Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Singuy]

Huh? China already sold 22k units in Q3, they're likely to at least sell another 15k units in Sept, even if they're shut down for the last 10 days of the month. If Fremont achieves record deliveries of 115k, then that's over 150k units.

I don't know how any can be thinking that the email, if it's even real, is meant for anyone other than US employees. Maybe to Europe employees as well. We have enough data now to practically guarantee they will overall deliver over 120k which really makes it clear this email is talking about Fremont production vehicles

"This is vital for the California Market". No idea if he means the entire email or just production. Could be the entire email so he is talking about Fremont I only.

It'll be one bear raid if they have a hard time hitting total delieveries with Model Y and China delivering 35-40k this q. That will pin fremont's delieveries to be almost as low as q1 2019.

 

[Prunesquallor]

i dont think he meant the trucks would be driving around in the factory. Rather the pathways between the buildings will be covered as if they were part of the factory.

Well, he called it "internal semi truck roads inside a giant monolithic building". Sounds like a unique factory design enabled by zero-emission logistics/equipment delivery. Perhaps internal bridge cranes directly unloading flatbed trailers and transporting payload anywhere in the factory footprint.

 

[gabeincal]

Well, he called it "internal semi truck roads inside a gigantic monolithic building". Sounds like a unique factory design enabled by zero-emission logistics/equipment delivery. Perhaps internal bridge cranes directly unloading flatbed trailers and transporting payload anywhere in the factory footprint.

Anything coming out of this company is just mind-blowing... HODL.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Replying to myself, some ways Tesla could unveil a Model '2' (Compact hatchback) worldwide with minimal Osborne effect / cannibalization of other models:

1. Introduce premium versions first, so that a premium Model 2 surpasses the cost of a base Model 3.
2. Decrease cost of base Model 3 to more closely approach the Model 2 price range (possible as the cost-savings techniques used to develop the 2 can trickle into the 3).
3. Nerf the Model 2. Minimum necessary range, to be improved via OTA over the years (this is a little sketchy, but perhaps there's an ethical hardware way of doing this).
4. Introduce a few more premium features to base Model 3 (trim, audio, entertainment, etc.)

Just thinking out loud. I just know if a $25,000 Model 2 came out that was as good as a Model 3 (sans storage space) it would be very compelling for a large % of the population. Would put them in a position where they'd need to scale more rapidly than ever before. A 2-year announcement-to-production tease could be detrimental to the business, given that the Model 2 could be an order of magnitude more popular than the 3.

Agree with others, will not happen on Battery Day.

Or just leave that market to VW.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

"This is vital for the California Market". No idea if he means the entire email or just production. Could be the entire email so he is talking about Fremont I only.

It'll be one bear raid if they have a hard time hitting total delieveries with Model Y and China delivering 35-40k this q. That will pin fremont's delieveries to be almost as low as q1 2019.

Exactly, if Elon's talking all of Tesla production/deliveries record which includes China's 35-40k, it would mean a massive sales slump from Fremont. In fact, it would mean demand is down year over year by a huge amount.........even though this would be the first true quarter of Model Y production ramp AND a massive push to Europe as we already see the evidence of. That's so outrageous that there's just no possible way that's true and thus, the email is being meant strictly for Fremont produced cars.

The stock would absolutely tank if all of Tesla deliveries come in at 115k.

Edit: I think we'll get confirmation on this email being just for Fremont at shareholders meeting. Guaranteed someone will either ask if Tesla is still on track for 500k deliveries this year or Tesla mentions that guidance in their general update of the company. If Tesla is sticking with 500k deliveries this year.......then this email is 100% for Fremont production

 

[tinyrodent]

Tesla Sold 35.4% of US Auto Exports in Q2 | ZAP EVs Blog

 

[jw934]

Elon just announced a future business(?) - to provide Dojo for training for any machine learning, as a web service, once Dojo is ready.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1307828265445400579

 

[Chunky Jr.]

I can't imagine expectations being any higher...

 

[mblakele]

Tesla Sold 35.4% of US Auto Exports in Q2 | ZAP EVs Blog

I wish that article had included YoY comparisons. It looks like US exports fell YoY by around 75-80%.

ALFRED Graph | ALFRED | St. Louis Fed

 

[FYMR]

Tesla (TSLA): Elon Musk says 'record deliveries possible' in leaked employee email - Electrek

I think he is just looking to destroy nay sayers and give the bears a poison pill

 

[Robocop]

I can't imagine expectations being any higher...

View attachment 590372

I think in this case he's also being literal, what with the cells themselves being 'big'.

