Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[chiller]

fwiw I made a max pain script that runs every hour. Will be interesting to see how it evolves tomorrow during the trading hours. The output can be seen here: http://home.pusen.org/stocks/maxpain

 

[Artful Dodger]

After-action Report: Thu, Sep 17, 2020: (Full-Day's Trading)

Headline: "TSLA Marches to the Macros"

Traded: $32,694,172,568.80 ($32.69B)
Volume: 76,887,480
VWAP: $425.22

Close $423.43 / VWAP: 99.57%
(TSLA closed BELOW today's Avg SP)
Mkt Cap: TSLA / TM = $394.556B / $188.706B = 209.09%​

TSLA 1-mth Moving Avg Market Cap: $386.46B
TSLA 6-mth Moving Avg Market Cap: $219.13B
Nota Bene: 3rd tranche of CEO comp. unlocked as of Fri, Sep 04, 2020

'Short' Report:

FINRA Volume / Total NASDAQ Vol = 60.3% (61st Percentile rank FINRA Reporting)
FINRA Short/Total Volume = 37.7% (43rd Percentile rank Shorting)
FINRA Short Exempt Volume was 0.59% of Short Volume (45th Percentile Rank)​

Comment: "MMs moved TSLA to match macro losses by the Close"

View all Lodger's After-Action Reports

Cheers!

 

[Discoducky]

From an engineers, former technical product managers' perspective, battery day seems like it will be big.

I've been holding my shares since 2012 and wow it has been a rollercoaster; but nothing this big.

Things I'm asking myself...these are high level thoughts, wish I had more time to go into details...

Why so big? It seems that alot has been building up...again, from an engineering standpoint.

Acquisitions, patents, new facilities...etc. I think the current Tesla couldn't even compete with the tech to be announced at battery day. What that means is that Tesla has a bunch of teams working on new tech inside of the company that have essentially re-invented the battery and how it operates in the drive-train. This massive re-invention results in the new tech being so much better that the old tech will need to be bled out quickly.

Did autonomy day move the stock? Kinda negative looking at the historical movements afterwards. Even through from an engineering standpoint was an amazing achievement that we are still realizing their impacts from a financial perspective (margin improvements, autonomous feature implementation speed improvements...etc) that non-engineers can wrap their heads around. Actual feature implementations are about the only thing that can move the stock.

Will it result in a bump in price? I think so as I think Tesla WILL talk about actual customer impacting features and I DO think investors are NOT expecting such advances this soon. I do NOT think it has been priced into the stock.

Will it be an eventual rollercoaster? You bet! It is amazing how easy it seems that the stock moves +/-20% these days, even at these very high prices relative to 2012 to 2014 when Tesla was actually presenting the game changing tech to the public.

 

[Fobble]

I think 140k is a safe bet and could result in a 500-550 share price. I still think there's a decent shot at 150k, which could propel the stock past 550. 155k gets us above 600 imo.

Haven't done the earnings off of those numbers but some have done estimates at 145k and it exceeds the highest wall st estimates.

Someone shared Troy's Q3 estimates, I think a few days back, but I could not find the post. Also @FrankSG put out pretty accurate numbers the last few quarters. Hope he comes up with Q3 numbers soon for cross check.

 

[FrankSG]

Someone shared Troy's Q3 estimates, I think a few days back, but I could not find the post. Also @FrankSG put out pretty accurate numbers the last few quarters. Hope he comes up with Q3 numbers soon for cross check.

I'll probably do an ER forecast after P&D, but I don't think I'll try to predict delivery #s.

I haven't spent as much time on Tesla the last few weeks, and more time on non-Tesla things. The main reason is that most of the talk has been about battery day, and we're so close to it now that I'd rather just listen to all the official information on the 22nd, rather than spend hours speculating and trying to put the pieces together.

 

[wipster]

I think 140k is a safe bet and could result in a 500-550 share price. I still think there's a decent shot at 150k, which could propel the stock past 550. 155k gets us above 600 imo.

Haven't done the earnings off of those numbers but some have done estimates at 145k and it exceeds the highest wall st estimates.

Thanks StarFox! That seems like a good baseline for deliveries to me. If they meet or exceed 145K, the financials should be excellent, even without credits. I'm hoping for a SP of at least $515 by delivery day and excellent financials should get us above $550... $600 would be fantastic! I have use for some of our recent gains and these figures would allow me to both accomplish my goals and leave the bulk of my TSLA shares in my portfolio!

 

[Thekiwi]

I think 140k is a safe bet and could result in a 500-550 share price. I still think there's a decent shot at 150k, which could propel the stock past 550. 155k gets us above 600 imo.

Haven't done the earnings off of those numbers but some have done estimates at 145k and it exceeds the highest wall st estimates.

I think the stock price / market cap is at a level where a difference of 5k-10k cars in a quarter is not going to cause any huge moves in company valuation.

You are proposing that the 5k difference between 150k cars and 155k cars would cause a $50 share price difference, which is a $47 Billion jump in company valuation (or 10% increase in market cap), for ~$250 million more in sales and ~$50 million more in gross profit.

