Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Nocturnal]

This is one of those "general Tesla market demand and personal experience posts" so feel free to skip.

Spoiler: Cyber truck utility

Just got back from camping. I rented a 25 foot RV (ford based vehicle). So obviously when I got back into my P3 it felt like a god damn jet fighter but that isn't the important part.

I've taken my car to campgrounds before to camp and used the RV hookups to charge, nothing new there. What did strike me as interesting this time is that while I was plugging the RV into the 30 amp, the 50AMP was sitting there all lonely. The light bulb went off that once I get my Cybertruck and a camper trailer, I won't even need to move cables around. I could be charging the truck and powering the trailer at the same time. Leave trailer at the campground as your base, and wake up each morning with a full "tank" in the truck for exploring etc.

That doesn't even factor in what a Tesla based RV would be like. Potentially no propane, no diesel/gas. Just show up to the campground and plug in to charge and run accessories. Situationally, a roof full of solar could keep it charged on that alone. This is not only greener, but easier to maintain. Generators wear down based on run time and are just something else to keep repaired. One battery can replace the truck engine, the propane tank, and the generator. The future is looking green. (environmentally and as a TSLA owner) Cyber truck demand will be sky high.

 

[Green Pete]

I think its worth noting how well tesla is doing while the NASDAQ is down 11% since peaking a two-ish weeks ago.

That being said if macros don't turn around Tesla staying flat after battery day would actually still be a bullish sign to me. But again, I am really ignorant of the way the larger markets work.

 

[1101011]

Giving kids and grandkids maximum allowed annual gift in the form of TSLA today before battery day!

Likewise. Shares transferred to daughter and grandson. It's the least I can do.

 

[Artful Dodger]

All my high beta growth stocks took a dump as fast as Tesla. Just because Tesla is now a 400 billion dollar company doesn't mean it's some kind of dividend paying megacap.

As is your habit, you provide no data to support your claim. TSLA's beta is 1.6 yet it dropped 9.3x vs the macros. But we can't compare those to your nebulus claims of other "high beta growth stocks".

You opinions are just that.

 

[AudubonB]

Unpumped oil is rapidly trending to worthless, where is the money gonna come from to buy these expensive trucks when 1/3 of the AK economy vanishes? Spreading out a vast Supercharger network to support a mere 150k households(post oil) is quite an expense.

I think you'll be more reliant on battery swapping in a fully decentralized charging infrastructure. Which actually could end up being just as much fun, if not more!

Yes, the hydrocarbon industry in Alaska is an important part of our GDP.

It is not, however, all that happens here. It's at about 30% of the economic activity, and supporting about 15% of the population.

BUT - it's not just Alaska. Supporting the large, low pop'n density states with SpCs IS and always has been logistically more important for the viability of a charging network than has been assisting in the 'comfort' of having SpCs at a high density in urbanized areas. As all of us know, most charging in the US occurs in one's garage or driveway. You CANNOT - not as a resident, not as a tourist - live in OR visit the Wyomings, the Montanas.....and the Alaskas (and W.Canadian provinces) - without a robust SpC network along those long, long, long miles.

Put this another way: a nice and important and efficacious and green way to offset the reduction in importance of oil in Alaska is to boost its tourist sector....with Superchargers. A big Win all around.

 

[AudubonB]

Given that there are many companies that have multiple pickups (some with over one hundred in a single location) it's probably better to put an "up to" in front of the percentages.

For Alaska (didn't drill through the other states) those data are for private ownership - no commercial fleet #s included.

 

[Jovian]

Found this interesting video of an interview with Dr. Tim Holme (CTO of KCAC / Quantum Scape that Tesla co-founder JB Straubel is on the board of).

For those interested in more of the battery technical side , as well as some interesting tidbits of Jeff Dahn history I wasn't aware of, it's worth a watch. There are also a number of Tesla references, and ie pics of Model S batteries.

I'm about 1/2 way through so far

Tesla's likely historic battery day is tomorrow (9/22/20). This video is an INCREDIBLE primer. It gives a great introduction to lithium ion batteries and their past technological improvements (very technical and detailed). It talks about all the different metrics batteries will need to perform on and how some researchers can artificially pump their numbers, so you know what to look for to not be fooled. It's a great watch for anyone interested in batteries and wants to know how they will continue to improve and change the world in the near future.

