided to try a different strategy - sold puts @420 for next Friday with cash to cover the puts - got $38 each. If battery day turns out to be a 'sell the news' event and SP drops below 420, I will get the shares for cost basis of 382. If it is a 'mind-blown' event that propels the SP up, well I get to keep the premium.
Now the question is, should I go for some highly speculative calls for Nov/Dec expiration? These would cover battery day and P&D report. The IV is so high and the premiums are really expensive - but can be very rewarding if there is a spike in SP. Decisions decisions - such first world problems I have
My favorite is selling covered calls a month out and 30% above ATH, and than having to close them out 2 weeks later as they turned ITM. Reduces your short term capital gain taxes significantly.
I would say that Tesla purposely leaked this photo. The photo confirms only form factor which keeps things still extremely ambiguous but builds hype. This is why Elon tends to post stuff on twitter prior to a reveal in drips and drabs, and even Lucid used the same strategy. Much like an appetizer before a main course.
The monthly price chart might form a technical double-head. Everyone be cautious. I am thinking of buy some put option but still want to bet on SP holding well... what a conflicted mind.
Have you checked out @gabeincal 's excellent videos? If it is up and running the paint would still be wet - there was a huge amount of construction material on site just last week.
mekberg
Member
Yep, I totally agree with you. Just not sure we will reach $1000 this year
And it turns out, my super conservative husband - who I have written here about before - with his entire portfolio in bonds managed by Fidelity, wants to get in the TSLA game! He actually took the trouble last week of calling Fidelity to release 100K of his money from the bonds for him to trade. He just texted me that he purchased 100 shares in his account. I had to call him to confirm that he understands that this is a volatile investment, he could lose a big chunk tomorrow - says he is OK with it. Jeez, hope I don't have to listen to continuous whining if the stock does drop
As for me, I decided to try a different strategy - sold puts @420 for next Friday with cash to cover the puts - got $38 each. If battery day turns out to be a 'sell the news' event and SP drops below 420, I will get the shares for cost basis of 382. If it is a 'mind-blown' event that propels the SP up, well I get to keep the premium.
Now the question is, should I go for some highly speculative calls for Nov/Dec expiration? These would cover battery day and P&D report. The IV is so high and the premiums are really expensive - but can be very rewarding if there is a spike in SP. Decisions decisions - such first world problems I have
If he ever wants to sell you should have a standing order of DIBS.
I once did an entire presentation with my car in autopilot. Stayed in the carpool lane - the car did fine, but it was nerve racking.
No - I would not recommend anyone to ever do that unless the new version of FSD is released.
All the peer pressure to capture a share at this particular price finally won me over.
TSLA didn’t make a double head. It only looks like one in the monthly chart because we were near ATH on two consecutive days that just happened to fall in two months (8/31 and 9/1).
Yep, I totally agree with you. Just not sure we will reach $1000 this year
That's what I said the beginning of this year. Wouldn't it be cool to hit 1000 twice in one year, one pre split and once post split!
Just checking in to refresh my memory about what my thread is called....
As I thought. Investing, NOT numerology.
The next stock split cannot come soon enough for me.
/Codger
As I thought. Investing, NOT numerology.
The next stock split cannot come soon enough for me.
/Codger
Of course the macro market has not been helpful. Meanwhile, I suspect that hot money during the last couple of days has been transferred to high profile IPOs. Much of that may be due to day traders and temporary. Then tomorrow we have a Triple Witching Day, the major quarterly expiration of options and futures. Expiration related manipulation tomorrow could go either way. Early next week, anticipation of Battery Day may benefit TSLA shares. After that, much depends on what is revealed during Battery Day and the market's reaction.
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