The big valuation jumps from now will more likely be Wall Street expectations on annual deliveries for 2-3 years out changing upwards in half million or million unit increments.

 

[Fobble]

Troy's number on August 9. He had one more recent iteration the last few days that I could not find.


Here is how my estimates have changed so far in Q3. Let me clarify this table. On 22 July, my estimate was 145K for Q3, ~185.700 for Q4, and 510K for 2020. Today, on 9 Aug, my estimate is 141K for Q3, ~189,600 for Q4, and again 510K for 2020.

 

[Discoducky]

fwiw I made a max pain script that runs every hour. Will be interesting to see how it evolves tomorrow during the trading hours. The output can be seen here: http://home.pusen.org/stocks/maxpain

Added to my home screen Thank you!

 

[Thekiwi]

Troy's number on August 9. He had one more recent iteration the last few days that I could not find.


Here is how my estimates have changed so far in Q3. Let me clarify this table. On 22 July, my estimate was 145K for Q3, ~185.700 for Q4, and 510K for 2020. Today, on 9 Aug, my estimate is 141K for Q3, ~189,600 for Q4, and again 510K for 2020.

@Troy is at 144k now.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I think the stock price / market cap is at a level where a difference of 5k-10k cars in a quarter is not going to cause any huge moves in company valuation.


You are proposing that the 5k difference between 150k cars and 155k cars would cause a $50 share price difference, which is a $47 Billion jump in company valuation (or 10% increase in market cap), for ~$250 million more in sales and ~$50 million more in gross profit.

The big valuation jumps from now will more likely be Wall Street expectations on annual deliveries for 2-3 years out changing upwards in half million or million unit increments.

No I technically said 150k would get the share price past 550 and 155k would get it past 600. 150k deliveries could get it anywhere from 551-599. I'm not trying to predict exact share price numbers.

The difference between 145k and 155k, to me, will be perceived as big. Not because of the difference of 10k units, but because of what it means for Tesla's production rates going into Q4.

The impact of 10k units is completely different if its from say 130-140, 140-150, or 150-160k....because it's telling us at what production rate Tesla is at. So yes, a difference of 10k from 145-155k could result in the difference between a share price of 550 or 600

Edit: Also, while the difference of 10k units isn't that big of a deal purely from a revenue side....it is a big deal from a profit side. 10k deliveries when Tesla is well past the point of paying their operational costs means the profit of those 10k vehicles goes straight to the bottom line and contributes meaningfully to EPS

 

[S3XY]

Topsy turvy day.

Im a french fry in a baked potato world.

Butter ketchup.

 

[mrmage]

fwiw I made a max pain script that runs every hour. Will be interesting to see how it evolves tomorrow during the trading hours. The output can be seen here: http://home.pusen.org/stocks/maxpain

This is really nice. But does everyone expect TSLA to drop like a rock in January?

 

[smorgasbord]

I've noticed quite an increase in delivery time for a LR Model X, had been 3-4 wk, now 6-10 wk. I wonder if ordering one now could secure a roadrunner version at decreased price?
It's only $100 to reserve, I'll give it a chance, just as I did with Model 3, Y and CT.

Did you have success with Model 3 or Y? CT is obviously too early to tell.

I've been thinking tof holding off until morning of Battery Day to place my order.

 

[smorgasbord]

9/23 - All Competition will be back at the drawing boards

Yeah, they're probably still using drawing boards.

 

[gabeincal]

Fremont flyover as requested. Some notes:

• LOTS of cleaning up going on, shuttles are picking up what looked like line workers at the Kato buildings - I sense that the line might be running..
• Everything is being tidied up for Sept 22.
• LOTS of logistics activity going on at the Fremont factory. A lot of cars being loaded to trucks.
• New, purple boxes appeared and most cast panels disappeared near the Gigacasts.
• GA4.5 and 5 certainly don't look like 'tents' as the media is trying to picture them...

Enjoy

PS: And as always, if you find my effort useful, please consider becoming a patron at patreon.com/gabeincal

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I agree and share your concerns Fobble. As good as I think the SP reaction will be during the presentation, which will AH, I too feel there may be a let down following. However, we do have the 3rd quarter deliveries and financials following. Anyone care to share they think we're going to do on both parts and the impact it may have on the SP?

Up, down, up, down....maybe up...maybe down....but def up in the long run

 

[AlMc]

Added to my home screen Thank you!

Nice to see you posting....IIRC you have not been on 'investors' for awhile?

 

[gabeincal]

ARK kept all their TSLA today also.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Troy's number on August 9. He had one more recent iteration the last few days that I could not find.


Here is how my estimates have changed so far in Q3. Let me clarify this table. On 22 July, my estimate was 145K for Q3, ~185.700 for Q4, and 510K for 2020. Today, on 9 Aug, my estimate is 141K for Q3, ~189,600 for Q4, and again 510K for 2020.

As of 16 September, 144,000
https://twitter.com/troyteslike/status/1306130603067281408?s=21