Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ZachF]

Elon’s tweets are actually great news. Not only will they produce their own cells, they will swallow up the supply for others making it more expensive for the competition.

Then Tesla can sell their drivetrains and batteries to the competition for close to the same price while still making a mint. The other manufacturers win and so does Tesla.

Nothing Elon said yesterday is actually news if you were paying attention.

Tesla is using ~50GWh of batteries right now, and will need ~200GWh by 2022/23. Even with a ramp up to 100GWh of roadrunner production they are going to require ~50GWh of outside cell capacity (probably mostly in China and Germany) to meet demand.

 

[ZachF]

Gotta love unnecessary snark.

Was not meant to be snarky towards you, sorry if it came off that way

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

What's all this about a lite rally? I want a heavy rally!

 

[dc_h]

It's not a 2022 technology, I'm sure it's here today - it's current technology, Tesla just needs a couple more facilities building them and in much larger volumes. It does take time to ramp into seriously high volumes and you wouldn't want to ramp too quickly because a slower ramp manages risk that things need to be tweaked. Whenever you go into a new product/technology you don't want to crank out billions of them before you know it's actually a liability for an unknown reason. Risk management is good thing.

And you have to build up your supply chain. They may buy a mine or be signing and signed agreements for several minerals that may have to ramp up, the same as Tesla has to ramp up production lines.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Elon has been getting better with his timing estimates for production, and that makes sense with vehicles. But I'm building in some Elon time into his forecasts for cell production for my personal expectations.

These are entirely new lines including huge amounts of new technology and a new supply chain. The feedback loop on cell longevity is also quite long as cells need to be cycled a significant number of times before there is comfort that the cells are performing as expected and can be moved into full production.

I wouldn't be surprised of super high production slips to 2023. This isn't anything against Elon, just acknowledging that when your forging into the unknown you will inevitably find issues that were unknown. Kind of the same as with FSD - It's difficult to give an accurate timeline when you haven't done the thing before.

I can't imagine that the cell longevity testing has not yet been finished. You're not going to build a pilot line, employing 400 people, and using those cells in consumer cars (which I assume they will be doing), if you are not yet convinced that the cells perform as expected. I think this testing has been done over the last few years. Tesla was already working with Maxwell long before they acquired it in May of 2019. Jeff Dahn's lab must also have been testing these cells for quite some time.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

No, that's not what Elon's tweet says (or implies). I had to re-read it just to be sure so maybe it would be helpful if I posted it again:

The battery day news has to do with batteries for the Semi, CT and Roadster, all vehicles that are not in production yet. It could also go into Plaid Models S and X and they were omitted mention since they will be low volume vehicles. This was likely said to quell hopes we have all seen that the news would have a big immediate impact on current vehicles and avoid the Osborne effect that would have on current models. I assume the biggest news on Battery Day will relate to the scale of planned battery production (and associated cost efficiencies). Obviously it will take some time to reach that planned scale but that doesn't mean initial production of the unreleased vehicles will be delayed or have a different battery format. It also takes time to ramp a new model to full production so it makes sense to ramp the batteries concurrently with vehicle production.

Well if there's no serious high-volume production what is there? Non-serious high production? Medium production? Low production?

Either way the production there is should be used for something right? What would we call whatever is needed for an upgraded S and/or X?. Batteries for maybe 50k cars out of 750k next year (plus batteries made for energy). So that would take maybe 5% of total Tesla batteries. I would call that not serious high-volume.

 

[ZachF]

Well if there's no serious high-volume production what is there? Non-serious high production? Medium production? Low production?

Either way the production there is should be used for something right? What would we call whatever is needed for an upgraded S and/or X?. Batteries for maybe 50k cars out of 750k next year (plus batteries made for energy). So that would take maybe 5% of total Tesla batteries. I would call that not serious high-volume.

probably tens to hundreds of GWh per year

 

[ggies07]

This came up on my Facebook Memories today which I shared exactly three years ago, thought it was fitting for today's event.

 

[CorneliusXX]

I can't imagine that the cell longevity testing has not yet been finished. You're not going to build a pilot line, employing 400 people, and using those cells in consumer cars (which I assume they will be doing), if you are not yet convinced that the cells perform as expected. I think this testing has been done over the last few years. Tesla was already working with Maxwell long before they acquired it in May of 2019. Jeff Dahn's lab must also have been testing these cells for quite some time.

I was more thinking that they need to verify that the cells coming off the line at a mass production level match the performance of what was built and tested in the lab/pilot production line - presumably they would need to initially test these cells to confirm?

