Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[M|S|M MYP]

New IT interface widens balancing mechanism access for smaller generators | National Grid ESO

 

[Jack6591]

I’m buying today, only because I want those guys to have one more buy order to deal with.
I suppose they have a right to play bop-a-mole, I just want to send ‘em home worn out.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Maybe they are going to start applying these casting techniques to the Model 3 or S/X?

Not for the Model 3, anytime soon. Elon already said they'll switch 'eventually', but for now it makes no sense since the already have a functional system producing a profitable Model 3.

Now Models S/X is interesting. Since they have to redesign the rear subframe for the twin-mtr layout, it makes sense to also simplify production techniques to die casting at the same time. The alternative would be to spend even more money on implementing a new stamping/welding system for S/X and we already know its cheaper overall to die-cast.

We may see an example shortly after Bty Day, if the Plaid reveal is the "1 more thing".

Cheers!

 

[vikings123]

Or just getting a jump on controlling the SP and having it end up at $450 for the day.

....Probably more likely TBH

Here's today's Tech chart as of 09:30 AM

View attachment 589482

Paging @Bet TSLA. No manipulation guys it’s just normal action

IMO MMs are trying hard like to keep it bottled up. I think it will fly later in the day. I’m seeing a lot of call buying. If they keep it down today we know what that usually means for Monday.

 

[ZachF]

Not for the Model 3, anytime soon. Elon already said they'll switch 'eventually', but for now it makes no sense since the already have a functional system producing a profitable Model 3.

Now Models S/X is interesting. Since they have to redesign the rear subframe for the twin-mtr layout, it makes sense to also simplify production techniques to die casting at the same time. The alternative would be to spend even more money on implementing a new stamping/welding system for S/X and we already know its cheaper overall to die-cast.

We may see an example shortly after Bty Day, if the Plaid reveal is the "1 more thing".

Cheers!

I'm personally curious to see if the Cybertruck will have cast SS pieces. (Is that even practical? question for those here who are more experienced in metallurgy...)

 

[gabeincal]

Always worth posting Rob Maurer videos here just in case people don't religiously watch them. This is his battery day predictions. At the end of the video Rob says he left out one prediction which he believes more important than everything else he mentioned. My guess is the potential of Tesla Energy enabled by larger better battery supply. Tesla energy is going after a bigger market than auto. The reason very few have focussed on it is because thus far Tesla has not had enough batteries to go after energy as ambitiously as auto. In the Autonomy Day presentation there were clear figures showing how a robo taxi fleet would blow away the competition and be a huge profit generator. Batteries does the same thing when applied to the energy sector.

Or they were waiting for more of the ‘boring’ approvals and license that just recently came through!

 

[MP3Mike]

Help out a non-native speaker here if you could. The wording is a bit confusing to me - and I went to the original Reuters article as well but it reads the same.

So the report opens with: "U.S. electric carmaker Tesla Inc won its case against a former employee..." suggesting the entire case is over. Tripp may appeal I guess but for now Tesla has won, case closed.

But then it says: "The U.S. district court of Nevada said in its ruling that it will grant Tesla’s motions to seal" and that "The court also denied Tripp’s motion for leave to file an additional reply".

You are correct, the news articles are wrong. Tesla hasn't won the case, they won most of the motions they filed. (And Tripp lost most of the motions he filed.) But the actual trial hasn't even started yet.

 

[hoang51]

Paging @Bet TSLA. No manipulation guys it’s just normal action

IMO MMs are trying hard like to keep it bottled up. I think it will fly later in the day. I’m seeing a lot of call buying. If they keep it down today we know what that usually means for Monday.

Call buying for this week's expiration or on another time frame?

 

[Tim S]

Found it! PLL is now up ~68% since this post from August 3rd. Thanks @SarahsDad !

p.s. The Search function on TMC works well.

Update: Trading is halted in PLL, according to ETrade.

 

[vikings123]

Call buying for this week's expiration or on another time frame?

Next week's expiry for 460 and 500 strikes(million dollar bets).

 

[gluu]

Not for the Model 3, anytime soon. Elon already said they'll switch 'eventually', but for now it makes no sense since the already have a functional system producing a profitable Model 3.

Now Models S/X is interesting. Since they have to redesign the rear subframe for the twin-mtr layout, it makes sense to also simplify production techniques to die casting at the same time. The alternative would be to spend even more money on implementing a new stamping/welding system for S/X and we already know its cheaper overall to die-cast.

We may see an example shortly after Bty Day, if the Plaid reveal is the "1 more thing".

Cheers!

If they begin casting S/X, another benefit is that it is only really a die change, the same overall machine can still be used. This is to say some of the capex for the casting machines can be shared with the high volume lines.

 

[elasalle]

Rolled 4 Puts expiring today. (made ~ 1.2K on each)
New Strikes - Oct 16 520. with $113premium. If exercised, cost will now be ~400 (if Sept profits included).

(Plan to sell some CC's Tue afternoon )

 

[gluu]

Always worth posting Rob Maurer videos here just in case people don't religiously watch them. This is his battery day predictions. At the end of the video Rob says he left out one prediction which he believes more important than everything else he mentioned. My guess is the potential of Tesla Energy enabled by larger better battery supply. Tesla energy is going after a bigger market than auto. The reason very few have focussed on it is because thus far Tesla has not had enough batteries to go after energy as ambitiously as auto. In the Autonomy Day presentation there were clear figures showing how a robo taxi fleet would blow away the competition and be a huge profit generator. Batteries does the same thing when applied to the energy sector.

