Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Motor Mouth]

I posted a photo of exactly that, A Sonic. With the question of if it hasn't been done it should be very soon. It got nothing. But then i post OT stuff and don't play the game of numbers so I'm on a lot of "ignore" lists.
Drive up charger/eateries on the major travel routes will be money makers especially in bad weather. The car hop plugs you in, takes your order, gives you the food, picks up the tray and unplugs you, and you are on your way.

Agree - in addition to "bad weather," consider that viral issues may cause a move to great increase in outside (ie, in car) dining for long distance auto travel for the foreseeable future.

 

[Curt Renz]

MarketWatch - hour ago: Fidelity’s $230 billion man explains why he dumped Tesla shares but still bets big on Warren Buffett

Excerpt:

One big winner his fund doesn’t hold, at least among its top names, is Tesla TSLA, -2.82%, and Danoff is still kicking himself for selling too early.

In 2017 and 2018, he unloaded most of the Contrafund’s position in the electric car maker, which, according to Bloomberg News, caused him to miss out on more than $10 billion in gains. Now, he’s conflicted: Buy back in or wait and see if that $412 billion valuation comes down a bit?

“There’s no question [selling Tesla} was a mistake,” he said in a Bloomberg interview posted on Thursday. “Mistakes are part of this business… you have to learn from your mistakes. I should have said do I feel comfortable owning Tesla for the next 10 years… I should not have cut back.”

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

MarketWatch - hour ago: Fidelity’s $230 billion man explains why he dumped Tesla shares but still bets big on Warren Buffett

Excerpt:

One big winner his fund doesn’t hold, at least among its top names, is Tesla TSLA, -2.82%, and Danoff is still kicking himself for selling too early.

In 2017 and 2018, he unloaded most of the Contrafund’s position in the electric car maker, which, according to Bloomberg News, caused him to miss out on more than $10 billion in gains. Now, he’s conflicted: Buy back in or wait and see if that $412 billion valuation comes down a bit?

“There’s no question [selling Tesla} was a mistake,” he said in a Bloomberg interview posted on Thursday. “Mistakes are part of this business… you have to learn from your mistakes. I should have said do I feel comfortable owning Tesla for the next 10 years… I should not have cut back.”

Article titles "says man explains why he dumped Tesla"

Actual article doesn't say at all why he dumped his Tesla shares, only that he regrets it......lol

 

[dl003]

I'm saying Tesla profits exclusive of FSD and Energy would barely justify a $300B market cap in 2030.

Current TSLA sentiment is like saying in 2005 that Amazon will be killing it in 2010 because they'll sell all the books. Having 2-4% of the 2030 global sustainable energy market is a LOT better than selling half of it's cars(FSD implications aside).

I have to disagree
20M cars
40k ASP
25% gross margin
$200B gross profit
$20B SGA

We're easily looking at $100-150B net income from auto alone in 2030. A puny 20x multiplier gives it $2-3T valuation.

 

[ZachF]

Ford's making its electric F-150 a serious work truck in bid to set it apart from Tesla and GM pickups

“Ford plans to differentiate its upcoming electric F-150 from Tesla by retaining the vehicle’s focus on work rather than recreation”. Good luck with that

"That is why Ford is focusing on a real, tough, work truck, not like that fancy Tesla!"

*toddler pushes shopping cart into F-150, causing $2,000 of body damage*

Some additional details on the Credit Suisse upgrade to a $400 price target:

View attachment 589130

As @Mo City will point out their $400 price target "doesn't actually exist", just like Ark's $7,000 price target "doesn't exist". They both do the same thing, come up with a number of scenarios, apply a probability for each, and then calculate a combined price.

LOL, their model case assumes 1.8m in sales by 2025... Tesla will have 2m+ in capacity running by 2023 just between Fremont, Austin, Berlin and Shanghai.

 

[scaesare]

Which size is better depends on which one matches the pack dimensions better.

If the dimensions are 1242x2486, we get the opposite result:

21mm cell: 7781 cells covering 2,695,032mm^2
54mm cell: 1193 cells (same as above) covering 2,732,234mm^2 (using higher precision)

Now the 54mm cell has 1.4% higher density.

Good point. It's really a wash and the larger diameter isn't an issue...

 

[scaesare]

Got some at 420.69!

Congrats!

Oh... you meant stock... well congrats on that too!

 

[Artful Dodger]

"Tesla Battery Day Preview (enter the BFC!)" | Solving The Money Problem

 

[Tslynk67]

Stock could go up or down.......but I do think a lot of people are using the sell off action around Autonomy Day as a reference when in reality, everything about it is totally different.

- Autonomy Day happened in late April after a quarter where Tesla had numerous difficulties in overseas logistics and price drops. The overall sentiment was exponentially more negative than it is today. There was no other near term catalyst like next quarter's P/D numbers to provide a rally in the stock

- Battery Day will be happening 8 trading days before Q3 P/D numbers are out....a quarter which is expected, even by Wall St, to be a blowout

- Battery day will give information with a much clearer timeframe and clear information on how it will effect Tesla growth. Autonomy was impressive, but vague

- Annual shareholders meeting is same day as Battery Day where material information on this quarter and Tesla's full year guidance updates could be given. Along with other material information. I wouldn't be surprised if Elon slips up and vaguely suggests what they're hoping to produce in 2021

- Cash raise already happened. No threat/worry of additional dilution from what is shown on Battery Day

Indeed, plus nobody understands autonomy (well most people), and think they don't want it either ("I drive better than any frikkin' computer!"), but wait until their Tesla drives them, overnight, while they sleep, to their vacation, this will change pretty quick.