 

[viridi]

Interesting how when GM or other autos manufacturers mention future products around EVs, the markets receive such info as great news, even though said auto manufacturers have never delivered on their EV promises. But, when Elon Tweets that what he will presenting at Battery Day will have tremendous long-term value, but that it will be here in about a year rather than tomorrow, the markets see this as a negative, even though Tesla has delivered time-and-time again on its EV promises. I guess the FUD will never end.

 

[Tslynk67]

Well if there's no serious high-volume production what is there? Non-serious high production? Medium production? Low production?

Either way the production there is should be used for something right? What would we call whatever is needed for an upgraded S and/or X?. Batteries for maybe 50k cars out of 750k next year (plus batteries made for energy). So that would take maybe 5% of total Tesla batteries. I would call that not serious high-volume.

100% agree - these new cells will be going into something fairly soon, Plaid MS, maybe Roadster II, definitely. In any case, they would be smart to keep it to a small number of vehicles at first and allow some real field-testing by the early-adopters/fan boys.

Pre-market sure is ugly, but volumes aren't great, so not a lot selling, TBH, I don't think this price is particularly indicative for the day.

 

[Boomer19]

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Everybody on edge this morning I see? Perhaps we should worry less about what Uncle Elon left for us under the Battery Day tree and just embrace the true spirit of of sustainable advancement!

I miss the days when we would all turn off our laptops, share a warm cup of Teslaquila with friends and family around the fire and sing Battery Day carols as our collective societal efficiency increased exponentially.

Those were the days. Everything's all SP and LEAPs now!

 

[Unpilot]

I love the "wall of worry" over a tweet. Think about how ONE company is essentially dragging whole industry's into clean renewable energy.
They are designing and building a path toward TEREWATTS of storage for gawd's sake.

If not for Tesla we would still have a few compliance cars and pilot plant's and committees "looking" into how to scale.
Instead we have one company knocking down doors kicking a$$ and taking names.

The whole time CNBC and there like is throwing grenades in their path.

Battery day is a path forward...I'm super excited I get to come along!

 

[jbcarioca]

Do you really? OK.

To build legally anything in Paxson other than a nuclear power plant or a toxic waste disposal unit, here are all the steps you need to go through:

First, you need to -

1. Build it.

Obviously one needs political connections, so I would certainly seek approval from the mayor, would I not?

 

[jbcarioca]

Do you really? OK.

There's more, of course. The fine print:

To pay all the real estate taxes on your unimproved OR improved residential or commercial property:

First you need to -

1. Forget about it. There aren't any. Zero.

Excellent news. Now for battery day!

 

[copyhacker]

Back in 2017 Tesla asked that certain confidential information in their 10-k fillings not be made public. The sec granted this ask. Today, Tesla asked them to extend that confidentiality to 2023.
You can see details here: https://sec.report/Document/9999999997-20-004698/

This is why I think this filing is brought to you by the letters F, C, and A.

The Milton Mile Battery, on the other hand, keeps the headlights and radio on while a vehicle rolls downhill.

Literally spit coffee reading that, thanks for making my morning.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

With the benefit of a full night's sleep, I've done a full 180 on this tweet. Elon purposely tamping down SP today. I don't see any other logical explanation.

I thought he was simply giving an anti-osborning message, but if he was......why Battery Day Eve @ 4:05? That's designed to cap pre-Battery Day excitement and run-up. Probably saved us money.

I thought we'd be flat right through this week, Elon probably saw a huge bubble coming today that would pop on Thursday. Keeping day traders on their toes!

 

[Boomer19]

every once in a while EM has to tamp out the flames...(even if a few of of them have been stoked by himself along the way) - Mule beat me to it!

its one thing to have self-anointed tesla experts taking every word and spinning it into some crazy outcome that will never happen,
but i think most importantly,
he doesnt want speculators (thus the whole entrenched mechanism), or anyone not inline with tesla mission,
- controlling the narrative -

we see it all the time, people try to control the narrative...
- for attention
- to capitalize
- attempt/pretend to do the above but unintentionally display idiocy because their whole life is denial (no references needed)
- sometimes a combo of any or all of above

 

[jbcarioca]

Can we have a separate thread dedicated to the definition of LA Metro?

As a LA Metro born Native Son I recognize that LA Metrois seriously On Topic due to its importance to Tesla. OTOH, like many Native Sons of my vintage I live as far away from there as I reasonably can and remain in the Western Hemisphere. Seriously, without LA Metro TSLA would look more than a trifle sickly.