680kW charging would be epic! The new battery architecture should significantly reduce internal resistance, which is a function of state of charge. I think we should see a much better taper profile in the roadrunner packs.

 

[replicant]

Would it make sense to create a thread like this one (to share news that might affect Tesla the company and TSLA the stock price, and discuss both) but without comments on daily SP manipulation and small moves?

For those who care that much about manipulation, a dedicated thread would probably make a better case. I don't understand why we created separate threads for analysts targets, sales stats, technical analysis, industry competition, oil discussions... but not about manipulation. The topic ends up diluted here, and taken seriously only by a minority of contributors.

For those who don't have access to Google, Yahoo Finance or any website that streams real-time stock prices, we could help then by telling when the font goes green or red, and when to line goes vertical, horizontal or sideways. They could visit the thread to learn when the market is open and when it's close.

Just sayin'

 

[Bet TSLA]

If Batter Day is that insane, either

• Teslais certain that current demand far exceed their production capacity
• or they will offer an option to upgrade battery packs for free (like HW3) or at a low price
• or they'll make leases the best option to gets Tesla.

They don't offer buyback options on leases anymore (to remonetize vehicles as robotaxis), so the could extend that program to discourage purchase and favor rental/on-demand. For that they'll need a lot of capital upfront. If their leasing partners are happy with the current situation and if analysts are now able to foresee the opportunity (see recent ~50% WallStreet upgrades) then it makes sense for Tesla to announce this battery roadmap to shareholders and analysts instead of the general public / press.

Iknow Musk prefers straightforward business models (see the turnaround for solar after the merger), but the FSD plans and the need to get the mining industry onboard force them to reveal their cards early and find ways to prevent large scale Osborning.

Unlessthey expect the non-batttery changes to be convincing enough for people to buy 3 and Y w/o the newest batteries, or Tesla will lower their price early before new batteries make their way (bearing the margin loss).

I don't think any of this can be reasonably concluded. Elon is at heart an engineer. What excites him is engineering. He might think that better and easier leases are a good thing but it wouldn't thrill him like some new technology would.

Battery Day will have some awesome new technology that will (eventually) change everything. Or maybe a few new technologies. It's certainly possible that they will have some ready or soon to ship examples of the new technology in action (like a Plaid Model S or the Semi), but all this other stuff is really unlikely. It would just distract from the main event and they won't want to lose focus on the new technology. Remember, it's mind-blowing! Insane! To engineering types anyway.

So, yeah, I'm going to predict that TSLA goes down on the Battery Day news (in the short run anyway) because Wall Street's idea of insanely mind-blowing is utterly incommensurate with Elon's. Different simulations!

And yes, it's possible we'll see a couple of other things like you say, but I see no particular likelihood that we will. Elon will think such things are comparatively boring and somebody will have to convince him that time should be devoted to them.

 

[Big Time]

Stocks go up, stocks go down, we talk about it....

 

[Big Time]

Would it make sense to create a thread like this one (to share news that might affect Tesla the company and TSLA the stock price, and discuss both) but without comments on daily SP manipulation and small moves?

For those who care that much about manipulation, a dedicated thread would probably make a better case. I don't understand why we created separate threads for analysts targets, sales stats, technical analysis, industry competition, oil discussions... but not about manipulation. The topic ends up diluted here, and taken seriously only by a minority of contributors.

For those who don't have access to Google, Yahoo Finance or any website that streams real-time stock prices, we could help then by telling when the font goes green or red, and when to line goes vertical, horizontal or sideways. They could visit the thread to learn when the market is open and when it's close.

Just sayin'

quit clogging up the STOCK investment board, were trying to talk about STOCK movements!

 

[ggr]

Update: Trading is halted in PLL, according to ETrade.

If you look for the Australian stock (PLL.AX on Yahoo Finance) it was up over 15%, but stopped trading there a bit before midday. I found an older article from June 9 but nothing recent.

 

[replicant]

I don't think any of this can be reasonably concluded. Elon is at heart an engineer. What excites him is engineering. He might think that better and easier leases are a good thing but it wouldn't thrill him like some new technology would.

Battery Day will have some awesome new technology that will (eventually) change everything. Or maybe a few new technologies. It's certainly possible that they will have some ready or soon to ship examples of the new technology in action (like a Plaid Model S or the Semi), but all this other stuff is really unlikely. It would just distract from the main event and they won't want to lose focus on the new technology. Remember, it's mind-blowing! Insane! To engineering types anyway.

So, yeah, I'm going to predict that TSLA goes down on the Battery Day news (in the short run anyway) because Wall Street's idea of insanely mind-blowing is utterly incommensurate with Elon's. Different simulations!

And yes, it's possible we'll see a couple of other things like you say, but I see no particular likelihood that we will. Elon will think such things are comparatively boring and somebody will have to convince him that time should be devoted to them.

I wasn't suggesting that Battery Day would be used to announce a new strategy but would make it necessary, to reduce osborning. Of course, Musk wants to talk about science and engineering, but radical change in the product can have significant effect on sales in the short to medium term. Tesla cannot not consider that. They may not talk about it on BD, but they may plan to change their sale strategy accordingly.

 

[replicant]

Stocks go up, stocks go down, we talk about it....

Up it is.