 

[phantasms]

Elon just announced a future business(?) - to provide Dojo for training for any machine learning, as a web service, once Dojo is ready.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1307828265445400579

“car company”

hahahahahaha

 

[Prunesquallor]

Exactly, if Elon's talking all of Tesla production/deliveries record which includes China's 35-40k, it would mean a massive sales slump from Fremont. In fact, it would mean demand is down year over year by a huge amount.........even though this would be the first true quarter of Model Y production ramp AND a massive push to Europe as we already see the evidence of. That's so outrageous that there's just no possible way that's true and thus, the email is being meant strictly for Fremont produced cars.

The stock would absolutely tank if all of Tesla deliveries come in at 115k.

Edit: I think we'll get confirmation on this email being just for Fremont at shareholders meeting. Guaranteed someone will either ask if Tesla is still on track for 500k deliveries this year or Tesla mentions that guidance in their general update of the company. If Tesla is sticking with 500k deliveries this year.......then this email is 100% for Fremont production

Meanwhile, in Twitterville...

https://twitter.com/jpr007/status/1307853619807399938?s=21

 

[printf42]

Elon just announced a future business(?) - to provide Dojo for training for any machine learning, as a web service, once Dojo is ready.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1307828265445400579

Time for bean counters to get the calculator out.

As I said...
Was there anyone talking about this before me?

 

[Nurkbonis]

Nice prediction!

Time for bean counters to get the calculator out.
View attachment 590382
As I said...
Was there anyone talking about this before me?

 

[Mo City]

Time for bean counters to get the calculator out.
View attachment 590382
As I said...
Was there anyone talking about this before me?

Please explain exactly what this means.

 

[Mo City]

Heh heh, macros went south in a hurry.

 

[mongo]

It’s call the “Motor Vehicle Franchise Act.”


Electric vehicles use “motors.

ICE vehicles use “engines.”

I know that I’m being anal retentive; but when writing a new law — isn’t that precisely when one should stick to the letter of of law.

I don’t mean to imply that the law is stupid — okay, you caught me — I do mean it, the law is stupid.

Detroit is the "Motor City".

The Act was created 1981 and set forth this definition for motor vehicle:

(6) "Motor vehicle" means that term as defined in section 33 of the Michigan vehicle code, 1949 PA 300, MCL 257.33, but does not include a bus, a tractor, or farm equipment.

Which references this definition from 1949:

MICHIGAN VEHICLE CODE (EXCERPT)
Act 300 of 1949

257.33 "Motor vehicle" defined.

Sec. 33.

"Motor vehicle" means every vehicle that is self-propelled, but for purposes of chapter 4, motor vehicle does not include industrial equipment such as a forklift, a front-end loader, or other construction equipment that is not subject to registration under this act. Motor vehicle does not include a power-driven mobility device when that power-driven mobility device is being used by an individual with a mobility disability. Motor vehicle does not include an electric patrol vehicle being operated in compliance with the electric patrol vehicle act, 1997 PA 55, MCL 257.1571 to 257.1577. Motor vehicle does not include an electric personal assistive mobility device. Motor vehicle does not include an electric carriage.
Motor vehicle does not include a commercial quadricycle. Motor vehicle does not include an electric bicycle. Motor vehicle does not include an electric skateboard

.

And lest one get excited, the definition of electric carriage:

257.13d "Electric carriage" defined.

Sec. 13d.

"Electric carriage" means a horse-drawn carriage that has been retrofitted to be propelled by an electric motor instead of by a horse and that is used to provide taxi service.

For more etymology: MIT School of Engineering | » What’s the difference between a motor and an engine?

 

[printf42]

Please explain exactly what this means.

You mean explain more than the screenshot?
I think that explains it well enough.

 

[Thekiwi]

The Big Short 2.0:

View attachment 590228

As much as I admire Dr Burry for his foresight before the GFC, he sounds like a complete moron with this post.

By his reasoning, Apple in 2010 was "overvalued" at $190 Billion because it was worth more than majority of the cellphone manufacturers combined market cap at that time. Obviously that would have been an idiotic assumption.

He completely disregards Teslas growth and margins, and instead only considers the market cap of the rest of the low margin / low growth car industry.

There are numerous examples of highly profitable companies in traditionally low margin industries, and those companies achieving market caps far in excess of the typical industry participant.

See:
Apple (in the typically low margin PC / Cellphone / Tablet / wearable accessories industries)
Nike (in the typically low margin Footwear / Apparel industry)
Coke (in the typically low margin "sugar water" industry)
Starbucks (in the typically low margin coffee / cafe industry)
Disney (in the typically low margin consumer merchandise / entertainment industry)

And most relevant....

Porsche (in the typically low margin car industry)

The Porsche example is especially relevant on a basic level when replying to uninformed idiots arguing car companies should never have high valuations. it all comes down to how much profits will be generated in future, it doesn't matter the product or industry and how poorly incumbent competitors are doing.