But what people do understand is: cheaper, faster, more production, longer-lasting, sales-margin, profits, etc. - these are easy sells

 

[LTC_RRR]

Sorry if I missed it but isn't this Elon tweet from last night indicating that the new cell line (Roadrunner) is up and running?

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1306491844512026624

It's a Game

 

[ZachF]

The trend is our friend.

View attachment 589179

*Final Fantasy victory music*

Good point. It's really a wash and the larger diameter isn't an issue...

I wouldn't be surprised if the tabless/capless construction allows the overall thickness of the pack to remain roughly the same.

 

[StealthP3D]

In related news : Ford changes its name to FUD.

That's a good cost-cutting move. One less chrome plated letter to put on each badge!

 

[Nocturnal]

I didn't see this posted.

Asking this from ignorance: Is it really the case at Sonic Burgers and its ilk that a car stays in what looks to me like an order slot for the entire time it takes to eat? Is that a tenable business model?

If so, and to keep this tenuously on topic, how might that model be tweaked in order to financially accommodate charging and different drivers’ preferences?

Yes. Most Sonics do have drive throughs (or at least the newer ones) but most of the business still seems to be people parking. I've always liked that myself and it's perfect in a Tesla because you can turn on Netflix. I've thought that having a few charging spots at the food stalls would be a perfect match for both parties. Fast food places are already located with easy access to main travel areas.

Perfect for the pandemic, and I believe growing quite well before that even.
SONIC Drive-In Restaurants Booming During Pandemic

 

[Cherry Wine]

Battery production export from region in Japan that supplies S/X dropped in half in August from July (previous drop presumably Covid related).

More smoke for RR production for S/X?

 

[StealthP3D]

One of the major complaints/concerns people TSLAQ has about EVs is that they take too long to charge. If that hurdle can be broken down, that would unleash a lot of demand.

FTFY. That's the first time I've seen anyone on this thread refer to "TSLAQ" as "people".

 

[ggr]

Sorry I haven't caught up today and this may belong in another thread, but someone mentioned here back in early August a lithium mining company Piedmont Lithium Limited (PLL), with a project in North Carolina and rumors of a collaboration with Tesla. I bought a few shares then. It is up 60%+ since then and 25%+ today. Anyone know of any news?

I can't find any recent news. The stock chart for today is fascinating though:

 

[Artful Dodger]

I have to disagree
20M cars
40k ASP
25% gross margin
$200B gross profit
$20B SGA

We're easily looking at $100-150B net income from auto alone in 2030. A puny 20x multiplier gives it $2-3T valuation.

Lol, no way the ASP is $40K on 20M units. More like:

• 1st 5M units $40K (all current Models)
  
• 2nd 5M units $25K (Model 2)
• 3rd 10M units $15K (Model 1)

That's $24K ASP circa 2030. Remember, at this level Tesla is selling 1 in every 4 cars in the world. Tesla's ASP has to represent the expected distribution of the whole auto market, since it will be by far the largest single constituent of that market.

Now keep in mind, these ASPs do no include FSD/autonomy. With an intrinsic value of $100K/license, Tesla will be moving to a subscription model for those products, which will produce a separate monthly income stream. Have you valued that in your calculation?

Cheers!

 

[Intl Professor]

But, to your credit, you do show a high degree of functional integrity

Old people need to husband energy. Mercifully, sex is the first to go, releasing a lot of energy for survival. Combined with memory loss, the miraculous appearance of grandchildren by a process long forgotten, is surely at least as important as the president's expectation the virus will disappear like herd mentality, er, immunity. Where would short's be without herd mentality or his support by fellow travelers?

 

[Congo Line]

Lol, no way the ASP is $40K on 20M units. More like:

• 1st 5M units $40K (all current Models)
  
• 2nd 5M units $25K (Model 2)
• 3rd 10M units $15K (Model 1)

That's $24K ASP circa 2030. Remember, at this level Tesla is selling 1 in every 4 cars in the world. Tesla's ASP has to represent the expected distribution of the whole auto market, since it will be by far the largest single constituent of that market.

Now keep in mind, these ASPs do no include FSD/autonomy. With an intrinsic value of $100K/license, Tesla will be moving to a subscription model for those products, which will produce a separate monthly income stream. Have you valued that in your calculation?

Cheers!

Has anyone modeled what margin will be on Semi and how much it could contribute to earnings?

 

[S3XY]

The tab less design can allow more thermal transfer directly to where the heat is actually generated (inside the cell). It's not about thermal contact with the outside of the cell as the heat is generated inside.

It also results in less heat generation since there are many more, shorter paths for the power flow. This means less resistance so less heat generation.