I don't think it got enough credit when it was first posted, so I thought it deserved a re-post. Enjoy.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Meanwhile, futures are up modestly. So perhaps the TSLA run-up to battery day won't have to be fighting macros like it was on Friday.

Well, that didn't age well. At least TSLA is close to even despite the drop in the NASDAQ.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Yeah, that was -8.8% in 18 min with 12,039,960 shares (avg 668,887 shr/min).

Not a "Feb 4" big bear raid, but still a substantial raid at 9.3x drop vs. the macros. I think this was done just to freak out the algo's and shake loose some cheep shares b4 BD.

Cheers!

So let me get this straight. These stop-loss doofuses look at their accounts at the end of today: closing price $450, but they sold at $420. Seems like the first time this would happen, behavior might change. But it happens all the time.

 

[amolina]

Just got this, but the link is broken, any ideas what a "CT Order" is?

EDIT: OK, found it on Edgar, it's just an extension to confidential treatment orders

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/999999999720004698/filename1.pdf

View attachment 590596

OOoOoooOo May the speculations begin. Why would Tesla disclose this 1 day before battery day? That too these Confidential treatment order seemed to have been filed 2-3 years ago?? The plot thickens. What acquisition could it be?? Or what dirty little secret does Tesla want to keep under wraps?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Starve the enemy is right. He's going to lock up so much battery-making material that competitors will have trouble getting ahold of it.

... no, he's going to unlease the Kraken, and that beast has an LFP heart.

Cheers!

 

[Todd Burch]

We are being held very close to 0%, because there's never anything fishy going on with TSLA.

 

[Paul_SF]

OOoOoooOo May the speculations begin. Why would Tesla disclose this 1 day before battery day? That too these Confidential treatment order seemed to have been filed 2-3 years ago?? The plot thickens. What acquisition could it be?? Or what dirty little secret does Tesla want to keep under wraps?

Yes, this is top secret and can’t be disclosed yet. It’s alien technology, Musk said it a few times already.









/s

 

[Unpilot]

OOoOoooOo May the speculations begin. Why would Tesla disclose this 1 day before battery day? That too these Confidential treatment order seemed to have been filed 2-3 years ago?? The plot thickens. What acquisition could it be?? Or what dirty little secret does Tesla want to keep under wraps?

Perhaps it has something to do with PLL.
Trading is still halted pending news. News due on the 22nd...hmm.

 

[jbcarioca]

Yes, the hydrocarbon industry in Alaska is an important part of our GDP.

It is not, however, all that happens here. It's at about 30% of the economic activity, and supporting about 15% of the population.

BUT - it's not just Alaska. Supporting the large, low pop'n density states with SpCs IS and always has been logistically more important for the viability of a charging network than has been assisting in the 'comfort' of having SpCs at a high density in urbanized areas. As all of us know, most charging in the US occurs in one's garage or driveway. You CANNOT - not as a resident, not as a tourist - live in OR visit the Wyomings, the Montanas.....and the Alaskas (and W.Canadian provinces) - without a robust SpC network along those long, long, long miles.

Put this another way: a nice and important and efficacious and green way to offset the reduction in importance of oil in Alaska is to boost its tourist sector....with Superchargers. A big Win all around.

Without question a Supercharger network allowing direct access to Paxson, AK would contribute to tourism development and vitalize the hospitality industry. I'll go, even though I'll want a Cybertruck for the trip. I wonder how onerous building permits are in Paxson?

 

[Prunesquallor]

Perhaps it has something to do with PLL.
Trading is still halted pending news. News due on the 22nd...hmm.

I have a small buy order queued up and ready to go.

 

[Artful Dodger]

AirBus just announced they are researching Hydrogen planes

Yep, no probem. Just need a slight bigger fuel tank. /s

Cheers!

 

[Prunesquallor]

Yep, no probem. Just need a slight bigger fuel tank. /s

Cheers!

The good news is it's vertical-takeoff..

 

[LN1_Casey]

A great, car-centric breakdown of how awesome Tesla's are, and why no legacy ICE maker can beat them. It breaks it down simply. Just mistakes that Tesla hasn't been annually profitable yet, that I caught anyway.

 

[ZachF]

Yep, no probem. Just need a slight bigger fuel tank. /s

Cheers!

In all seriousness, a hypersonic plane based off the Skylon would be interesting.